Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Wednesday
ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 14th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Underdog Money: On today’s slate, the total in the Cavs-Mavs game stands out, as it is easily the lowest on the board. What do we do in such spots? Play the ‘dog. In games this season with a total of 220 points or less, underdogs are not only 48-36-5 ATS (57.1%), they’ve returned a 10.9 unit profit if you bet them all moneyline. Cleveland is no small part of those numbers: 7-2-1 ATS in those low total games with under tickets cashing in six of those seven covers.
Road Back-to-Backs: Both the Kings and the Warriors find themselves in the unenviable spots of playing on the road tonight after being in action last night, but they are in totally different positions when it comes to expectations. The Warriors are favored in Indiana, making this just the 16th time a road team on a back-to-back has been favored. In the first 15, the home team went 8-5-2 ATS and in those eight covers, six times did the over hit. The Kings, on the other hand, are big (five-plus points) ‘dogs. Tired teams in such spots boast a modest 21-20 ATS record, but don’t get greedy: you’re down 9.8 units (6-35) this season if you bet each one of those teams to win moneyline.
Buying Bogdan Part II: We attempted to endorse Bogdan Bogdanovic back on Monday as a savvy fantasy streamer and DFS bargain, but he understandably rested on the second leg of a back-to-back. With the savvy combo guard set to play big minutes against the Magic in Orlando tonight, it’s notable that’s he’s averaged 29.5 points over his past two games and should flirt with 30 minutes and a 30% usage rate for a depleted Atlanta offense missing Dejounte Murray and John Collins to respective injuries. Bogdan, meanwhile, is a free agent in nearly 60% of ESPN leagues and is just $5,000 on DraftKings despite being in such a good spot.
There’s still time to play Fantasy Basketball this season! With leagues tipping off every Monday, it’s the perfect time to get started. Create or join a league today.
Play for free! | “Not Too Late” draft guide
Get Gary: The Toronto Raptors won’t have standout two-way talent OG Anunoby in the lineup tonight due to a hip ailment for tonight’s matchup with the visiting Kings. With Sacramento bleeding points on the perimeter to Philly last night and on a tough second leg of a road back-to-back, loading up on any value in the Toronto rotation could prove rewarding, such as with Gary Trent Jr., who has recently found his shot and has averaged 20.5 points with strong shooting and steal rates during his last four outings. Trent is an ideal DFS play at just $5,700 on DraftKings and is poised to challenge his scoring and 3-point props in a plus matchup.
Miami Martin: The Heat have had a fairly forgettable start to the season, but one key positive has been the emergence of Caleb Martin as a trusted part of the rotation. Martin is thriving of late in slashing for 14.3 points, 4.9 boards, 2.4 3-pointers, and 1.3 combined blocks and steals over his last 10 games. With Jimmy Butler sidelined for tonight’s game against the Thunder, Martin, a free agent in 88% of leagues, could honestly approach 40 minutes of exposure if this game is at all competitive.
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls
7:30 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago, Illinois
Line: Bulls (-4)
Money line: Bulls (-175), Knicks (+148)
Total: 226.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 226.8 points
BPI Win%: Bulls (57.5%)
Questionable: Alex Caruso (back), Ayo Dosunmu (abdomen), Jalen Brunson (foot)
Ruled Out: Obi Toppin (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: DeMar DeRozan over 26.5 points. DeRozan has averaged 28.4 PPG over his past 12 games, going over 26.5 points in nine of them. — Andre Snellings
Best bet: Julius Randle over 34.5 points + rebounds. Randle should be well rested after being ejected from Sunday for two technical fouls. He’s tallied at least 34.5 points and rebounds in three consecutive games. The Bulls rank in the top-10 in most points and rebounds allowed per game to power forwards. Randle is set to have a big game. — Eric Moody
Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
Line: Hornets (-3)
Money line: Hornets (-145), Pistons (+122)
Total: 227 points
BPI Projected Total: 230 points
BPI Win%: Hornets (61.3%)
Ruled Out: Dennis Smith Jr., LaMelo Ball (ankle), Gordon Hayward (shoulder), Isaiah Livers (shoulder)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Killian Hayes (available in 76.7% of leagues). Hayes has put up some strong performances while filling in for the injured Cade Cunningham and now with Cunningham out for the season, Hayes should be rostered in most fantasy leagues. He has averaged 12.4 PPG, 7.7 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.6 SPG and 1.4 3PG in 28.7 MPG over his past nine starts. — Snellings
Best bet: Bojan Bogdanovic over 19.5 points. Bogdanovic has averaged 23.5 PPG over his past six outings, including three games of 30 or more points and only one game under 18 points. He faces a Hornets squad Wednesday night that has the sixth-worst defensive rating and allows the seventh-most points in the NBA. — Snellings
Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Warriors (-1)
Money line: Warriors (-120), Pacers (+100)
Total: 238.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 240.7 points
BPI Win%: Pacers (50.4%)
Questionable: Aaron Nesmith (shoulder)
Ruled Out: Chris Duarte (ankle), Andrew Wiggins (groin)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic
7 p.m. ET, Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
Line: Hawks (-2.5)
Money line: Hawks (-140). Magic (+118)
Total: 225 points
BPI Projected Total: 230 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (53.9%)
Questionable: Trae Young (back)
Ruled Out: John Collins (ankle), Dejounte Murray (ankle), Jalen Suggs (ankle), Gary Harris (hamstring), Jonathan Isaac (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Moritz Wagner (available in 95.3% of leagues). Wagner had an off-game last time out against the Raptors, but has still averaged a solid 12.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.8 3PG, 0.7 SPG and 0.5 BPG in 29.7 MPG in six starts for the injured Wendell Carter Jr. — Snellings
Fantasy streamer: Aaron Holiday (available in 99.7% of leagues). Holiday got the start on Monday with Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovic (available in 58.6% of leagues) all out. Bogdanovic is scheduled to return on Wednesday, and averaged a whopping 29.5 PPG, 6.5 3PG, 4.5 RPG and 4.0 APG in his two games before the injury. Holiday could be in line for another start if Young has to sit again. He produced 15 points, 6 assists, 4 steals and 3 rebounds in 29 minutes in his start on Monday. — Snellings
Fantasy streamer: Cole Anthony (rostered in 48.1% of ESPN leagues). Anthony has been playing very well for the Magic since returning from an oblique injury. He has scored 24 or more fantasy points in five of his past seven games. Anthony has averaged 27.1 minutes per game off the bench this season. — Moody
Best bet: Paolo Banchero over 20.5 points. Banchero has scored 20 or more points in seven of his Past eight games and is facing a Hawks squad that ranks bottom-five in the NBA in points allowed to opposing small forwards and power forwards. — Snellings
Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Line: Raptors (-5)
Money line: Raptors (-205), Kings (+170)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.7 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (62.5%)
Questionable: Alex Len
Ruled Out: Juancho Hernangomez (ankle), Precious Achiuwa (ankle), Otto Porter Jr. (hip)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Raptors -5. The Kings have struggled on the road of late, losing six of their past seven road games with a scoring margin of -12.7 PPG. They have faced stiff competition in presumed playoffs teams and play another potential playoff squad on Wednesday. Sacramento is also on the second half of a back-to-back, so I’ll give the points and take the Raptors. — Snellings
Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Line: Heat (-2.5)
Money line: Heat (-135), Thunder (+115)
Total: 224 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.8 points
BPI Win%: Thunder (52.2%)
Questionable: Dewayne Dedmon, Max Strus
Ruled Out: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (ankle), Kenrich Williams (knee), Gabe Vincent (knee), Jimmy Butler (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Luguentz Dort (rostered in 27.3% of ESPN leagues). Dort has a very favorable matchup against a Heat team that has been dominated by small forwards this season. Dort has averaged 24.0 fantasy points per game despite struggling over the past three games. — Moody
Best bet: Bam Adebayo over 10.5 rebounds. The Thunder have given up the most rebounds per game to opposing centers this season, allowing for plenty of opportunities for Adebayo to hit this over. — Moody
Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Line: Blazers (-7.5)
Money line: Blazers (-305), Spurs (+240)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 239.1 points
BPI Win%: Blazers (66.1%)
Questionable: Josh Hart, Drew Eubanks, Josh Richardson, Zach Collins, Romeo Langford
Ruled Out: Blake Wesley, Keita Bates-Diop, Jakob Poeltl
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Damian Lillard over 27.5 points. Lillard dropped 11 3-pointers on the Timberwolves in only three quarters on Monday. He’s playing like the Hall-of-Fame CPU on 2K23 right now and I’m not exaggerating. Most of Lillard’s 3-pointers didn’t even hit the rim. He has averaged 38.0 PPG on 52.3 FG% and 51.1 3P% over his past three games and is a good bet to go over his points prop in every game until he cools off. — Snellings
Fantasy streamer: Drew Eubanks (rostered in 0.3% of ESPN leagues). Eubanks is a solid streamer for fantasy managers in deeper formats. Despite playing only 17.5 minutes per game, Eubanks has been very effective, scoring 18 or more fantasy points in each of the past four games. Eubanks could have a nice game against a Spurs team ranked 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions and allowing opponents an effective field goal percentage of 57.8%. — Eric Moody
Fantasy streamer: Charles Bassey (rostered in 1.7% of ESPN leagues). Bassey is on the streaming radar with Zach Collins considered doubtful for Wednesday night’s game. He’s in a great position to surpass 16.1 minutes. Bassey has averaged 15.0 points and 15.3 rebounds per 40 minutes. — Moody
Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks
9 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Line: Mavericks (-2)
Money line: Mavericks (-130), Cavaliers (+110)
Total: 216 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.9 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (56.6%)
Questionable: Maxi Kleber (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Darius Garland over 27.5 points + assists. Although Garland has been struggling lately, he should be able to bounce back against a Mavericks defense that has struggled to contain point guards this season. Garland has averaged 18.8 points and 7.0 assists in four career games against the Mavericks. The Cavaliers’ backcourt of Garland and Donovan Mitchell should put a lot of pressure on Dallas’ defense. — Moody
Washington Wizards at Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. ET, Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
Line: Nuggets (-9.5)
Money line: Nuggets (-455), Wizards (+345)
Total: 226.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 229.1 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (79.4%)
Questionable: Monte Morris, Kristaps Porzingis
Ruled Out: Bradley Beal, Rui Hachimura
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Nikola Jokic over 19.5 rebounds + assists. The Wizards rank 22nd in points allowed per 100 possessions and have had a hard time containing opposing centers recently. Jokic has averaged 10.1 RPG and 9.1 APG this season and should deliver another all-around outstanding performance Wednesday night. — Moody
Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Clippers
10 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Clippers (-6.5)
Money line: Clippers (-250), Timberwolves (+205)
Total: 222.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 226.4 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (70.6%)
Questionable: D’Angelo Russell,
Ruled Out: Jordan McLaughlin, Taurean Prince, Karl-Anthony Towns, Norman Powell
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
1. Portland Trail Blazers (121.9 points)
2. Indiana Pacers (120.4 points)
3. Golden State Warriors (120.3 points)
1. Washington Wizards (110.1 points)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (110.6 points)
3. Miami Heat (110.6 points)
1. Denver Nuggets (79.4%)
2. LA Clippers (70.6%)
3. Portland Trail Blazers (66.1%)