Fantasy basketball tips and projections for Thursday
New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.
Wednesday’s six-game schedule in the NBA included some big lines from known stars, but also some key contributions from players flying under the radar in fantasy regards.
For instance, while the Dallas Mavericks built a big lead heading into the final quarter last night against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Caris LeVert — rostered in 43% of ESPN men’s basketball leagues — was brilliant in helping fuel a dramatic comeback win via 29 points and seven dimes. Even point guard Craig Porter (4.5%) has surfaced as a viable play with Donovan Mitchell sidelined by an illness and Darius Garland on the mend from a broken jaw.
Shifting to Thursday’s eight-game slate, the good news is every contest has a total of at least 224 points, evidence of a bevy of offensively-friendly climates to choose from. A few scenarios stand out for fantasy purposes, such as from this compelling Grizzlies vs. Nuggets matchup in Denver. Two-way guard Marcus Smart is still a free agent in nearly 40% of ESPN leagues and yet just swiped five steals in his return to action on Tuesday.
For the Pistons, we find Jalen Duren (64.0%) set to shine against the Celtics with Isaiah Stewart ruled out (toe). Duren’s rebounding props also appear appealing given how dominant he’s proven at cleaning the glass.
For tonight’s tilt between the Jazz and Pelicans, it will Interesting to watch how the Jazz backcourt rotation plays out now that the group is healthy. More specifically, is rookie Keyonte George (6.5%) back to lead distributor duties? After all, that contest is tied for the highest total (240.5) of the night.
My favorite fantasy climate of the night features the Chicago Bulls hosting the Indiana Pacers in the other game with a total of 240.5 points. With Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine ruled out for the Bulls, we find some strong streaming candidates in the section below.
Andre Drummond, C, Bulls (14.1%): The top rebounding result of the season came earlier this week with Drummond hauling in 25 boards while starting in place of Vucevic. Drummond also scored 24 points and produced five combined blocks and steals in that game, confirming he’s a top play against an undersized and uptempo Indiana team.
Jaime Jaquez Jr., SF (28.3%), Heat: An incredible Christmas showing against the Sixers saw this rookie deliver a 31-point double-double on an endless series of savvy drives and jumpers. The Heat truly trust Jaquez as a key rotation contributor and a glance at the injury report reveals both Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson are ailing, adding to the upside tonight against the Warriors.
Brandin Podziemski, SG, Warriors (15.8%): A rookie revelation for the Warriors this season, “Podz” has been producing as a scorer, passers, rebounder, and defender at high rates since shifting to the starting lineup in the wake of Draymond Green‘s suspension. One of my favorites plays of the night is riding with this rising rookie against the Heat this evening.
Trey Murphy III, SG/SF, Pelicans (26.6%): Even if his scoring has dipped a bit the past week, the notable news from his game log his how many minutes Murphy is logging in the Pelicans’ rotation; he’s averaged 33 MPG the past week and should be an integral part of perimeter scoring and defense for New Orleans this evening.
Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics.* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.
BPI Projection: Celtics in the 6th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Pistons: Monte Morris, (OUT – Quadriceps); Ausar Thompson, (GTD – Illness); Killian Hayes, (GTD – Illness); Isaiah Stewart, (OUT – Toe)
Celtics: Jaylen Brown, (GTD – Back); Jayson Tatum, (NA – Ankle); Lamar Stevens, (GTD – Illness); Oshae Brissett, (NA – Illness); Svi Mykhailiuk, (GTD – Heel)
Pistons projections:
Cade Cunningham, PG/SG: 40.2 FPTS (24.0 pts, 3.9 reb, 7.0 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Bojan Bogdanovic, SF/PF: 30.4 FPTS (19.8 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.6 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Jaden Ivey, PG/SG: 25.1 FPTS (14.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.1 ast)
Jalen Duren, C: 24.9 FPTS (11.5 pts, 9.8 reb, 2.2 ast, 1.2 blk)
Marvin Bagley III, PF/C: 19.8 FPTS (12.0 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.0 ast)
Ausar Thompson, SG/SF: 17.8 FPTS (9.9 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.3 ast)
James Wiseman, C: 15.6 FPTS (7.4 pts, 5.0 reb, 0.8 ast)
Celtics projections:
Jayson Tatum, SF/PF: 48.4 FPTS (29.7 pts, 7.9 reb, 4.8 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Jrue Holiday, PG/SG: 35.1 FPTS (15.4 pts, 6.6 reb, 5.3 ast)
Derrick White, PG/SG: 34.4 FPTS (15.9 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.3 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C: 33.6 FPTS (19.9 pts, 6.9 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.8 blk)
Sam Hauser, SF: 18.5 FPTS (8.5 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.1 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Al Horford, PF/C: 18.0 FPTS (5.6 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.9 ast)
Payton Pritchard, PG: 17.6 FPTS (8.4 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.3 ast)
BPI Projection: Pacers in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Pacers: Bruce Brown, (OUT – Knee)
Bulls: Nikola Vucevic, (OUT – Thigh); Torrey Craig, (OUT – Heel); Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee); Onuralp Bitim, (OUT – Nose); Zach LaVine, (OUT – Foot)
Pacers projections:
Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG: 49.5 FPTS (24.6 pts, 4.0 reb, 9.3 ast, 3.3 3PM)
Buddy Hield, SG/SF: 28.0 FPTS (13.3 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.6 ast, 2.9 3PM)
Myles Turner, C: 25.5 FPTS (14.3 pts, 7.4 reb, 0.8 ast, 1.7 blk)
Obi Toppin, PF: 23.3 FPTS (12.1 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.4 ast)
Aaron Nesmith, SF: 22.2 FPTS (12.0 pts, 3.7 reb, 0.8 ast)
Bennedict Mathurin, SG/SF: 21.5 FPTS (13.7 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.9 ast)
Andrew Nembhard, PG/SG: 18.4 FPTS (8.4 pts, 2.3 reb, 3.5 ast)
Bulls projections:
DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF: 46.3 FPTS (28.1 pts, 4.2 reb, 6.1 ast)
Coby White, PG/SG: 39.1 FPTS (19.8 pts, 4.8 reb, 5.6 ast, 3.1 3PM)
Patrick Williams, SF/PF: 27.0 FPTS (16.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.8 ast)
Alex Caruso, PG/SG: 23.9 FPTS (10.5 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.6 ast)
Andre Drummond, C: 19.3 FPTS (8.2 pts, 7.5 reb, 0.8 ast)
Ayo Dosunmu, SG: 18.3 FPTS (9.0 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.8 ast)
Jevon Carter, PG: 15.4 FPTS (7.4 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.6 ast)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves in the 5th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Kyrie Irving, (GTD – Heel); Maxi Kleber, (GTD – Toe)
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles); Karl-Anthony Towns, (GTD – Knee)
Mavericks projections:
Luka Doncic, PG: 57.1 FPTS (32.7 pts, 8.4 reb, 8.0 ast, 3.7 3PM)
Dante Exum, PG: 24.7 FPTS (13.6 pts, 4.4 reb, 2.3 ast)
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF: 24.0 FPTS (13.7 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.2 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Derrick Jones Jr., SF: 19.4 FPTS (9.8 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.1 ast)
Dereck Lively II, C: 18.7 FPTS (9.9 pts, 4.8 reb, 1.1 ast)
Grant Williams, PF: 17.4 FPTS (8.1 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.4 ast)
Josh Green, SG/SF: 14.9 FPTS (7.0 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.7 ast)
Timberwolves projections:
Anthony Edwards, SG/SF: 44.0 FPTS (26.3 pts, 5.2 reb, 5.6 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C: 39.9 FPTS (21.6 pts, 9.6 reb, 3.6 ast)
Rudy Gobert, C: 30.6 FPTS (13.8 pts, 12.5 reb, 1.5 ast, 2.0 blk)
Mike Conley, PG: 26.4 FPTS (10.3 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.3 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Jaden McDaniels, SF: 22.1 FPTS (12.7 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.3 ast)
Naz Reid, PF/C: 18.8 FPTS (10.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.0 ast)
Kyle Anderson, SF/PF: 16.6 FPTS (7.2 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.3 ast)
BPI Projection: Pelicans in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Jazz: Simone Fontecchio, (GTD – Illness)
Pelicans: Matt Ryan, (OUT – Elbow); Larry Nance Jr., (GTD – Ribs)
Jazz projections:
Lauri Markkanen, SF/PF: 40.1 FPTS (22.9 pts, 8.4 reb, 1.7 ast, 3.1 3PM)
Collin Sexton, PG/SG: 25.7 FPTS (15.3 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.3 ast)
Jordan Clarkson, SG: 25.3 FPTS (14.8 pts, 2.7 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.8 3PM)
John Collins, PF: 22.9 FPTS (12.3 pts, 7.7 reb, 0.9 ast)
Talen Horton-Tucker, SG/SF: 20.2 FPTS (10.8 pts, 2.5 reb, 3.2 ast)
Kris Dunn, PG: 20.1 FPTS (8.9 pts, 4.4 reb, 3.3 ast)
Walker Kessler, C: 18.1 FPTS (8.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.0 ast, 3.1 blk)
Pelicans projections:
Brandon Ingram, SF/PF: 40.9 FPTS (24.1 pts, 5.0 reb, 5.1 ast)
CJ McCollum, PG/SG: 39.0 FPTS (20.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 4.6 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Zion Williamson, PF: 36.1 FPTS (21.7 pts, 5.8 reb, 4.5 ast)
Jonas Valanciunas, C: 30.9 FPTS (14.3 pts, 10.3 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.2 blk)
Herbert Jones, SF/PF: 17.9 FPTS (7.9 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.3 ast)
Trey Murphy III, SG/SF: 17.3 FPTS (7.8 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.3 ast)
Dyson Daniels, PG/SG: 14.5 FPTS (5.5 pts, 3.0 reb, 2.1 ast)
BPI Projection: Nuggets in the 8th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee); Ja Morant, (GTD – Illness); Derrick Rose, (OUT – Hamstring); Luke Kennard, (OUT – Knee)
Nuggets: Aaron Gordon, (OUT – Face); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee)
Grizzlies projections:
Ja Morant, PG: 42.9 FPTS (24.1 pts, 5.7 reb, 6.8 ast)
Desmond Bane, SG/SF: 41.2 FPTS (24.0 pts, 4.9 reb, 5.2 ast, 3.4 3PM)
Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C: 26.9 FPTS (18.2 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.6 blk)
Marcus Smart, PG/SG: 22.7 FPTS (9.1 pts, 2.4 reb, 4.0 ast)
Santi Aldama, PF/C: 21.0 FPTS (10.1 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.7 ast)
Vince Williams Jr., SF: 16.1 FPTS (5.7 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.3 ast)
Bismack Biyombo, C: 15.4 FPTS (7.0 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.4 ast)
Nuggets projections:
Nikola Jokic, C: 57.2 FPTS (27.3 pts, 12.1 reb, 7.8 ast)
Jamal Murray, PG: 38.8 FPTS (21.2 pts, 4.2 reb, 5.9 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Michael Porter Jr., SF: 33.6 FPTS (18.3 pts, 7.7 reb, 1.6 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG/SF: 20.7 FPTS (9.2 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.9 ast)
Reggie Jackson, PG: 19.3 FPTS (9.3 pts, 1.7 reb, 3.6 ast)
Christian Braun, SG: 16.1 FPTS (9.0 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.6 ast)
Peyton Watson, SF: 14.3 FPTS (7.4 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.3 ast)
BPI Projection: Warriors in the 7th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Heat: Dru Smith, (OUT – Knee); Caleb Martin, (GTD – Ankle); Duncan Robinson, (GTD – Ankle); Jimmy Butler, (GTD – Calf); Josh Richardson, (GTD – Back); Kyle Lowry, (GTD – Undisclosed)
Warriors: Draymond Green, (OUT – Suspension); Gary Payton II, (OUT – Calf)
Heat projections:
Bam Adebayo, C: 42.2 FPTS (23.3 pts, 10.2 reb, 4.2 ast)
Tyler Herro, PG/SG: 40.1 FPTS (23.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 4.2 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Caleb Martin, SG/SF: 24.8 FPTS (12.6 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.2 ast)
Jaime Jaquez Jr., SF: 22.7 FPTS (13.3 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.3 ast)
Duncan Robinson, SG/SF: 20.5 FPTS (10.5 pts, 2.2 reb, 2.5 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Kyle Lowry, PG: 19.6 FPTS (7.1 pts, 3.1 reb, 3.2 ast)
Josh Richardson, SG/SF: 19.3 FPTS (9.3 pts, 2.5 reb, 2.4 ast)
Warriors projections:
Stephen Curry, PG: 43.7 FPTS (26.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 4.8 ast, 4.5 3PM)
Klay Thompson, SG/SF: 28.2 FPTS (17.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.2 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Chris Paul, PG: 22.0 FPTS (7.2 pts, 3.2 reb, 5.2 ast)
Jonathan Kuminga, PF: 21.3 FPTS (12.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.4 ast)
Andrew Wiggins, SF/PF: 18.9 FPTS (12.2 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.2 ast)
Brandin Podziemski, SG: 18.3 FPTS (10.5 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.2 ast)
Dario Saric, PF: 17.2 FPTS (8.0 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.5 ast)
BPI Projection: Blazers in the 3rd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Spurs: Charles Bassey, (OUT – Knee); Devonte’ Graham, (OUT – Illness)
Blazers: Robert Williams III, (OUT – Knee); Deandre Ayton, (OUT – Knee); Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT – Thigh)
Spurs projections:
Keldon Johnson, SF: 28.2 FPTS (12.7 pts, 5.3 reb, 3.3 ast)
Devin Vassell, SG/SF: 27.2 FPTS (15.1 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.8 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Jeremy Sochan, PG/PF: 24.0 FPTS (11.8 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.5 ast)
Zach Collins, PF/C: 22.5 FPTS (11.0 pts, 5.7 reb, 2.8 ast)
Victor Wembanyama, PF/C: 20.0 FPTS (11.4 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.2 ast)
Malaki Branham, SG: 19.1 FPTS (9.9 pts, 2.5 reb, 2.3 ast)
Tre Jones, PG: 16.9 FPTS (6.9 pts, 1.9 reb, 3.9 ast)
Blazers projections:
Anfernee Simons, PG/SG: 44.4 FPTS (26.8 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.6 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Jerami Grant, PF: 36.3 FPTS (24.2 pts, 3.6 reb, 3.1 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Malcolm Brogdon, PG/SG: 35.6 FPTS (18.0 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.2 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Toumani Camara, PF: 19.5 FPTS (10.6 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.2 ast)
Scoot Henderson, PG: 18.3 FPTS (10.0 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.2 ast)
Jabari Walker, PF: 16.8 FPTS (8.1 pts, 5.3 reb, 0.8 ast)
Matisse Thybulle, SG/SF: 13.7 FPTS (4.5 pts, 1.9 reb, 1.0 ast)
BPI Projection: Lakers in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Hornets: LaMelo Ball, (OUT – Ankle); Brandon Miller, (GTD – Ankle); Mark Williams, (GTD – Back); Frank Ntilikina, (OUT – Lower Leg); Gordon Hayward, (OUT – Calf)
Lakers: Gabe Vincent, (OUT – Knee); Anthony Davis, (GTD – Ankle); Cam Reddish, (GTD – Groin); Jarred Vanderbilt, (GTD – Heel); LeBron James, (GTD – Knee)
Hornets projections:
Terry Rozier, PG/SG: 43.6 FPTS (21.9 pts, 3.7 reb, 6.1 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Miles Bridges, SF/PF: 36.7 FPTS (19.5 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Nick Richards, C: 22.3 FPTS (10.1 pts, 8.2 reb, 1.1 ast)
Brandon Miller, SG/SF: 21.2 FPTS (11.7 pts, 4.8 reb, 1.2 ast)
P.J. Washington, PF: 19.9 FPTS (8.7 pts, 3.6 reb, 2.1 ast)
Nick Smith Jr., PG: 14.6 FPTS (7.2 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.0 ast)
Cody Martin, SF: 13.8 FPTS (6.6 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.1 ast)
Lakers projections:
LeBron James, SF/PF: 48.4 FPTS (25.7 pts, 7.0 reb, 6.9 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Anthony Davis, PF/C: 45.1 FPTS (24.6 pts, 12.5 reb, 3.3 ast, 2.0 blk)
Austin Reaves, SG/SF: 35.9 FPTS (17.6 pts, 4.8 reb, 5.4 ast)
D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG: 28.2 FPTS (11.6 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.2 ast)
Rui Hachimura, SF/PF: 21.7 FPTS (12.9 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.2 ast)
Cam Reddish, SG/SF: 18.9 FPTS (8.8 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.4 ast)
Taurean Prince, SF: 16.3 FPTS (7.6 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.4 ast)