Fantasy football: Suspension affects Alvin Kamara’s value, but it could’ve been worse
There’s relatively good news for fantasy football managers in knowing that the NFL is suspending New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara for only three games for his role in an off-field fight 18 months ago in Las Vegas. For one, this information comes before the first weekend of August, generally well before most leagues draft. It is always good to have clarity, so adjust your personal rankings now, if you so desire.
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Second, a three-game penalty is not such a crisis when the league had precedent to levy greater discipline, perhaps double the number of missed games. With no bye weeks until October, your fantasy team will be fine, as Kamara must miss games versus the Titans, Panthers and Packers. He can practice with the team until Week 1, and he can return to play in Week 4 against the Buccaneers.
The Saints likely have known of a pending suspension announcement of some sort for a while, thus the organization signed notable free agent Jamaal Williams and drafted TCU running back Kendre Miller in the third round. Williams rushed for 17 touchdowns last season for the Detroit Lions. Few believe Williams will replicate his achievement (our own Mike Clay predicts considerably fewer TDs), but he does have a clear-cut role. However, I do not think this suspension news alters it so much.
The once-electrifying Kamara caught more than 80 passes in each of his first four NFL seasons, but he has struggled with inefficiency since then, and he saw his volume drop the past two seasons. Kamara also has not played a full NFL season since he was a rookie in 2017. Still, Williams has never caught 40 passes in any season. Miller caught only 16 passes in college last season, but the Saints might be preparing him for a larger, more significant role there. Eno Benjamin remains in the backfield from last season.
ESPN’s preseason staff rankings feature Kamara outside of RB2 range, for the first time I can recall. Although I cannot speak for others, my ranking of Kamara at No. 25 had potential suspension baked in already. If anything, I might move Kamara up soon. The suspension could have been worse, and I think we all knew something was coming.
I also ranked Williams better than others, not expecting another ridiculous 17 celebrations, but thinking double digits with another 1,000 rushing yards actually was possible. He’s a reliable player, more valuable in non-PPR formats, for sure (he caught 12 passes all last season), but his signing indicated the Saints were likely to reduce Kamara’s rushing attempts anyway.
Kamara remains ranked 25th in PPR formats for me. There is obvious PPR upside for his receiving ability, and most fantasy managers choose five or six running backs in standard drafts anyway. Most players are healthy entering the season, and perhaps sitting a trio of early games will help keep Kamara healthy in December. Fantasy managers should be able to escape September with two other running backs. Williams moves up to No. 30 for me. Hey, I just believe in him more than others. Nobody will know the truth for months. Miller enters my top 50, but we still do not know how much of a role he will play in September, if any.