Fantasy basketball tips and projections for Friday
New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.
Thursday featured a light five-game slate and we saw some interesting developments, as Marvin Bagley II, Kevin Huerter and Bennedict Mathurin all went off.
Bagley may have been the surprise of the night with his 20 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks as the Wizards’ starting center in his debut for his new team. He played 39 minutes and hit 10 of 16 shots and added two steals and two assists in a tough loss to the Knicks. The Wizards are apparently going to use Bagley, and he’s available in about 95% of ESPN leagues. He’s worth picking up, if for no other reason than what he did on Thursday.
Huerter is rostered in 52% of ESPN leagues, but I’m not sure why the number is that high. He had scored in single digits in nine of his previous 10 games before scoring 26 on Sunday, 10 on Tuesday and a career-high 31 points with seven 3-pointers on Thursday night. Maybe he’s finally ready to turn it on for the Kings. He’s heating up just as Malik Monk is slumping. Given his last three games, Huerter looks like a “run, don’t walk” type of pickup.
Mathurin (19.3% rostered in ESPN leagues) started on Thursday and hit 11 of 21 shots and two triples for 25 points and had three rebounds, four assists, a steal and two blocks in 37 minutes. Pascal Siakam wasn’t with Indy for this one and either Mathurin, Buddy Hield or Jalen Smith is going to the bench once Siakam is ready, although Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard are also in the mix. The problem is, we don’t know who will be starting for the Pacers from night to night when they’re whole. But I love the fact that Mathurin’s 37 minutes led the team on Thursday, and you should hang onto him if you’ve got him until we see how this shakes out. He has been playing well for a few weeks now.
Friday’s slate features seven games, with the Nuggets visiting the Celtics in the game of the night on ESPN and then the Nets at Lakers in the ESPN late game.
Victor Wembanyama won’t play in the first game of a back-to-back for the Spurs, and I’m expecting point guard Tre Jones and forward Keldon Johnson to go off in his absence, which is what happened the last time Wemby sat.
Jordan Hawkins has been hot for New Orleans and fantasy managers should keep a close eye on him tonight, as the sharp-shooter appears to be back in the fold for the Pelicans. He’s just 1.6% rostered in ESPN leagues and has scored 21, 9 and 34 points in each of his past three games. A little birdy told me he is going to get more run the rest of the way, so this doesn’t feel like a fluke.
The question of the night will be whether we see Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton (leg) in action for the Pacers after he was a late scratch against the Kings on Thursday. If he’s out, T.J. McConnell” title=”T.J. McConnell posters”>T.J. McConnell should be in all fantasy lineups possible.
This segment nominates three key streaming options ahead of that day’s action. A streamer, by our standards, is a player available in at least half of ESPN men’s basketball leagues.
Wendell Carter Jr., C, Magic (38.6% rostered in ESPN leagues): WCJ (knee) returned from a five-game absence and exceeded his predicted 15-minute limit on Thursday, going for 17 points, three rebounds and a block in 19 minutes. The first key to this process is to make sure that he’ll play in the back-to-back game on Friday against Joel Embiid and the Sixers. And if he does play, the minutes limit could still be on. But given how he looked on Thursday, if WCJ gets about 20 minutes on Friday, he could be a sneaky fantasy play.
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Grayson Allen, SF, Suns (29.5% rostered): Even with the Suns’ Big Three finally healthy and playing together, Allen refuses to go away. Allen has been a top 30 value over the last two weeks and has averaged 16.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.1 blocks and 4.0 3-pointers in his eight January games, hitting 50% of his shots and nearly 94% of his free throws. He’s not going away anytime soon and torched the Kings for 29 points and nine triples on Tuesday after lighting up the Blazers for 20 points and four 3-pointers on Sunday.
T.J. McConnell” title=”T.J. McConnell posters”>T.J. McConnell, PG, Pacers (33.5%): If Haliburton is out, roll with TJM. He went off for 20 points, 10 assists, a steal and hit 9 of 14 shots in 33 minutes in a tough road win at Sacramento on Thursday. If Haliburton plays, McConnell will show up on every waiver wire imaginable on Saturday morning, but if Haliburton couldn’t play against his former team in his former home city on Thursday, it’s not hard to see the Pacers giving him another game off to make sure he’s fully healthy when he’s ready to return and play with new teammate Pascal Siakam.
Jordan Hawkins, SG, Pelicans (1.6%): As I mentioned above, I’ve heard through the grapevine that the days of Hawkins being an afterthought for the Pelicans are over after he scored 21 and 34 points in two of his last three games. Hawkins is an elite shooter and scored 31 points against the Nuggets back in early November. In fact, the rookie has shown signs of life on and off all season before going through dry spells. Whether he remains relevant going forward remains to be seen, but he has been hot enough over his past three games that he’s worth a flier tonight, just in case he’s ready to start performing at a high level on a regular basis.
Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.
San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
BPI projection: Hornets in the second highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury report:
Spurs: Zach Collins, (GTD – Ankle); Sidy Cissoko, (OUT – Ankle)
Hornets: Brandon Miller, (GTD – Back); Bryce McGowens, (GTD – Hip); Gordon Hayward, (OUT – Calf)
Spurs projections:
Victor Wembanyama, PF/C: 34.7 FPTS (18.0 pts, 9.0 reb, 2.9 ast, 2.0 blk)
Devin Vassell, SG/SF: 31.1 FPTS (16.4 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.0 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Keldon Johnson, SF: 26.9 FPTS (13.8 pts, 4.7 reb, 2.9 ast)
Jeremy Sochan, PG/PF: 26.2 FPTS (13.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.4 ast)
Tre Jones, PG: 25.2 FPTS (10.2 pts, 3.3 reb, 4.5 ast)
Malaki Branham, SG: 16.6 FPTS (8.0 pts, 1.9 reb, 2.2 ast)
Dominick Barlow, SF/PF: 14.9 FPTS (6.4 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.1 ast)
Hornets projections:
Terry Rozier, PG/SG: 44.7 FPTS (24.9 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.0 ast, 3.0 3PM)
LaMelo Ball, PG/SG: 41.5 FPTS (22.8 pts, 5.2 reb, 6.3 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Miles Bridges, SF/PF: 38.0 FPTS (20.7 pts, 7.0 reb, 3.4 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Mark Williams, C: 22.3 FPTS (10.7 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.1 ast)
Nick Richards, C: 20.6 FPTS (8.7 pts, 8.1 reb, 1.2 ast)
Brandon Miller, SG/SF: 20.6 FPTS (12.0 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.8 3PM)
P.J. Washington, PF: 16.5 FPTS (7.0 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.7 ast)
Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic
7 p.m. Amway Center, Orlando
BPI projection: 76ers in the seventh highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury report:
76ers: Jaden Springer, (GTD – Ankle); Kenneth Lofton Jr., (GTD – Shoulder); De’Anthony Melton, (OUT – Back); Robert Covington, (OUT – Knee)
Magic: Franz Wagner, (OUT – Ankle); Gary Harris, (OUT – Calf)
76ers projections:
Joel Embiid, C: 53.9 FPTS (30.6 pts, 11.3 reb, 6.4 ast, 1.6 blk)
Tyrese Maxey, PG/SG: 49.7 FPTS (27.5 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.6 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Tobias Harris, SF/PF: 37.2 FPTS (20.0 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.4 ast)
Kelly Oubre Jr., SF/PF: 24.7 FPTS (14.1 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Nicolas Batum, SG/SF: 16.9 FPTS (5.2 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.8 ast)
Paul Reed, PF: 16.4 FPTS (7.0 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.3 ast)
Patrick Beverley, PG: 16.3 FPTS (6.7 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.5 ast)
Magic projections:
Paolo Banchero, SF/PF: 42.6 FPTS (25.1 pts, 6.5 reb, 5.5 ast)
Jalen Suggs, PG/SG: 21.8 FPTS (11.0 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Cole Anthony, PG: 21.4 FPTS (10.0 pts, 3.6 reb, 2.6 ast)
Moritz Wagner, PF/C: 21.3 FPTS (10.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.4 ast)
Goga Bitadze, C: 20.2 FPTS (8.1 pts, 7.2 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.3 blk)
Chuma Okeke, PF: 17.8 FPTS (8.1 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.1 ast)
Markelle Fultz, PG/SG: 17.2 FPTS (6.9 pts, 2.3 reb, 3.2 ast)
Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. TD Garden, Boston
BPI projection: Celtics in the fourth highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury report:
Nuggets: Aaron Gordon, (GTD – Shoulder); Julian Strawther, (OUT – Knee); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee)
Celtics: None reported
Nuggets projections:
Nikola Jokic, C: 51.5 FPTS (25.2 pts, 10.5 reb, 8.1 ast)
Jamal Murray, PG: 38.5 FPTS (21.6 pts, 3.6 reb, 5.8 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Aaron Gordon, PF: 28.6 FPTS (16.1 pts, 6.0 reb, 2.7 ast)
Michael Porter Jr., SF: 28.1 FPTS (14.7 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.3 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG/SF: 21.0 FPTS (10.3 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.8 ast)
Reggie Jackson, PG: 20.4 FPTS (10.0 pts, 2.0 reb, 3.8 ast)
Christian Braun, SG: 13.5 FPTS (7.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.2 ast)
Celtics projections:
Jayson Tatum, SF/PF: 49.1 FPTS (28.2 pts, 7.7 reb, 4.8 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Jaylen Brown, SG/SF: 39.7 FPTS (24.3 pts, 4.8 reb, 3.4 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Jrue Holiday, PG/SG: 30.7 FPTS (13.9 pts, 5.9 reb, 4.5 ast)
Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C: 24.9 FPTS (13.6 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.0 ast)
Derrick White, PG/SG: 24.4 FPTS (10.9 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.0 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Al Horford, PF/C: 21.1 FPTS (7.3 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.2 ast)
Sam Hauser, SF: 15.0 FPTS (6.5 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.0 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
8 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami
BPI projection: Heat in the fifth highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury report:
Hawks: Vit Krejci, (OUT – Shoulder); Wesley Matthews, (OUT – Calf); Mouhamed Gueye, (OUT – Back)
Heat: Jaime Jaquez Jr., (GTD – Groin); Dru Smith, (OUT – Knee)
Hawks projections:
Trae Young, PG: 48.9 FPTS (28.4 pts, 3.0 reb, 9.0 ast, 3.3 3PM)
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG: 37.7 FPTS (21.4 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.2 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Jalen Johnson, SF/PF: 35.6 FPTS (16.1 pts, 8.4 reb, 3.0 ast)
Saddiq Bey, SF/PF: 26.4 FPTS (12.6 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG/SF: 25.0 FPTS (13.5 pts, 2.4 reb, 2.0 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Clint Capela, C: 24.4 FPTS (11.2 pts, 9.3 reb, 0.9 ast, 1.4 blk)
De’Andre Hunter, SF/PF: 19.4 FPTS (11.9 pts, 3.2 reb, 0.9 ast)
Heat projections:
Bam Adebayo, C: 41.4 FPTS (22.8 pts, 10.5 reb, 4.6 ast)
Tyler Herro, PG/SG: 39.2 FPTS (22.8 pts, 5.4 reb, 4.5 ast, 3.1 3PM)
Jimmy Butler, SF/PF: 36.8 FPTS (22.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 4.2 ast)
Jaime Jaquez Jr., SF: 26.0 FPTS (14.0 pts, 3.6 reb, 3.0 ast)
Caleb Martin, SG/SF: 19.0 FPTS (9.8 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.8 ast)
Kyle Lowry, PG: 18.6 FPTS (6.8 pts, 2.7 reb, 3.2 ast)
Duncan Robinson, SG/SF: 18.1 FPTS (8.4 pts, 1.8 reb, 2.6 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
BPI projection: Pelicans in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury report:
Suns: Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Pelicans: Dereon Seabron, (GTD – Undisclosed); Matt Ryan, (OUT – Elbow)
Suns projections:
Devin Booker, PG/SG/PF: 47.5 FPTS (27.4 pts, 5.0 reb, 7.1 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Kevin Durant, SF/PF: 46.3 FPTS (28.4 pts, 5.9 reb, 6.1 ast)
Bradley Beal, PG/SG: 33.2 FPTS (19.5 pts, 4.2 reb, 4.2 ast)
Jusuf Nurkic, C: 29.2 FPTS (12.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast)
Grayson Allen, SG: 24.1 FPTS (11.2 pts, 4.2 reb, 2.6 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Eric Gordon, SG/SF: 16.3 FPTS (8.1 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Nassir Little, SF/PF: 12.0 FPTS (5.5 pts, 2.6 reb, 0.7 ast)
Pelicans projections:
Brandon Ingram, SF/PF: 38.7 FPTS (22.3 pts, 4.3 reb, 5.0 ast)
CJ McCollum, PG/SG: 34.7 FPTS (17.8 pts, 3.7 reb, 4.9 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Zion Williamson, PF: 34.6 FPTS (21.1 pts, 5.1 reb, 4.5 ast)
Jonas Valanciunas, C: 26.4 FPTS (12.0 pts, 8.1 reb, 2.3 ast)
Herbert Jones, SF/PF: 18.8 FPTS (9.3 pts, 3.0 reb, 2.3 ast)
Dyson Daniels, PG/SG: 16.9 FPTS (6.8 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.6 ast)
Trey Murphy III, SG/SF: 15.7 FPTS (6.8 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.4 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. Moda Center, Portland
BPI projection: Pacers in the third highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury report:
Pacers: Aaron Nesmith, (GTD – Lower Leg); Andrew Nembhard, (GTD – Back); Isaiah Jackson, (GTD – Head); Pascal Siakam, (GTD – Not Injury Related); Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD – Hamstring)
Blazers: Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT – Abdomen)
Pacers projections:
Myles Turner, C: 33.4 FPTS (18.7 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.9 blk)
Bennedict Mathurin, SG/SF: 30.2 FPTS (18.9 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.9 ast)
Buddy Hield, SG/SF: 28.2 FPTS (13.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.8 ast, 2.9 3PM)
Jalen Smith, PF/C: 28.1 FPTS (14.5 pts, 7.8 reb, 1.6 ast)
T.J. McConnell” title=”T.J. McConnell posters”>T.J. McConnell, PG: 25.6 FPTS (11.6 pts, 3.7 reb, 4.5 ast)
Obi Toppin, PF: 23.8 FPTS (12.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.5 ast)
Aaron Nesmith, SF: 23.3 FPTS (12.6 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Blazers projections:
Anfernee Simons, PG/SG: 38.0 FPTS (21.9 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.9 ast, 3.1 3PM)
Jerami Grant, PF: 30.2 FPTS (19.1 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Deandre Ayton, C: 25.0 FPTS (12.6 pts, 8.7 reb, 1.3 ast)
Scoot Henderson, PG: 23.6 FPTS (13.6 pts, 2.8 reb, 4.4 ast)
Duop Reath, C: 23.6 FPTS (10.8 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.0 ast)
Jabari Walker, PF: 21.5 FPTS (9.4 pts, 7.3 reb, 1.1 ast)
Malcolm Brogdon, PG/SG: 18.1 FPTS (7.2 pts, 2.1 reb, 3.4 ast)
Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
BPI projection: Lakers in the sixth highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury report:
Nets: Mikal Bridges, (GTD – Lower Leg); Ben Simmons, (OUT – Back); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Lakers: LeBron James, (GTD – Ankle); Cam Reddish, (OUT – Knee); Gabe Vincent, (OUT – Knee)
Nets projections:
Mikal Bridges, SG/SF: 34.3 FPTS (21.0 pts, 4.7 reb, 3.7 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Nic Claxton, PF/C: 31.6 FPTS (15.4 pts, 10.9 reb, 1.8 ast, 2.2 blk)
Spencer Dinwiddie, PG/SG: 21.8 FPTS (7.8 pts, 2.7 reb, 4.6 ast)
Cam Thomas, SG: 21.7 FPTS (15.5 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.8 ast)
Cameron Johnson, SF/PF: 21.0 FPTS (10.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.8 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Dennis Smith Jr., PG: 20.1 FPTS (8.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.7 ast)
Dorian Finney-Smith, SF/PF: 17.0 FPTS (7.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Lakers projections:
Anthony Davis, PF/C: 47.1 FPTS (26.6 pts, 10.6 reb, 4.4 ast, 1.6 blk)
LeBron James, SF/PF: 45.3 FPTS (24.2 pts, 6.4 reb, 6.9 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Austin Reaves, SG/SF: 30.7 FPTS (15.4 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.1 ast)
D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG: 30.1 FPTS (15.7 pts, 2.7 reb, 5.1 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Taurean Prince, SF: 18.9 FPTS (9.4 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.5 ast)
Rui Hachimura, SF/PF: 14.7 FPTS (8.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.1 ast)
Christian Wood, PF/C: 14.0 FPTS (6.6 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.0 ast)