Fantasy basketball tips and projections for Monday
New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.
After Sunday’s epic 11-game NBA slate, Monday offers a quieter quartet of contests. The good news for fantasy managers, however, is that several rotations in action today are influenced by a series of suspensions and injuries, and thus feature widely-available players worthy of our attention.
The Miami Heat, for instance, won’t have superstar steward Jimmy Butler in the lineup due to a suspension, as the team visits the Sacramento Kings. Both Terry Rozier and Tyler Herro are listed as questionable due to their respective injuries. This all signals increased value for the likes of Duncan Robinson (rostered in 11.5% of ESPN), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (18.7%), and Caleb Martin (3.9%), who I’d prioritize in listed order. For the Kings, Sixth Man of the Year favorite Malik Monk (62.1%) keeps shining as a scoring microwave.
The best offensive climate of the day might just be where the All-Star game just went down, with the Indiana Pacers hosting the Toronto Raptors in a game that claims the highest total of the slate at 244.5 points. With Indiana possibly missing two-way wing Aaron Nesmith to injury, second-year bucket Bennedict Mathurin (16.2%) could continue to deliver.
The New York Knicks face a friendly matchup with frequent trade partners, the Detroit Pistons. The Knicks continue to lean heavily on Precious Achiuwa (27.9%), who remains one of the top endorsements in our streaming section. Detroit, meanwhile, has a rising rookie in Ausar Thompson (45.4%).
The most actionable streaming roster, however, is found in Tennessee as the Memphis Grizzlies feature two young forwards in Vince Williams Jr. (36.7%) and GG Jackson (11.1%). They host the Brooklyn Nets, a team that has somehow lost even more luster as a fantasy resource now that Kevin Ollie spreads minutes throughout a deep rotation.
This segment nominates three key streaming options ahead of that day’s action. A streamer, by our standards, is a player available in at least half of ESPN men’s basketball leagues.
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Vince Williams Jr., SG/SF, Grizzlies (rostered in 36.7% of ESPN leagues): Memphis is still weeks away from getting some key starting veterans back in the rotation, which means Williams gets more runway to develop and deliver impressive numbers as both a creator and scorer.
Precious Achiuwa, PF/C, Knicks (27.9%): Making room for Achiuwa and Josh Hart (43.6%) could prove rewarding ahead of tonight’s tilt with Detroit. Achiuwa rarely leaves the floor as a busy rebounder and rim protector, while Hart’s “glue guy” game often leads to flirtations with triple-double outcomes.
Ausar Thompson, SF/PF, Pistons (45.4%): Motown hesitates at times to empower their young talent, but Thompson’s toughness and work on the glass should play a large role in this matchup with a tough and disciplined Knicks roster. The good news with Thompson is that he can produce an elite fantasy outcome even when his shot doesn’t show up, as his defensive rates are already proving to be special.
Duncan Robinson, SG/SF, Heat (11.5%): A shooting specialist who has added more life to his game off the bounce this season than ever before, Robinson’s scoring bandwidth has been impressive in recent games. Martin and Jaquez have better two-way profiles, but Robinson’s floor for shooting and scoring appear to be the most reliable.
Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics.* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.
Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
BPI Projection: Pacers in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Raptors: None reported
Pacers: Aaron Nesmith, (GTD – Ankle)
Raptors projections:
Scottie Barnes, SF/PF: 40.5 FPTS (20.5 pts, 7.4 reb, 6.6 ast, 1.4 blk)
Immanuel Quickley, PG/SG: 32.0 FPTS (17.4 pts, 4.0 reb, 4.0 ast, 2.4 3PM)
RJ Barrett, SG/SF: 29.6 FPTS (17.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.2 ast)
Jakob Poeltl, C: 26.5 FPTS (11.4 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.7 blk)
Gary Trent Jr., PG/SG: 20.9 FPTS (11.9 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.1 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Kelly Olynyk, PF/C: 16.9 FPTS (6.3 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.6 ast)
Bruce Brown, SG/SF: 16.6 FPTS (7.3 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.8 ast)
Pacers projections:
Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG: 43.0 FPTS (19.1 pts, 3.6 reb, 8.5 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Pascal Siakam, PF/C: 40.7 FPTS (22.4 pts, 6.5 reb, 4.4 ast)
Myles Turner, C: 26.8 FPTS (15.0 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.5 blk)
Andrew Nembhard, PG/SG: 25.3 FPTS (11.4 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.3 ast)
Bennedict Mathurin, SG/SF: 22.5 FPTS (13.9 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.8 ast)
Jalen Smith, PF/C: 19.0 FPTS (9.1 pts, 5.5 reb, 0.9 ast)
T.J. McConnell, PG: 16.9 FPTS (7.2 pts, 2.4 reb, 3.2 ast)
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
BPI Projection: Knicks in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Pistons: Isaiah Stewart, (OUT – Suspension); Marcus Sasser, (OUT – Knee)
Knicks: Duane Washington Jr., (OUT – Thumb); Julius Randle, (OUT – Shoulder); OG Anunoby, (OUT – Elbow); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT – Ankle)
Pistons projections:
Cade Cunningham, PG/SG: 42.1 FPTS (22.9 pts, 3.9 reb, 7.5 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Jalen Duren, C: 30.1 FPTS (13.1 pts, 9.7 reb, 2.5 ast)
Jaden Ivey, PG/SG: 27.9 FPTS (16.2 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.6 ast)
Ausar Thompson, SG/SF: 24.8 FPTS (11.8 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.9 ast)
Simone Fontecchio, SF: 21.3 FPTS (10.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Evan Fournier, SG/SF: 13.5 FPTS (7.0 pts, 1.6 reb, 1.0 ast)
James Wiseman, C: 13.2 FPTS (6.1 pts, 3.8 reb, 0.8 ast)
Knicks projections:
Jalen Brunson, PG/SG: 44.2 FPTS (26.1 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.4 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Donte DiVincenzo, SG: 33.4 FPTS (18.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.0 ast, 3.5 3PM)
Precious Achiuwa, PF/C: 33.0 FPTS (17.5 pts, 9.2 reb, 1.5 ast)
Josh Hart, SG/SF: 32.2 FPTS (13.2 pts, 7.6 reb, 3.7 ast)
Bojan Bogdanovic, SF/PF: 23.2 FPTS (14.3 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.7 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Isaiah Hartenstein, PF/C: 19.5 FPTS (8.1 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.5 ast)
Alec Burks, SG: 15.7 FPTS (9.5 pts, 1.6 reb, 1.2 ast)
Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. FedExForum, Memphis
BPI Projection: Nets in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Nets: Ben Simmons, (GTD – Leg); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Grizzlies: John Konchar, (OUT – Thumb); Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Scotty Pippen Jr., (OUT – Back); Desmond Bane, (OUT – Ankle); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Finger); Ja Morant, (OUT – Shoulder)
Nets projections:
Mikal Bridges, SG/SF: 35.7 FPTS (21.3 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.7 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Cam Thomas, SG: 29.7 FPTS (19.4 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Nic Claxton, PF/C: 26.4 FPTS (11.3 pts, 9.7 reb, 1.8 ast, 2.1 blk)
Ben Simmons, PG/PF: 22.5 FPTS (7.2 pts, 6.7 reb, 4.6 ast)
Dennis Schroder, PG: 21.4 FPTS (9.5 pts, 2.3 reb, 4.2 ast)
Cameron Johnson, SF/PF: 19.7 FPTS (9.2 pts, 3.6 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Dennis Smith Jr., PG: 17.6 FPTS (5.6 pts, 3.0 reb, 3.2 ast)
Grizzlies projections:
Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C: 35.7 FPTS (25.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 2.8 ast, 2.1 3PM, 1.6 blk)
Vince Williams Jr., SG/SF: 34.8 FPTS (15.1 pts, 7.0 reb, 4.7 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Santi Aldama, PF/C: 26.2 FPTS (12.7 pts, 5.9 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Luke Kennard, SG: 22.0 FPTS (10.8 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.7 ast, 2.6 3PM)
GG Jackson, PF: 21.1 FPTS (13.1 pts, 4.2 reb, 0.9 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Ziaire Williams, SG: 20.6 FPTS (11.6 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.6 ast)
Derrick Rose, PG: 15.4 FPTS (7.2 pts, 1.8 reb, 2.8 ast)
Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
BPI Projection: Kings in the 3rd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Heat: Orlando Robinson, (GTD – Back); Terry Rozier, (GTD – Knee); Tyler Herro, (GTD – Knee); Jimmy Butler, (OUT – Suspension); Nikola Jovic, (OUT – Suspension); Josh Richardson, (OUT – Shoulder); Thomas Bryant, (OUT – Suspension); Dru Smith, (OUT – Knee)
Kings: Alex Len, (GTD – Illness); Sasha Vezenkov, (OUT – Ankle)
Heat projections:
Bam Adebayo, C: 41.3 FPTS (20.6 pts, 11.3 reb, 4.7 ast)
Tyler Herro, PG/SG: 40.6 FPTS (23.8 pts, 5.6 reb, 5.0 ast, 3.4 3PM)
Jaime Jaquez Jr., SF: 30.0 FPTS (16.5 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.7 ast)
Caleb Martin, SG/SF: 26.7 FPTS (13.5 pts, 5.3 reb, 2.1 ast)
Duncan Robinson, SG/SF: 25.3 FPTS (12.5 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.8 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Kevin Love, PF/C: 19.2 FPTS (6.8 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.9 ast)
Haywood Highsmith, SF: 16.5 FPTS (6.9 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.2 ast)
Kings projections:
De’Aaron Fox, PG: 51.5 FPTS (27.9 pts, 4.2 reb, 6.1 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Domantas Sabonis, PF/C: 44.3 FPTS (19.7 pts, 11.9 reb, 7.3 ast)
Keegan Murray, SF/PF: 25.6 FPTS (13.4 pts, 4.8 reb, 1.5 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Malik Monk, SG/SF: 25.3 FPTS (13.8 pts, 2.9 reb, 3.8 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Kevin Huerter, SG/SF: 23.4 FPTS (11.6 pts, 3.8 reb, 2.2 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Harrison Barnes, SF/PF: 18.1 FPTS (9.9 pts, 2.6 reb, 0.9 ast)
Trey Lyles, PF: 15.9 FPTS (7.8 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.0 ast)