Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Sunday
Big Home ‘Dogs: Last night featured no big home underdogs (spread of over five points) but today is loaded with them. Back them! Teams in such a spot this season are 27-16-3, a near 63% cash rate that will always work. But wait, there’s more. This season, if you bet teams in this specific spot on the moneyline, you’d have 5.7 more units in your account that if you simply bet them to cover. Those are some strong trends, now it’s on you to piece together the optimal card!
Sunday Streamer: Pat Connaughton (99% available) offers more to the Bucks than he does fantasy teams, but as a streamer in this spot (at HOU, a bottom-5 defense and a top-10 pace team), he makes a lot of sense in category leagues. His minutes have ticked up in every game this month (he led the bench in minutes on Friday night and got run in the first quarter), he’s made multiple triples three straight (and five of his past six games) and is a viable rebounder (7.9 per 36 minutes in December). He’s committed just one turnover in his 174 minutes this season, just one more tick in the win column for those who play in a league with that category.
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Good Looks: The Raptors boast an above average defense, thanks in large part to their versatility and to an elite individual defender in O.G. Anunoby. The Magic, however, were far from impressed when these two teams battled on Friday … their top two threats (Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner) combined for 57 points on 20-of-26 shooting. That left little on the offensive bone for Moritz Wagner (11 points in 31 minutes), a player who is 6-of-18 across two games and 53 minutes against the Raptors. Time to buy. We know he can score (in his past three games not played against the Raptors: 18.3 PPG on 60% shooting) and the defensive attention is certainly going to be elsewhere. He’s an interesting buy in the prop markets and an underrated DFS option.
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans
3:30 p.m. ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: Pelicans (-3)
Money line: Pelicans (-165), Suns (+140)
Total: 226.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.5 points
BPI Win%: Suns (50.8%)
Questionable: Devin Booker
Ruled Out: Herbert Jones, Brandon Ingram
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons
6 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Lakers (-5.5)
Money line: Lakers (-215), Pistons (+178)
Total: 233.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.3 points
BPI Win%: Lakers (56.7%)
Questionable: Anthony Davis, LeBron James
Ruled Out: Isaiah Livers, Cade Cunningham
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Anthony Davis over 39.5 total points + rebounds. Davis has scored at least 31 points with at least 10 rebounds in the last three games that he played more than eight minutes and in his last 11 games is averaging 34 PPG and 15 RPG. On Friday he sat the majority of the first three quarters in foul trouble against Joel Embiid, then had a monster fourth quarter and still ended up with 31 and 12. Barring him having to leave the game early (which is, unfortunately, always in play), Davis is a good bet to continue his dominant stretch against the Pistons. — Snellings
Best bet: Russell Westbrook over 6.5 assists. An interesting pattern has emerged over Westbrook’s last five games. When Anthony Davis has played more than eight minutes, Westbrook has double-digit assists. In the two games Davis missed or left after eight minutes, Westbrook had four and three assists, but scored 16 points in both. While playing with AD, Westbrook is in pure distributor mode, and should go over his moderate assists line. — Snellings
Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks
6 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
Line: Knicks (-2.5)
Money line: Knicks (-140), Kings (+118)
Total: 232 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.7 points
BPI Win%: Knicks (56%)
Questionable: Keegan Murray, De’Aaron Fox
Ruled Out: Terence Davis
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic
6 p.m. ET, Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
Line: Raptors (-7)
Money line: Raptors (-305), Magic (+240)
Total: 220 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.5 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (72.6%)
Questionable: O.G. Anunoby
Ruled Out: Chuma Okeke, Gary Harris, Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr., Juancho Hernangomez
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Moritz Wagner (available in 93.9% of leagues) has started five straight games with Wendell Carter out, averaging a solid 14.2 PPG (50.9 FG%, 87.5 FT%), 8.4 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.6 BPG and 0.6 3PG in 31.4 MPG. — Snellings
Best bet: Magic +6.5. In addition to the “Big Home Dogs” trend pointed out above, the Magic have played the Raptors tough this season. They’ve split their two matchups thus far, with the Raptors winning by 13 in Toronto but the Magic winning by 4 in Orlando, on Friday. The Magic just have to keep it reasonably close to cover, and they have a solid chance to do so. — Snellings
Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers
6 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line: 76ers (-10)
Money line: 76ers (-480), Hornets (+360)
Total: 220.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.7 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (82.4%)
Questionable: Danuel House Jr., Georges Niang,
Ruled Out: Mark Williams, LaMelo Ball, Dennis Smith Jr., Gordon Hayward, Cody Martin, Tyrese Maxey
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks
6:30 p.m. ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Line: Hawks (-2.5)
Money line: Hawks (-140), Bulls (+118)
Total: 233 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.7 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (64.4%)
Questionable: Onyeka Okongwu
Ruled Out: Alex Caruso, Javonte Green, De’Andre Hunter, Dejounte Murray, John Collins
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Milwaukee Bucks at Houston Rockets
7 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Line: Bucks (-10)
Money line: Bucks (-480), Rockets (+360)
Total: 228 points
BPI Projected Total: 240.8 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (75.7%)
Ruled Out: Wesley Matthews, Joe Ingles, Jae’Sean Tate
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Marjon Beauchamp (available in 99.7% of leagues). The Bucks are coming off a monster road win at Dallas on Friday and face another huge game against the Warriors on Tuesday. Though I haven’t heard anything announced, this just feels like a game that the Bucks could potentially sit their veterans to let them rest. It’s of note that they called up Beauchamp from the G-League ahead of Sunday’s game. He started five games last month and posted two really strong lines (including in one game where the Bucks did sit all their veterans) of 19 and 20 points, 8 rebounds and 3 and 5 3-pointers. Again, this is me playing a hunch, but I think he could be a good play at very low price in DFS in addition to his streaming potential. — Snellings