Fantasy basketball tips and projections for Saturday
New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.
From the Denver Nuggets ending the Boston Celtics’ perfect home record, to the first look at Pascal Siakam with the Indiana Pacers, Friday’s NBA slate offered a variety of meaningful outcomes. Through a fantasy lens, we can appreciate and act on strong performances from two players who just recently returned from respective injuries.
The Orlando Magic have had Wendell Carter Jr. in the lineup for just 16 games thus far this season, but his productive play since returning to the rotation earlier this week signals growing statistical value. The gifted, if oft-injured, big man was the team’s best option in the paint and on the glass in Friday night’s loss to the surging Philadelphia 76ers. Handling Joel Embiid is no easy task, but Carter didn’t back down en route to a season-high 25 points and his second double-double of the season. Available in free agency in nearly 60% of ESPN men’s basketball leagues, the arrow is pointing up for Carter.
Rookie Brandon Miller shined in his return to the court for the Charlotte Hornets in a win over the San Antonio Spurs. His 24 points mark the second-most in his young career. While Carter and the Magic have the night off, Miller is active Saturday evening against the visiting 76ers and emerges as a worthy addition that is still available in 55% of ESPN leagues.
Saturday’s eight-game schedule tips in the early afternoon with the Detroit Pistons positioned as sizable underdogs against the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. Cade Cunningham remains out because of a knee injury, vaulting two Pistons guards to the streaming section below.
While it’s not considered a marquee matchup, the contest between the San Antonio Spurs and Washington Wizards claims both a healthy total of 241.5 points at ESPN BET and a bevy of widely available talent to plug into fantasy lineups. These teams rank in the top three in pace, so added possessions should help usher in some big numbers in the box score. We expound on Jeremy Sochan and Deni Avdija, two playmaking forwards, as members of Saturday’s Stream Team.
The Cavaliers won’t have Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, or Caris LeVert in the rotation for Saturday night’s road game against the Atlanta Hawks. Not only are Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen poised for impact performances worthy of DFS attention and prop bet consideration, but Max Strus and Sam Merrill merit a look for plug-and-play duties in deeper fantasy formats.
This segment nominates three key streaming options ahead of that day’s action. A streamer, by our standards, is a player available in at least half of ESPN men’s basketball leagues.
Jaden Ivey, PG/SG, Detroit Pistons (51.0%)
Fresh from a career scoring performance earlier this week, Ivey has gone from struggling to starring in a matter of weeks. The Milwaukee Bucks remain strong defensively in the frontcourt and both teams offer little resistance at the point of attack. Those in deeper leagues can turn to scoring guard Alec Burks (4.9%) who has seen a surge in usage with Cunningham out.
Isaiah Hartenstein, PF/C, New York Knicks (50.7%)
A regular endorsement in this space, Hartenstein continues to deserve more attention given his somewhat absurd blend of rebounding volume and defensive acuity. The Raptors, meanwhile, are smaller and less imposing on the glass after trading away Siakam.
Vince Williams Jr., Memphis Grizzlies (19.3% rostered in ESPN leagues)
Williams has been the most-added player in ESPN leagues over the past week and has earned such popularity by slashing for 17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.7 dimes over that span. The Grizzlies face a Chicago Bulls team that doesn’t possess much defensive talent on the perimeter.
Marvin Bagley III, PF/C, Washington Wizards (11.1%)
Bagley was traded from the Pistons to the Wizards last Sunday and so far, the early returns have been good for Washington. Bagley played nearly 40 minutes and registered a 20-point double-double in his debut with the team a few days ago. The added tempo and favorable matchup against the Spurs only adds to the appeal. Deni Avdija (38.1%) is also in a good spot given just how porous the San Antonio defense has proven.
Jeremy Sochan, PG/PF, San Antonio Spurs (19.6%)
You won’t find many players eligible at both point guard and power forward, but Sochan qualifies thanks to a unique role as both a glue guy and a playmaker. With Tre Jones back as the lead point guard, Sochan is actually proving more productive as a slasher off the ball, attacking the glass on both sides of the court. Fantasy managers would be wise to pursue this ideal matchup of two fast-paced, poor defensive teams.
Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons
3 p.m. Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
BPI Projection: Bucks in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Shoulder)
Pistons: Malcolm Cazalon, (GTD – Ankle); Cade Cunningham, (OUT – Knee)
Bucks projections:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/C: 49.3 FPTS (30.3 pts, 9.3 reb, 5.5 ast)
Damian Lillard, PG: 47.5 FPTS (27.7 pts, 4.4 reb, 6.7 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Khris Middleton, SF: 28.9 FPTS (15.1 pts, 4.2 reb, 4.6 ast)
Brook Lopez, C: 25.7 FPTS (13.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.6 ast, 2.0 blk)
Malik Beasley, SG: 21.6 FPTS (10.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.2 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Bobby Portis, PF/C: 17.8 FPTS (8.8 pts, 5.7 reb, 0.8 ast)
Pat Connaughton, SG/SF: 13.5 FPTS (5.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.3 ast)
Pistons projections:
Bojan Bogdanovic, SF/PF: 32.5 FPTS (19.1 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.9 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Jalen Duren, C: 30.2 FPTS (13.2 pts, 10.9 reb, 2.3 ast)
Jaden Ivey, PG/SG: 27.0 FPTS (14.7 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.8 ast)
Isaiah Stewart, PF/C: 25.3 FPTS (11.3 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.2 ast)
Killian Hayes, PG: 19.7 FPTS (7.7 pts, 3.0 reb, 4.1 ast)
Monte Morris, PG: 19.5 FPTS (7.0 pts, 2.7 reb, 3.7 ast)
Ausar Thompson, SG/SF: 16.0 FPTS (7.6 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.3 ast)
Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
BPI Projection: 76ers in the 5th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
76ers: Jaden Springer, (GTD – Ankle); Kenneth Lofton Jr., (GTD – Shoulder); De’Anthony Melton, (OUT – Back); Robert Covington, (OUT – Knee)
Hornets: Bryce McGowens, (GTD – Hip); Gordon Hayward, (OUT – Calf)
76ers projections:
Joel Embiid, C: 55.3 FPTS (31.4 pts, 11.3 reb, 6.2 ast, 1.5 blk)
Tyrese Maxey, PG/SG: 51.3 FPTS (27.9 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.4 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Tobias Harris, SF/PF: 36.4 FPTS (18.7 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.2 ast)
Kelly Oubre Jr., SF/PF: 24.1 FPTS (12.8 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.1 ast)
Nicolas Batum, SG/SF: 17.7 FPTS (5.1 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.9 ast)
Patrick Beverley, PG: 17.4 FPTS (6.8 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.5 ast)
Paul Reed, PF: 16.9 FPTS (7.0 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.2 ast)
Hornets projections:
Terry Rozier, PG/SG: 43.0 FPTS (24.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 5.9 ast, 2.9 3PM)
LaMelo Ball, PG/SG: 41.5 FPTS (22.9 pts, 4.9 reb, 6.5 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Miles Bridges, SF/PF: 37.0 FPTS (21.3 pts, 6.7 reb, 3.4 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Brandon Miller, SG/SF: 23.3 FPTS (13.7 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.2 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Mark Williams, C: 22.9 FPTS (11.1 pts, 7.7 reb, 1.2 ast)
P.J. Washington, PF: 20.3 FPTS (9.0 pts, 3.8 reb, 2.1 ast)
Nick Richards, C: 17.5 FPTS (8.0 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.1 ast)
San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
BPI Projection: Wizards in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Spurs: Sidy Cissoko, (GTD – Ankle); Zach Collins, (OUT – Rest)
Wizards: None reported
Spurs projections:
Victor Wembanyama, PF/C: 33.5 FPTS (18.6 pts, 8.6 reb, 3.0 ast, 2.2 blk)
Devin Vassell, SG/SF: 30.4 FPTS (16.7 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.0 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Keldon Johnson, SF: 26.9 FPTS (14.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Jeremy Sochan, PG/PF: 25.3 FPTS (13.1 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.3 ast)
Tre Jones, PG: 24.6 FPTS (10.8 pts, 3.5 reb, 4.5 ast)
Malaki Branham, SG: 16.0 FPTS (8.4 pts, 1.8 reb, 2.1 ast)
Dominick Barlow, SF/PF: 13.9 FPTS (6.6 pts, 4.9 reb, 0.9 ast)
Wizards projections:
Kyle Kuzma, SF/PF: 40.4 FPTS (23.6 pts, 6.8 reb, 4.1 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Deni Avdija, SF/PF: 28.2 FPTS (12.5 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.7 ast)
Jordan Poole, PG/SG: 27.9 FPTS (16.0 pts, 2.7 reb, 3.5 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Tyus Jones, PG: 26.4 FPTS (11.2 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.9 ast)
Daniel Gafford, PF/C: 22.6 FPTS (10.1 pts, 7.4 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.9 blk)
Bilal Coulibaly, SG: 17.8 FPTS (8.1 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.8 ast)
Marvin Bagley III, PF/C: 15.4 FPTS (8.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 0.6 ast)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. State Farm Arena, Atlanta
BPI Projection: Cavaliers in the 6th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Cavaliers: Caris LeVert, (GTD – Wrist); Ty Jerome, (OUT – Ankle)
Hawks: Vit Krejci, (GTD – Shoulder); Wesley Matthews, (GTD – Calf); Mouhamed Gueye, (OUT – Back)
Cavaliers projections:
Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG: 50.0 FPTS (27.9 pts, 4.8 reb, 6.0 ast, 3.3 3PM)
Jarrett Allen, C: 32.9 FPTS (14.6 pts, 9.7 reb, 3.2 ast)
Darius Garland, PG: 31.3 FPTS (18.0 pts, 2.3 reb, 5.9 ast)
Evan Mobley, PF/C: 30.3 FPTS (14.8 pts, 8.8 reb, 2.8 ast, 1.3 blk)
Max Strus, SG/SF: 26.8 FPTS (12.1 pts, 4.1 reb, 3.3 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Caris LeVert, SG/SF: 22.2 FPTS (11.4 pts, 2.5 reb, 3.3 ast)
Isaac Okoro, SG/SF: 15.4 FPTS (8.1 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.3 ast)
Hawks projections:
Trae Young, PG: 44.3 FPTS (26.4 pts, 2.9 reb, 8.2 ast, 3.1 3PM)
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG: 36.8 FPTS (21.0 pts, 4.6 reb, 4.3 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Jalen Johnson, SF/PF: 33.8 FPTS (15.5 pts, 7.7 reb, 3.1 ast)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG/SF: 27.6 FPTS (15.0 pts, 2.6 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.9 3PM)
Saddiq Bey, SF/PF: 25.1 FPTS (12.3 pts, 5.8 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Clint Capela, C: 22.7 FPTS (10.7 pts, 8.5 reb, 1.0 ast, 1.5 blk)
De’Andre Hunter, SF/PF: 17.8 FPTS (11.0 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.1 ast)
Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
BPI Projection: Knicks in the 7th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Raptors: Otto Porter Jr., (GTD – Knee)
Knicks: Josh Hart, (GTD – Knee)
Raptors projections:
Scottie Barnes, SF/PF: 38.7 FPTS (20.0 pts, 7.1 reb, 5.5 ast, 1.9 3PM, 1.5 blk)
RJ Barrett, SG/SF: 33.7 FPTS (21.3 pts, 5.0 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Immanuel Quickley, PG/SG: 29.0 FPTS (15.9 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.7 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Dennis Schroder, PG: 24.7 FPTS (10.8 pts, 2.4 reb, 5.1 ast)
Jakob Poeltl, C: 20.2 FPTS (8.9 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.4 blk)
Gary Trent Jr., PG/SG: 19.8 FPTS (10.9 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.4 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Bruce Brown, SG/SF: 17.8 FPTS (7.4 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.2 ast)
Knicks projections:
Julius Randle, PF: 45.3 FPTS (26.1 pts, 8.6 reb, 5.3 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Jalen Brunson, PG/SG: 44.0 FPTS (26.5 pts, 3.5 reb, 6.2 ast, 2.9 3PM)
Isaiah Hartenstein, PF/C: 31.3 FPTS (12.8 pts, 10.0 reb, 2.3 ast)
OG Anunoby, SF: 29.7 FPTS (15.4 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.3 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Donte DiVincenzo, SG: 20.1 FPTS (8.9 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.3 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Mitchell Robinson, C: 19.1 FPTS (7.4 pts, 8.3 reb, 0.8 ast)
Josh Hart, SG/SF: 18.6 FPTS (7.4 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.0 ast)
Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. United Center, Chicago
BPI Projection: Bulls in the 8th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Derrick Rose, (OUT – Thigh); Jake LaRavia, (OUT – Ankle); Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Finger); Desmond Bane, (OUT – Ankle)
Bulls: Ayo Dosunmu, (GTD – Shoulder); Patrick Williams, (GTD – Ankle); Zach LaVine, (OUT – Ankle)
Grizzlies projections:
Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C: 33.3 FPTS (21.9 pts, 5.7 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.9 3PM, 1.5 blk)
Vince Williams Jr., SF: 26.7 FPTS (11.0 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.5 ast)
Luke Kennard, SG: 22.4 FPTS (11.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 2.1 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Steven Adams, C: 21.9 FPTS (8.8 pts, 9.3 reb, 2.1 ast)
Xavier Tillman, PF/C: 18.9 FPTS (8.5 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.4 ast)
Santi Aldama, PF/C: 15.3 FPTS (7.6 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.0 ast)
Bulls projections:
DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF: 42.7 FPTS (24.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 5.4 ast)
Nikola Vucevic, C: 39.5 FPTS (18.9 pts, 11.1 reb, 3.5 ast)
Coby White, PG/SG: 37.8 FPTS (20.5 pts, 4.7 reb, 5.4 ast, 2.9 3PM)
Alex Caruso, PG/SG: 23.8 FPTS (9.9 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.9 ast)
Andre Drummond, C: 18.4 FPTS (8.6 pts, 7.7 reb, 0.5 ast)
Patrick Williams, SF/PF: 16.9 FPTS (8.7 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.8 ast)
Torrey Craig, SF/PF: 16.0 FPTS (6.7 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.1 ast)
Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. Toyota Center, Houston
BPI Projection: Jazz in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Jazz: None reported
Rockets: Reggie Bullock Jr., (GTD – Back); Tari Eason, (OUT – Lower Leg); Victor Oladipo, (OUT – Knee)
Jazz projections:
Lauri Markkanen, SF/PF: 43.0 FPTS (25.0 pts, 9.0 reb, 2.3 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Collin Sexton, PG/SG: 29.1 FPTS (18.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 3.7 ast)
Jordan Clarkson, SG: 26.2 FPTS (15.2 pts, 3.3 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.8 3PM)
John Collins, PF: 23.5 FPTS (13.1 pts, 6.7 reb, 1.0 ast)
Keyonte George, PG/SG: 21.9 FPTS (11.7 pts, 2.6 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Simone Fontecchio, SF: 17.0 FPTS (8.6 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.4 ast)
Walker Kessler, C: 16.8 FPTS (7.9 pts, 5.9 reb, 1.0 ast, 1.6 blk)
Rockets projections:
Alperen Sengun, C: 42.1 FPTS (23.0 pts, 8.7 reb, 4.5 ast)
Fred VanVleet, PG: 35.7 FPTS (14.8 pts, 3.5 reb, 7.1 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Jabari Smith Jr., PF/C: 28.6 FPTS (14.4 pts, 8.6 reb, 1.2 ast)
Jalen Green, SG: 28.4 FPTS (16.6 pts, 4.1 reb, 3.2 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Dillon Brooks, SG/SF: 20.0 FPTS (11.0 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.4 ast)
Cam Whitmore, SF: 18.6 FPTS (10.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.0 ast)
Amen Thompson, SG: 16.4 FPTS (7.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.7 ast)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
BPI Projection: Timberwolves in the 3rd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Luguentz Dort, (GTD – Illness)
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles)
Thunder projections:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG: 51.4 FPTS (29.3 pts, 6.1 reb, 5.8 ast)
Jalen Williams, SG/SF/PF: 37.1 FPTS (19.1 pts, 4.6 reb, 4.7 ast)
Chet Holmgren, PF/C: 36.6 FPTS (18.9 pts, 7.6 reb, 3.3 ast, 2.4 blk)
Josh Giddey, PG/SG/PF: 24.7 FPTS (10.7 pts, 5.6 reb, 4.1 ast)
Luguentz Dort, SG/SF: 20.2 FPTS (9.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.4 ast)
Isaiah Joe, SG: 14.8 FPTS (7.3 pts, 2.3 reb, 0.9 ast)
Cason Wallace, PG/SG: 12.9 FPTS (5.8 pts, 1.9 reb, 1.1 ast)
Timberwolves projections:
Anthony Edwards, SG/SF: 43.3 FPTS (27.7 pts, 5.3 reb, 5.5 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C: 39.9 FPTS (22.1 pts, 8.3 reb, 3.2 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Rudy Gobert, C: 32.6 FPTS (15.0 pts, 13.5 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.5 blk)
Mike Conley, PG: 25.8 FPTS (9.6 pts, 2.6 reb, 5.5 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Naz Reid, PF/C: 20.5 FPTS (11.0 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.1 ast)
Jaden McDaniels, SF: 20.0 FPTS (10.8 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.3 ast)
Kyle Anderson, SF/PF: 17.2 FPTS (7.4 pts, 2.9 reb, 3.3 ast)