Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Sunday
All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
Cashing Cleveland: Cleveland is 5-1 ATS at home this season, a continuation of strong home production from a year ago (22-17 ATS). Miami, on the other hand, took sportsbooks for a ride on the road last season (25-15 ATS), but have regressed thus far with a 2-4 ATS mark. Let’s take it a step further. Both of these teams are bottom-10 in pace this season. In games against such opponents, the Heat are 2-4-1 ATS and the Cavs are 3-1 (covering by an average of 8.3 points).
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Fantasy Wasteland: The Hornets/Wizards game isn’t of much interest to DFS managers or annual league streamers, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still benefit from some research. The Hornets’ pace is down 5.3% from their first 10 games and the Wizards’ defense has improved by 15.5% since their first nine games this season. Unders aren’t fun to bet, but winning money is and there are plenty of ways to leverage this information to make it a successful Sunday.
Baking Booker: Looking at an all-day DFS slate or overs in the prop markets? Chris Paul will continue to be sidelined (heel) and that means Devin Booker‘s fantasy stock is set to continue spiking. In the five games since Paul’s injury, D-Book is pouring in 30 points a night to go along with eight assists. The Knicks have seen their defense plummet in recent weeks, as they are allowing a 57.8% eFG% of their past eight games, way up from 48.8% from their first eight.
By Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers
7:00 p.m ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Line: Cavaliers (-9.5)
Money line: Heat (+360), Cavaliers (-480)
Total: 213 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.1 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (76.3%)
Ruled out: None
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Max Strus (available in 76.9% of leagues) is on rinse and repeat as a streamer while the Heat deal with injuries. He’s started eight straight games, and has scored in double figures in 12 of his last 14 games overall. In his last four, he’s particularly picked it up with averages of 19.5 PPG, 3.8 3PG, 3.8 RPG, 1.5 APG and 1.0 SPG in 38.5 MPG. — André Snellings
Fantasy Streamer: Nikola Jovic (available in 98.8% of leagues) has started two straight games with Bam Adebayo (Q, knee) out. If Adebayo sits (check back before the game), Jovic could have the chance to build on back-to-back solid efforts in which he’s averaged 15.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 1.0 3PG in 27.0 MPG. — Snellings
New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns
3:30 p.m ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix
Line: Suns (-6)
Money line: Knicks (+205), Suns (-250)
Total: 227.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.1 points
BPI Win%: Suns (68.6%)
Questionable: Cam Reddish (groin), Mitchell Robinson (knee)
Ruled out: Chris Paul (heel)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Cameron Payne (available in 82.8% of leagues) will continue to start for Chris Paul (out, heel), and is thus in line to keep producing. During the five games that Paul has been out so far, Payne has started and averaged 20.0 PPG, 5.8 APG, 3.6 3PG, 3.0 RPG and 1.2 SPG in 33.6 MPG. Plus, the Knicks are bottom-five in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards. — Snellings
Best Bet: Over 227 points, Knicks +6, Julius Randle over 19.5 points. These aren’t last season’s Suns, or even earlier this season’s. Chris Paul‘s injury is a game changer, but don’t forget the Suns are also without this year’s starting power forward Cameron Johnson and last year’s starter Jae Crowder. In the last five games without Paul, the Suns and their opponents have averaged a combined 239.6 point per game. In their last four, the Suns are 1-3 with their only win the “sure thing” of the Warriors on the road. And, individual opponents have been torching their once-strong defense. Last game, Lauri Markkanen scored a career-high 38 points. The game before, Steph Curry popped for 50. The game before, Bam Adebayo went for 30 and 10. You see the pattern. I like Randle over 19.5, but I also like Jalen Brunson over 18.5. — Snellings
Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards
6:00 p.m ET, Capital One Arena, Washington
Line: Wizards (-5.5)
Money line: Hornets (+185), Wizards (-225)
Total: 221 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.3 points
BPI Win%: Wizards (66.5%)
Questionable: Dennis Smith Jr. (ankle), Mark Williams (ankle)
Ruled out: LaMelo Ball (ankle), Monte Morris (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best Bet: Terry Rozier over 20.5 points. With LaMelo Ball out, Rozier is the clear offensive engine for the Hornets. He’s scored over 20.5 points in three of his last five games, including the last two games that Ball has sat. In the seven games that Rozier has played without Ball this season, he’s averaged 22.7 PPG while going over 20.5 in five of the seven outings. — Snellings
Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings
6:00 p.m ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacremento
Line: Kings (-10)
Money line: Pistons (+360), Kings (-480)
Total: 233.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.3 points
BPI Win%: Kings (85.9%)
Questionable: Keegan Murray (back), Malik Monk (mouth)
Ruled out: Cade Cunningham (leg), Isaiah Stewart (toe), Saddiq Bey (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Killian Hayes (available in 91.7% of leagues) has been starting in place of Cade Cunningham (out, shin), and looks to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Hayes was playing well even before the Cunningham injury, and in his last six games (four starts) has averaged 11.8 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.5 3PG and 0.7 BPG in 29.7 MPG. — Snellings
Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets
7:00 p.m ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Line: Nets (-7.5)
Money line: Grizzlies (+250), Nets (-320)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 232.9 points
BPI Win%: Nets (71.1%)
Ruled out: Jaren Jackson Jr. (rest), Ja Morant (ankle), Desmond Bane (toe), Nic Claxton (personal)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
7:00 p.m ET, Toyota Center, Houston
Line: Warriors (-10)
Money line: Warriors (-550), Rockets (+400)
Total: 232 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.8 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (78.4%)
Questionable: Alperen Sengun (groin)
Doubtful: Kevin Porter Jr. (back)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best Bet: Stephen Curry over 39.5 total points+assists+rebounds. I’m tempted to also go Rockets +10.0, because the Warriors are literally winless on the road this season and the Rockets have only lost one game by double-digits at home. In those circumstances, 10 points seems very aggressive, and the only thing giving me pause is that the Rockets are likely to be without Kevin Porter Jr. (doubtful) and may be without Alperen Sengun (Q) as well. But, whoever wins, Curry is a great bet to go big on Sunday. He, too, knows that the Warriors are winless on the road and will want to do everything he can to stop the skid. Plus, the Rockets are a bad defensive team overall but they’re atrocious against point guards, having allowed the most fantasy points in the NBA to the position. — Snellings
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks
7:30 p.m ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Line: Mavericks (-10)
Money line: Nuggets (+360), Mavericks (-480)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 226 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (84.2%)
Questionable: Ish Smith (calf), Aaron Gordon (illness)
Ruled out: Max Kleber (back)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers
9:30 p.m ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Line: Lakers (-7)
Money line: Spurs (+222), Lakers (-278)
Total: 230 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.5 points
BPI Win%: Lakers (70.3%)
Questionable: LeBron James (adductor), Anthony Davis (back), Juan Toscano-Anderson (back)
Ruled out: Devin Vassell (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
1. Golden State Warriors (123.4)
2. Sacramento Kings (123.2)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (120.8)
1. Miami Heat (107.2)
2. Denver Nuggets (107.7)
3. Detroit Pistons (111.1)
1. Sacramento Kings (85.9)
2. Dallas Mavericks (84.2)
3. Golden State Warriors (78.4)