Fantasy football D/ST road map: Top streaming options for Weeks 9 through 12
More Teams. More Games.
Tristan H. Cockcroft explains why it’s time to use the Giants’ defense in fantasy and avoid the Eagles’ defense. (0:52)
Eight weeks’ worth of data provides us with plenty of fantasy football takeaways, and we’re at the stage of the season where perhaps you’ve found yourself a trustworthy weekly team defense/special teams (D/ST). If not, it’s still a-OK — and even recommended, if you find a good plug-in opportunity — to stream the position.
We know now that the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns and (surprise!) Jacksonville Jaguars — all of which were drafted eighth or worse in drafts among D/STs — have emerged as generally reliable weekly fantasy options. The Ravens, the best of this quartet, have the second-most fantasy points per game (9.9) and have scored at least five fantasy points in all eight games, the only defense that can claim that. They were the No. 12 D/ST selected on average in the preseason.
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If you roster any of those four teams, the plenty-productive Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, or perhaps even the New Orleans Saints, there’s a strong case to be made to stick with your D/ST. That’s especially true for teams like the Browns, Cowboys and Jets, all of which have already had their bye weeks and won’t force you to free agency for a bye-week sub.
Still, at least a few of those teams will either have an upcoming bye week or will face some brutal matchups during the next four weeks. As you might expect, plenty of fantasy managers have yet to land on a trustworthy weekly unit and will continue to lean on a streaming approach at D/ST — not that there’s anything wrong with that!
So let’s update our D/ST road map, to give fantasy managers a head start on how to navigate through the critical weeks just ahead of our playoffs.
Using my own assessment of these teams’ offenses, while also accounting for schedule-adjusted, points-allowed data from the past five weeks and the season as a whole, here are the five most fantasy-friendly matchups for a defense:
1. New York Giants: Added 5.2 fantasy PPG to a D/ST’s total the past five weeks, and 5.9 for the season. They average an NFL-worst 11.9 points per game and are tied for most sacks allowed (41).
2. Las Vegas Raiders: Added 7.0 fantasy PPG to D/STs the past five weeks.
3. New England Patriots: Added 5.4 fantasy PPG to D/STs the past five weeks and are averaging 14.8 PPG (second worst).
4. Chicago Bears: Added 2.8 fantasy PPG to D/STs the past five weeks and 4.7 for the season.
5. Carolina Panthers: Added 3.6 fantasy PPG to D/STs the past five weeks.
Other offenses to exploit: Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, Washington Commanders.
And here are my five least fantasy-friendly matchups:
1. San Francisco 49ers: Subtracted 5.8 fantasy PPG from a D/ST’s total the past five weeks, and 5.7 for the season. They average 27.3 PPG (fifth in NFL).
2. Buffalo Bills: Subtracted 4.2 fantasy PPG the past five weeks.
3. Los Angeles Chargers: Subtracted 4.6 fantasy PPG for the season. They rank fourth best in ESPN’s Offensive Efficiency metric.
4. Detroit Lions: Subtracted 4.1 fantasy PPG the past five weeks.
5. Houston Texans: Subtracted 4.3 points the past five weeks. They have an NFL-low four turnovers despite starting a rookie quarterback.
Other offenses to avoid: Ravens, Chiefs, Miami Dolphins.
Taking into account those matchup grades, listed below are both monthly and week-by-week streaming picks. This will take us through the week of Thanksgiving, after which point we’ll refresh the road map for the fantasy playoff weeks.
Most of the D/ST picks below are rostered in fewer than one-third of ESPN leagues, though there are a few exceptions with roster percentages below 50%.
The D/ST to lock in for Weeks 9-12: The Giants’ offense might be terrible, but their defense has been unexpectedly productive over the past four weeks, which included a pair of tough-as-nails matchups against the Bills and Dolphins, in which they scored six and seven points. With the possible exception of the Cowboys in Week 10, the Giants’ upcoming schedule (@LV, @DAL, @WAS, NE) is exceedingly favorable and worth locking them in. The Giants D/ST is rostered in only 21.1% of ESPN leagues.
Top Week 9 picks: Besides the Giants, the opposing Raiders (11.8% rostered) scored a combined 28 fantasy points from Weeks 5-7 while facing plus matchups, thanks largely to the strong play of defensive end Maxx Crosby. The Commanders (31.6%) and Patriots (31.2%), also going head-to-head, both warrant a look as well. The Commanders have generally stepped up defensively when facing weaker passing offenses, while the Patriots benefit from a game against Sam Howell, on pace for a record number of times sacked.
Avoid: The Jets’ defense (81.2% rostered) has been playing excellent football of late — 40 fantasy points in their past three games — but a Monday Night Football assignment against the Chargers represents another of their many treacherous 2023 matchups. Avoid them if at all possible, and steer clear of both the Chiefs (71.9%) and Dolphins (71.9%) defenses in what should be a high-scoring, head-to-head meeting in Germany.
Top Week 10 picks: This is the weakest week of the season so far on the streaming front, even with a quartet of potent offenses on their byes (Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles). The Thursday Night Football contest is a matchup of two bad teams, the Panthers (8.1% rostered) and Bears (1.7%), and the short week might contribute to a potentially defense-oriented, lower-scoring game. Additionally, the Colts (9.2%, NE) could be engaged in a similar type of game in Germany.
Avoid: The only highly rostered D/ST that fits the bill here is the Browns (77.5% rostered, @BAL), who scored a modest six fantasy points in their Week 4 meeting against the Ravens at home.
Top Week 11 picks: The Giants aren’t the only streaming D/ST standouts, as their opponents, the Commanders (31.6%), scored eight fantasy points in the teams’ Week 7 meeting (the Giants scored 15). The Chargers (6.5%, @GB) could also capitalize upon Packers quarterback Jordan Love’s recent struggles, as they have delivered double-digit fantasy point totals in their two plus matchups thus far (16 in Week 4 versus the Raiders, 10 in Week 8 versus the Bears).
Avoid: Can the Jets (81.2% rostered, @BUF) repeat their Week 1 performance against these Bills, when they surprised with 20 fantasy points? It doesn’t seem likely, especially in a road game. Additionally, the Monday Night Football matchup between the Eagles (93.1%) and Chiefs (71.9%) seems likely to be high-scoring, making neither defense an attractive fantasy choice.
Top Week 12 picks: Thanksgiving week gives us no byes, and with it a greater number of streaming options. The Lions (45.6%, GB) scored 11 points against the Packers in their Week 4 meeting, and are certainly worth the Thanksgiving Day start. Among more available D/STs, the Minnesota Vikings (10.8%, CHI) stand out in a big way, having scored their season-best 22 fantasy points in the teams’ Week 4 meeting. The Tennessee Titans (2.7%, CAR) should be able to handle the rebuilding Panthers offense. And in their head-to-head matchup, the Patriots (31.2%) and Giants (21.1%) should both be able to capitalize on the other’s offensive issues.
Avoid: The Eagles should be the most-avoided D/ST during this four-week span, with matchups against the Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills sandwiching their Week 10 bye. The Eagles scored 11 fantasy points against the Dolphins (a bad matchup) in Week 7 and minus-2 against the Commanders (a good matchup) in Week 8, illustrating their hit-or-miss nature. Additionally, with no byes and a lot of talented defenses facing tough matchups, this is a week to go heavy on streaming, especially if you usually count on the Ravens (@LAC), Jets (MIA) or Jaguars (@HOU).