Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Tuesday
ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 13th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Picking Against Points: Not one, not two, but three games on this light slate opened with a total over 230 points and a spread less than four (Warriors/Bucks, Pelicans/Jazz and Celtics/Lakers). Such spots are not overly common, but they can be profitable if you follow the breadcrumbs. This season, underdogs are 20-14 ATS (58.8%) in such spots, making all three ‘dogs very live tonight, but that’s not even the strongest trend for these games. In those 34 games, 24 have gone under the total, good for a 70.6% cash rate!
Reading The Rivalry: The Celtics and Lakers square off in the late window tonight with plenty of star power capable of seizing the stage. Don’t bank on it. Boston is on a back-to-back (lost by 20 last night to the Clippers) and are favored to win this game … games with a favorite that is on a back-to-back this season have seen under tickets cash 58.8% of the time (7-2 thus far in December).
Rising Rocket: The Rockets are getting strong play from their young stars lately. This includes rookie Jabari Smith Jr., who has pulled down at least 10 boards in two of his last three games and enters tonight’s tilt with the Suns in a good spot to hit rebounding props while also providing value as a streaming option. Available in free agency in nearly 60% of leagues, Smith is in a good spot against a Suns team he just produced 17 points against a few weeks ago.
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Pelican Pickups: With Brandon Ingram still sidelined by a toe injury, versatile big man Larry Nance Jr. (86% available in ESPN leagues) has been stellar statistically, with eight steals and nine dimes while averaging 16 PPG and nearly 30 minutes over his past two appearances. Trey Murphy III (71%) has slumped a bit from the field lately, but it’s difficult to deny his potential for two-way success. Murphy, after all, ranks 33rd in the NBA in steal percentage and could revive his shooting touch against a Utah team that ranks 27th in defensive rating the last 10 games.
Stream Team: Tuesday’s are often lighter slates in the league, allowing for what are often massive Wednesday schedules. If you are in need of some solid streaming options amid tonight’s smaller slate, take a look at Phoenix, as Devin Booker is sidelined by a hamstring injury. This means we could see big minutes from wing Damion Lee, who is rostered in fewer than two percent of leagues and just played 34 minutes. If you need some help at center, Kelly Olynyk (48%) continues to thrive as a player capable of producing atypically high rates of 3-pointers, assists, and steals.
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks
7:30 p.m ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Line: Bucks (-4)
Money line: Bucks (-170), Warriors (+143)
Total: 233 points
BPI Projected Total: 241.1 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (61.6%)
Probable: Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins
Questionable: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Kevon Looney (rostered in 12.9% of ESPN leagues) has greatly improved his rebounding work lately and it’s been helpful to fantasy managers. Looney has double-digit boards in three of five December games, after doing so only three times all season. He scored a season-best 37 fantasy points against the Celtics over the weekend. Expect him to sail past his over/under of 7.5 rebounds, too. — Eric Karabell
Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds. Antetokounmpo tallied 18 rebounds in his most recent game, as Brook Lopez has been lacking in the rebound department of late and Giannis has stepped up — Karabell.
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers
10 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Celtics (-3.5)
Money line: Celtics (-165), Lakers (+140)
Total: 234.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.4 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (71.2%)
Probable: LeBron James, Anthony Davis
Ruled Out: Al Horford, Wenyen Gabriel, Juan Toscano-Anderson
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers
7 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line: 76ers (-5.5)
Money line: 76ers (-225), Kings (+185)
Total: 229 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.5 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (75.4%)
Probable: Danuel House Jr.
Questionable: De’Aaron Fox
Ruled Out: Tyrese Maxey, Alex Len
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: James Harden over 9.5 assists. Philly got its point guard back last week and Harden contributed 35 assists over three games, acting more as a facilitator than scorer. That figures to be the case against the Kings as well, as Joel Embiid is handling much of the offensive workload. Harden should sail into double-digit assists most nights. — Karabell
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Best bet: James Harden over 21.5 points. Harden picked up right where he left off prior to his injury. In two of his last three games, he has scored 21 or more points. The Kings rank 17th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Sacramento also allows a high number of midrange shots. So far this season, Harden has a very high field goal percentage on his midrange shots. — Eric Moody
Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Line: Suns (-6)
Money line: Suns (-225), Rockets (+185)
Total: 224 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.2 points
BPI Win%: Suns (70.7%)
Ruled Out: Duane Washington Jr., Devin Booker
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Cameron Payne (rostered in 17.2% of ESPN leagues) should see additional usage against the Rockets with Devin Booker ruled out. He averages 20.2 points, 3.9 rebounds and 8.7 assists per 40 minutes. Pick Payne up if you need a streamer. — Moody
Best bet: Chris Paul over 23.5 points + assists. Every time Devin Booker is out, Paul has performed well. This season, Paul has only averaged 9.9 points and 8.9 assists per game, but he’s well-positioned to surpass those numbers against the Rockets. Houston ranks 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Line: Pelicans (-1.5)
Money line: Pelicans (-125), Jazz (+105)
Total: 234 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.4 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (57.2%)
Ruled Out: Brandon Ingram, Herbert Jones, Collin Sexton
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
1. Milwaukee Bucks (121.7 points)
2. Boston Celtics (121.3 points)
3. Phoenix Suns (120.7 points)
1. Sacramento Kings (111.5 points)
2. Houston Rockets (114.5 points)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (115.1 points)
1. Philadelphia 76ers (75.4%)
2. Boston Celtics (71.2%)
3. Phoenix Suns (70.7%)