Fantasy basketball tips and projections for Monday
New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.
While Kevin Durant delivered a vintage 40-point performance, downing the Indiana Pacers Sunday night, the game also included Grayson Allen sinking three more 3-pointers. Allen is one ofthe 26 players who have made at least 100 3-pointers this season. However, no one has been more efficient on such shots than Grayson Allen of the Phoenix Suns.
While he’s not going to wow you as a contributor across several categories, Allen’s emergence as a shooting specialist is worthy of more attention from fantasy managers. A free agent in just over 60% of ESPN leagues, Allen just joined Quentin Richardson and Raja Bell as the only Suns to hit as many as 34 3-pointers over an eight game stretch. If you need some blend of scoring and shooting, Allen faces the short-handed Chicago Bulls at home tonight.
Sticking with Sunday’s slate, Houston Rockets rookie Amen Thompson (13.6% rostered) produced his second career double-double in a rare spot start. The team was missing several starters in a loss to the Boston Celtics, but Thompson’s talent will likely surface again later this season as he gains more trust from the coaching staff.
Monday’s eight-game schedule opens with the San Antonio Spurs making their annual visit to face the Philadelphia 76ers in a compelling meeting of Victor Wembenyana and Joel Embiid. The actionable fantasy focuses on the Spurs’ Jeremy Sochan, as he’s thrived recently since Tre Jones assumed lead point guard duties. Taking Sochan off the ball has actually been a boon to his production, as his game is best suited to work off the ball as a cutter and crasher while also freeing him up as a chaos creator on defense. Producing top-50 value the past week, Sochan remains a free agent in roughly 75% of leagues.
We find the Orlando Magic hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers this evening in a game that positions Wendell Carter Jr. (49.0%) against the team that drafted and traded him. With at least 17 points in each of the past four games since returning from injury while averaging the most points per possession in the league the past two weeks, Carter could feast on Nikola Vucevic and the Bulls’ weaker defensive frontcourt.
The latest tip of the night features the Atlanta Hawks visiting the Sacramento Kings in a contest with a total of 237.5 points. Both teams are in the top 11 in pace on the season and in the bottom 10 in defensive rating during the past 10 games. Not only is this a worthy target for DFS stacks and prop plays, it’s also savvy to roster Malik Monk (58.3%) and Kevin Huerter (54.6%) ahead of this game.
Today’s streaming section is rife with players that could sustain statistical value past just today, especially as it’s wise to hit the waiver wire aggressively at the start of a new week.
Jaden Ivey, PG/SG (52.5%): Cade Cunningham has been upgraded to doubtful for tonight’s rubber match with the Buck, which suggests he’s unlikely to be active, but is also trending towards a return after weeks of being listed as out on official injury reports. This all points to Ivey still commanding a rewarding role as the team’s top offensive creator, a position that has led to big numbers in recent games. After all, the second-year guard just posted 18 points and a dozen combined rebounds and assists a few days ago against this Milwaukee team.
Vince Williams Jr., Grizzlies (19.7% rostered in ESPN leagues): Thanks to assuming a major two-way for the depleted Grizzlies rotation recently, Williams is ranked 11th on the Player Rater among small forwards over the past 15 days, just between Anthony Edwards and Jayson Tatum during this sample. The Raptors do have some quality defensive talent on the perimeter, but gobs of minutes and usage often serve to overcome matchup metrics. For those in deeper formats, Luke Kennard (6.0%) is providing a blend of shooting and passing production worthy of more attention.
Alec Burks, SG, Pistons (7.7%): With at least 33 points in two of his past three outings, Burks has lived up to his reputation as a bucket. As discussed in Ivery’s endorsement, the likely absence of Cunningham combined with Burks’ recent scoring binge against this very Bucks defense speaks to Burks’ value as an ideal streamer this evening.
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF, Mavericks (25.4%): A high-volume source of shooting and scoring as the resident tertiary scorer for Dallas, Hardaway will be tasked with opening the floor against a strong Boston defense tonight.
Patrick Williams, SF/PF, Bulls (10.0%): Zach LaVine won’t play this evening due to injury, which has often led to increased offensive opportunities for Williams. Already set with stellar defensive rates, a strong two-way outcome is in the cards against the Magic.
Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics.* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons
7:00 p.m. Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
BPI Projection: Bucks in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Shoulder)
Pistons: Malcolm Cazalon, (OUT – Ankle); Cade Cunningham, (OUT – Knee)
Bucks projections:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/C: 53.1 FPTS (30.2 pts, 10.7 reb, 5.8 ast)
Damian Lillard, PG: 44.4 FPTS (24.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.2 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Khris Middleton, SF: 31.1 FPTS (15.5 pts, 4.4 reb, 4.6 ast)
Brook Lopez, C: 25.8 FPTS (12.7 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.6 ast, 2.5 blk)
Bobby Portis, PF/C: 21.9 FPTS (11.2 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.0 ast)
Malik Beasley, SG: 20.5 FPTS (9.4 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.2 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Jae Crowder, SF/PF: 15.3 FPTS (7.1 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.1 ast)
Pistons projections:
Jalen Duren, C: 31.2 FPTS (13.7 pts, 12.2 reb, 2.4 ast)
Bojan Bogdanovic, SF/PF: 30.7 FPTS (18.0 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.9 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Jaden Ivey, PG/SG: 30.1 FPTS (16.9 pts, 5.1 reb, 4.1 ast)
Killian Hayes, PG: 19.6 FPTS (7.5 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.4 ast)
Isaiah Stewart, PF/C: 19.2 FPTS (8.1 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.0 ast)
Monte Morris, PG: 19.0 FPTS (7.3 pts, 2.8 reb, 3.6 ast)
Ausar Thompson, SG/SF: 15.8 FPTS (7.4 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.3 ast)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic
7:00 p.m. Amway Center, Orlando
BPI Projection: Cavaliers in the 8th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Cavaliers: Caris LeVert, (GTD – Wrist); Ty Jerome, (OUT – Ankle)
Magic: Cole Anthony, (GTD – Ankle); Gary Harris, (GTD – Calf)
Cavaliers projections:
Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG: 48.0 FPTS (27.1 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.8 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Darius Garland, PG: 31.2 FPTS (18.2 pts, 2.3 reb, 5.7 ast)
Jarrett Allen, C: 30.9 FPTS (14.0 pts, 9.4 reb, 3.0 ast)
Evan Mobley, PF/C: 29.3 FPTS (14.6 pts, 8.4 reb, 2.9 ast)
Caris LeVert, SG/SF: 20.5 FPTS (10.6 pts, 2.2 reb, 3.1 ast)
Max Strus, SG/SF: 19.6 FPTS (8.1 pts, 3.0 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Isaac Okoro, SG/SF: 15.6 FPTS (8.3 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.5 ast)
Magic projections:
Franz Wagner, SG/SF/PF: 42.5 FPTS (23.8 pts, 5.9 reb, 4.4 ast)
Paolo Banchero, SF/PF: 40.9 FPTS (25.1 pts, 6.4 reb, 5.3 ast)
Jalen Suggs, PG/SG: 21.5 FPTS (11.7 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Wendell Carter Jr., C: 19.6 FPTS (9.6 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.6 ast)
Markelle Fultz, PG/SG: 19.5 FPTS (9.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 3.3 ast)
Cole Anthony, PG: 18.7 FPTS (9.3 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.5 ast)
Moritz Wagner, PF/C: 17.4 FPTS (8.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.1 ast)
San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers
7:00 p.m. Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
BPI Projection: 76ers in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Spurs: Zach Collins, (GTD – Ankle); Sidy Cissoko, (OUT – Ankle)
76ers: Jaden Springer, (GTD – Ankle); Patrick Beverley, (GTD – Illness); De’Anthony Melton, (OUT – Back); Robert Covington, (OUT – Knee); Kenneth Lofton Jr., (OUT – Shoulder)
Spurs projections:
Victor Wembanyama, PF/C: 33.5 FPTS (18.9 pts, 8.7 reb, 2.7 ast, 2.1 blk)
Devin Vassell, SG/SF: 31.3 FPTS (17.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 3.0 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Jeremy Sochan, PG/PF: 27.3 FPTS (13.3 pts, 6.4 reb, 4.0 ast)
Tre Jones, PG: 26.3 FPTS (11.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 4.9 ast)
Keldon Johnson, SF: 24.4 FPTS (13.0 pts, 4.7 reb, 2.6 ast)
Zach Collins, PF/C: 20.5 FPTS (11.0 pts, 5.3 reb, 2.6 ast)
Dominick Barlow, SF/PF: 14.7 FPTS (6.9 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.0 ast)
76ers projections:
Joel Embiid, C: 56.3 FPTS (31.5 pts, 11.5 reb, 6.1 ast, 1.7 blk)
Tyrese Maxey, PG/SG: 51.6 FPTS (27.6 pts, 3.9 reb, 6.2 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Tobias Harris, SF/PF: 37.4 FPTS (18.6 pts, 5.9 reb, 3.1 ast)
Kelly Oubre Jr., SF/PF: 28.2 FPTS (15.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Paul Reed, PF: 17.8 FPTS (6.9 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.4 ast)
Nicolas Batum, SG/SF: 16.7 FPTS (4.4 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.9 ast)
Patrick Beverley, PG: 16.5 FPTS (6.2 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.3 ast)
Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
BPI Projection: Raptors in the 7th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Xavier Tillman, (GTD – Knee); Derrick Rose, (OUT – Thigh); Jake LaRavia, (OUT – Ankle); Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Finger); Desmond Bane, (OUT – Ankle)
Raptors: None reported
Grizzlies projections:
Ja Morant, PG: 42.1 FPTS (23.8 pts, 4.7 reb, 6.7 ast)
Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C: 30.3 FPTS (19.2 pts, 4.9 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.8 3PM, 1.3 blk)
Vince Williams Jr., SF: 25.9 FPTS (10.3 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.6 ast)
Steven Adams, C: 21.6 FPTS (9.1 pts, 8.5 reb, 2.1 ast)
Luke Kennard, SG: 21.4 FPTS (10.4 pts, 3.5 reb, 2.0 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Santi Aldama, PF/C: 18.3 FPTS (9.3 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.1 ast)
Xavier Tillman, PF/C: 16.3 FPTS (7.2 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.3 ast)
Raptors projections:
Scottie Barnes, SF/PF: 41.2 FPTS (20.2 pts, 7.4 reb, 5.6 ast, 1.9 3PM, 1.4 blk)
RJ Barrett, SG/SF: 34.5 FPTS (21.0 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.2 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Immanuel Quickley, PG/SG: 33.2 FPTS (18.8 pts, 4.0 reb, 3.5 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Dennis Schroder, PG: 25.5 FPTS (10.7 pts, 2.3 reb, 5.1 ast)
Jakob Poeltl, C: 21.5 FPTS (8.9 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.4 blk)
Gary Trent Jr., PG/SG: 21.3 FPTS (12.1 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.3 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Bruce Brown, SG/SF: 18.0 FPTS (7.3 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.1 ast)
Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves
8:00 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
BPI Projection: Timberwolves in the 6th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Hornets: Gordon Hayward, (OUT – Calf)
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles)
Hornets projections:
Terry Rozier, PG/SG: 40.5 FPTS (23.1 pts, 3.6 reb, 5.5 ast, 2.9 3PM)
LaMelo Ball, PG/SG: 35.8 FPTS (19.5 pts, 4.0 reb, 5.4 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Miles Bridges, SF/PF: 35.2 FPTS (20.4 pts, 6.6 reb, 3.2 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Brandon Miller, SG/SF: 23.3 FPTS (13.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Mark Williams, C: 21.9 FPTS (10.5 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.1 ast)
Cody Martin, SF: 17.4 FPTS (8.4 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.8 ast)
Nick Richards, C: 17.3 FPTS (7.7 pts, 7.0 reb, 1.1 ast)
Timberwolves projections:
Anthony Edwards, SG/SF: 43.2 FPTS (27.6 pts, 5.1 reb, 5.4 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C: 36.5 FPTS (20.9 pts, 7.5 reb, 3.2 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Rudy Gobert, C: 31.8 FPTS (15.4 pts, 12.8 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.9 blk)
Mike Conley, PG: 24.7 FPTS (9.0 pts, 2.6 reb, 5.3 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Jaden McDaniels, SF: 19.8 FPTS (11.6 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.4 ast)
Naz Reid, PF/C: 19.4 FPTS (10.9 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.0 ast)
Kyle Anderson, SF/PF: 15.7 FPTS (6.4 pts, 2.7 reb, 3.3 ast)
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas
BPI Projection: Celtics in the 3rd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Celtics: Jrue Holiday, (GTD – Elbow)
Mavericks: Dante Exum, (GTD – Heel); Seth Curry, (GTD – Ankle)
Celtics projections:
Jayson Tatum, SF/PF: 46.6 FPTS (26.3 pts, 8.2 reb, 4.4 ast, 3.1 3PM)
Jaylen Brown, SG/SF: 37.4 FPTS (22.7 pts, 5.2 reb, 3.5 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Derrick White, PG/SG: 28.2 FPTS (12.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.4 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C: 27.8 FPTS (15.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.3 ast, 2.0 blk)
Jrue Holiday, PG/SG: 23.6 FPTS (9.4 pts, 5.3 reb, 4.0 ast)
Al Horford, PF/C: 15.0 FPTS (3.8 pts, 5.5 reb, 1.8 ast)
Luke Kornet, C: 13.3 FPTS (5.0 pts, 5.0 reb, 0.8 ast)
Mavericks projections:
Luka Doncic, PG: 55.9 FPTS (33.9 pts, 7.5 reb, 8.2 ast, 3.9 3PM)
Kyrie Irving, PG/SG: 46.6 FPTS (27.3 pts, 5.5 reb, 5.1 ast, 2.9 3PM)
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF: 29.0 FPTS (17.7 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.4 ast, 3.3 3PM)
Derrick Jones Jr., SF: 20.6 FPTS (11.0 pts, 4.5 reb, 0.9 ast)
Josh Green, SG/SF: 17.2 FPTS (8.4 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.9 ast)
Jaden Hardy, SG: 16.0 FPTS (9.0 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.7 ast)
Grant Williams, PF: 15.8 FPTS (7.1 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.5 ast)
Chicago Bulls at Phoenix Suns
9:00 p.m. Footprint Center, Phoenix
BPI Projection: Suns in the 5th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Bulls: Patrick Williams, (GTD – Ankle); Zach LaVine, (OUT – Ankle)
Suns: Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Bulls projections:
DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF: 42.0 FPTS (25.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 5.3 ast)
Nikola Vucevic, C: 39.6 FPTS (19.1 pts, 10.4 reb, 3.6 ast)
Coby White, PG/SG: 35.8 FPTS (19.5 pts, 4.4 reb, 5.2 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Alex Caruso, PG/SG: 22.0 FPTS (9.2 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.9 ast)
Patrick Williams, SF/PF: 18.7 FPTS (9.8 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.9 ast)
Ayo Dosunmu, SG: 18.1 FPTS (8.9 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.2 ast)
Torrey Craig, SF/PF: 15.6 FPTS (6.4 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.1 ast)
Suns projections:
Devin Booker, PG/SG/PF: 46.3 FPTS (27.6 pts, 4.6 reb, 7.1 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Kevin Durant, SF/PF: 44.8 FPTS (28.6 pts, 5.8 reb, 6.0 ast)
Bradley Beal, PG/SG: 32.6 FPTS (20.3 pts, 4.1 reb, 3.9 ast)
Jusuf Nurkic, C: 28.3 FPTS (12.7 pts, 9.6 reb, 3.0 ast)
Grayson Allen, SG: 25.7 FPTS (12.4 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.9 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Eric Gordon, SG/SF: 17.2 FPTS (9.2 pts, 1.6 reb, 2.0 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Josh Okogie, SG/SF: 11.9 FPTS (5.9 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.2 ast)
Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings
10:00 p.m. Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
BPI Projection: Kings in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Vit Krejci, (OUT – Shoulder); Wesley Matthews, (OUT – Calf); Mouhamed Gueye, (OUT – Back)
Kings: Sasha Vezenkov, (GTD – Ankle)
Hawks projections:
Trae Young, PG: 47.8 FPTS (27.0 pts, 3.1 reb, 9.2 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG: 38.5 FPTS (20.9 pts, 4.5 reb, 4.8 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Jalen Johnson, SF/PF: 30.9 FPTS (13.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 3.2 ast)
Saddiq Bey, SF/PF: 24.4 FPTS (11.4 pts, 5.8 reb, 1.1 ast)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG/SF: 23.4 FPTS (12.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.1 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Clint Capela, C: 21.4 FPTS (10.0 pts, 8.2 reb, 0.8 ast, 1.3 blk)
De’Andre Hunter, SF/PF: 16.7 FPTS (9.7 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.1 ast)
Kings projections:
De’Aaron Fox, PG: 46.3 FPTS (28.4 pts, 4.3 reb, 5.3 ast, 3.1 3PM)
Domantas Sabonis, PF/C: 44.9 FPTS (21.5 pts, 12.1 reb, 7.5 ast)
Keegan Murray, SF/PF: 27.5 FPTS (14.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.4 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Malik Monk, SG/SF: 25.6 FPTS (13.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 4.4 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Kevin Huerter, SG/SF: 19.8 FPTS (9.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Harrison Barnes, SF/PF: 17.6 FPTS (9.9 pts, 2.4 reb, 1.0 ast)
Trey Lyles, PF: 15.7 FPTS (7.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.0 ast)