Fantasy basketball tips and projections for Tuesday
New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.
History was in the air Monday night. Eighteen years to the day that Kobe Bryant scored a Los Angeles Lakers franchise record 81 points in a defining performance, Joel Embiid scored 70 points while Karl-Anthony Towns dropped 62 to establish new respective career and franchise scoring peaks.
You know it’s an amazing accomplishment when one surpasses scoring records set long ago by Wilt Chamberlain. Monday night’s opus marked the third-highest game score of all-time, behind only a classic Michael Jordan outing and Bryant’s 81-point showing. Posting the highest player efficiency rating (PER) while also sustaining 50.6 points scored per 48 minutes this season, good for the highest clip in NBA history, Embiid’s fantasy investors are feeling good these days.
While Towns and the Minnesota Timberwolves lost to the lowly Charlotte Hornets, his 62 points came on brilliant efficiency and remind us of how unique his skill set is as one of the greatest shooters of all time at his position. With a far lower usage rate than Embiid’s league-leading mark, Towns isn’t as likely to sustain such historic highs, but his fantasy managers would be wise to get a relatively massive haul in trade talks given that he still sits 13th overall on the Player Rater.
In terms of performances from Monday that lead to actionable decisions for fantasy managers, we can appreciate the statistical surge Isaiah Stewart (8.3% rostered in ESPN leagues) is enjoying in Detroit. “Beef Stew” posted 19 points, eight boards and a career-high five blocks in a close loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. With a fun mix of 3-point production rebounding and rim protection, Stewart is worth a look in most formats.
We can only hope Tuesday’s slate can maintain the offensive momentum, featuring five games, four of which claim totals of at least 232 points at ESPN BET signaling potential for a worthy second act of busy box scores.
Injuries of note ahead of Tuesday night’s action include the Los Angeles Lakers resting LeBron James against the rival LA Clippers. This absence vaults D’Angelo Russell posters”>D’Angelo Russell into a valuable creation role. His usage rate leaps a team-high four percent, and his fantasy production (using DraftKings’ scoring key) increases by nearly seven fantasy points per 36 minutes with James off the court.
Isaiah Hartenstein (44.6%) is listed as questionable for the New York Knicks’ borough battle with the Brooklyn Nets. If Hartenstein sits, Precious Achiuwa (1.9%), who just delivered an efficient double-double this past weekend, will start in his place.
The marquee fantasy matchup of the night might just be between Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans. This game features the night’s highest total at 238.5 points. Except for the battle of Los Angeles, each of the other four games produce players that make the streaming section below.
Cameron Johnson, SG/PF, Brooklyn Nets (59.5%)
Johnson is a talented floor-spacer with complementary playmaking and defensive rates. He will be tasked with running through screens and scoring whenever possible against a solid Knicks defense Tuesday night.
Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers (50.6% rostered in ESPN leagues)
Portland won’t have Shaedon Sharpe‘s high-usage game on the floor, which means Henderson could command more minutes, touches, and shots. While the Thunder are a tough defensive matchup, Henderson’s upside is too much to pass on.
Herbert Jones, SF/PF (26.4%) and Trey Murphy III, SG/SF (13.4%), New Orleans Pelicans
Both Jones and Murphy could shine in Tuesday night’s matchup with the Utah Jazz. Murphy is the classic volume shooter with strong off-ball defensive action, while Jones is a bit of a defensive unicorn that can swat shots at a center-like rate while also pushing the ball to others on offense.
Donte DiVincenzo, SG, New York Knicks (17.1%)
DiVincenzo has served as a glue guy for the Knicks in a Bruce Brown-like role. He can accumulate solid scoring, shooting, rebounding and steal results in any given matchup. The Nets lack point-of-attack defensive depth, offering some upside to DiVincenzo’s profile Tuesday night.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver Nuggets (19.7% rostered in ESPN leagues)
KCP’s scoring prowess rarely wows, but his value lies in his deceptive defensive skill. The veteran wing is fourth on the Player Rater in added value via steals this season, making him a unique specialist against one of the fastest offenses in the league in Indiana.
Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics.* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.
Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
BPI Projection: Nuggets in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Julian Strawther, (GTD – Knee); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee)
Pacers: Isaiah Jackson, (GTD – Concussion); Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD – Hamstring)
Nuggets projections:
Nikola Jokic, C: 54.8 FPTS (26.0 pts, 11.6 reb, 8.2 ast)
Jamal Murray, PG: 42.6 FPTS (23.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.2 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Aaron Gordon, PF: 30.5 FPTS (16.5 pts, 6.4 reb, 2.8 ast)
Michael Porter Jr., SF: 28.7 FPTS (14.8 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.3 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Reggie Jackson, PG: 21.0 FPTS (10.3 pts, 2.2 reb, 3.7 ast)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG/SF: 21.0 FPTS (9.9 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.8 ast)
Peyton Watson, SF: 13.8 FPTS (7.4 pts, 2.5 reb, 0.9 ast)
Pacers projections:
Pascal Siakam, PF/C: 40.9 FPTS (23.9 pts, 5.9 reb, 4.7 ast)
Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG: 32.0 FPTS (15.0 pts, 2.6 reb, 6.0 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Myles Turner, C: 27.8 FPTS (16.2 pts, 6.7 reb, 1.3 ast, 2.0 blk)
Buddy Hield, SG/SF: 25.5 FPTS (12.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.0 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Bennedict Mathurin, SG/SF: 20.4 FPTS (12.9 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.8 ast)
Aaron Nesmith, SF: 19.5 FPTS (10.6 pts, 3.7 reb, 0.8 ast)
T.J. McConnell, PG: 17.8 FPTS (8.4 pts, 2.5 reb, 3.2 ast)
New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. Barclays Center, New York
BPI Projection: Knicks in the 5th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Knicks: None reported
Nets: Ben Simmons, (GTD – Back); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Knicks projections:
Julius Randle, PF: 45.5 FPTS (26.7 pts, 8.2 reb, 5.6 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Jalen Brunson, PG/SG: 44.1 FPTS (26.8 pts, 3.6 reb, 6.0 ast, 2.9 3PM)
OG Anunoby, SF: 31.0 FPTS (16.2 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.5 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Isaiah Hartenstein, PF/C: 30.8 FPTS (12.9 pts, 10.1 reb, 2.2 ast, 1.2 blk)
Donte DiVincenzo, SG: 25.6 FPTS (13.0 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Mitchell Robinson, C: 19.0 FPTS (6.9 pts, 8.4 reb, 0.8 ast, 1.4 blk)
Josh Hart, SG/SF: 17.5 FPTS (6.7 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.8 ast)
Nets projections:
Mikal Bridges, SG/SF: 34.5 FPTS (20.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 3.7 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Nic Claxton, PF/C: 28.0 FPTS (13.4 pts, 10.0 reb, 1.5 ast, 2.1 blk)
Spencer Dinwiddie, PG/SG: 25.8 FPTS (11.5 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Cam Thomas, SG: 22.7 FPTS (15.4 pts, 1.9 reb, 2.1 ast)
Cameron Johnson, SF/PF: 20.2 FPTS (9.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Dennis Smith Jr., PG: 17.9 FPTS (6.9 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.5 ast)
Dorian Finney-Smith, SF/PF: 16.6 FPTS (7.1 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.2 ast)
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
BPI Projection: Pelicans in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Jazz: None reported
Pelicans: Dereon Seabron, (GTD – Undisclosed); Matt Ryan, (OUT – Elbow)
Jazz projections:
Lauri Markkanen, SF/PF: 43.0 FPTS (23.5 pts, 9.4 reb, 2.4 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Collin Sexton, PG/SG: 30.0 FPTS (17.4 pts, 3.1 reb, 3.9 ast)
Jordan Clarkson, SG: 27.9 FPTS (15.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 4.9 ast, 1.8 3PM)
John Collins, PF: 22.3 FPTS (11.7 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.0 ast)
Keyonte George, PG/SG: 20.0 FPTS (9.9 pts, 2.4 reb, 3.4 ast)
Walker Kessler, C: 17.3 FPTS (7.8 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.5 blk)
Talen Horton-Tucker, SG/SF: 16.1 FPTS (6.5 pts, 1.8 reb, 3.0 ast)
Pelicans projections:
Brandon Ingram, SF/PF: 41.2 FPTS (23.1 pts, 4.8 reb, 5.3 ast)
CJ McCollum, PG/SG: 35.5 FPTS (17.9 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.0 ast, 2.9 3PM)
Zion Williamson, PF: 35.2 FPTS (20.4 pts, 5.1 reb, 4.7 ast)
Jonas Valanciunas, C: 28.9 FPTS (12.5 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.4 blk)
Herbert Jones, SF/PF: 18.2 FPTS (7.9 pts, 3.0 reb, 2.1 ast)
Trey Murphy III, SG/SF: 17.5 FPTS (7.8 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.3 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Jordan Hawkins, SG: 16.2 FPTS (8.6 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
BPI Projection: Thunder in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Blazers: Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT – Abdomen)
Thunder: None reported
Blazers projections:
Anfernee Simons, PG/SG: 37.4 FPTS (22.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 4.8 ast, 3.1 3PM)
Jerami Grant, PF: 32.4 FPTS (21.8 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.5 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Deandre Ayton, C: 28.4 FPTS (13.8 pts, 10.3 reb, 1.6 ast)
Malcolm Brogdon, PG/SG: 26.0 FPTS (13.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 4.0 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Jabari Walker, PF: 25.5 FPTS (12.6 pts, 9.0 reb, 1.3 ast)
Scoot Henderson, PG: 18.1 FPTS (11.8 pts, 2.3 reb, 3.5 ast)
Duop Reath, C: 17.8 FPTS (8.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.0 ast)
Thunder projections:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG: 52.0 FPTS (29.1 pts, 5.5 reb, 5.7 ast)
Jalen Williams, SG/SF/PF: 38.4 FPTS (19.0 pts, 4.2 reb, 4.7 ast)
Chet Holmgren, PF/C: 34.4 FPTS (16.8 pts, 6.5 reb, 3.4 ast, 2.2 blk)
Josh Giddey, PG/SG/PF: 28.2 FPTS (12.2 pts, 6.1 reb, 4.4 ast)
Luguentz Dort, SG/SF: 23.5 FPTS (11.9 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Cason Wallace, PG/SG: 16.3 FPTS (7.1 pts, 2.4 reb, 1.2 ast)
Isaiah Joe, SG: 14.0 FPTS (6.8 pts, 1.7 reb, 0.7 ast)
Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers
10 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
BPI Projection: Clippers in the 3rd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Lakers: Taurean Prince, (NA – Knee); Gabe Vincent, (OUT – Knee)
Clippers: Moussa Diabate, (GTD – Hand)
Lakers projections:
Anthony Davis, PF/C: 50.4 FPTS (27.2 pts, 12.3 reb, 4.9 ast, 2.2 blk)
D’Angelo Russell posters”>D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG: 38.1 FPTS (20.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.1 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Austin Reaves, SG/SF: 34.7 FPTS (17.4 pts, 4.7 reb, 5.5 ast)
Jarred Vanderbilt, PF: 18.1 FPTS (7.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.4 ast)
Rui Hachimura, SF/PF: 17.8 FPTS (10.2 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.1 ast)
Taurean Prince, SF: 16.6 FPTS (7.9 pts, 2.4 reb, 1.4 ast)
Max Christie, SG: 14.0 FPTS (6.9 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.2 ast)
Clippers projections:
Kawhi Leonard, SF/PF: 45.0 FPTS (24.3 pts, 6.1 reb, 3.7 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Paul George, SG/SF/PF: 43.9 FPTS (25.0 pts, 5.5 reb, 3.5 ast, 3.5 3PM)
James Harden, PG/SG: 35.8 FPTS (15.1 pts, 4.7 reb, 7.3 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Ivica Zubac, C: 24.7 FPTS (10.9 pts, 9.0 reb, 1.5 ast)
Russell Westbrook, PG: 23.4 FPTS (10.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 4.0 ast)
Norman Powell, SG/SF: 17.9 FPTS (10.7 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.1 ast)
Joshua Primo, SG: 14.8 FPTS (5.7 pts, 2.4 reb, 3.4 ast)