Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Saturday
ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 10th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Weekend Waivers: It’s always helpful to identify some potentially productive pickups ahead of a busy Saturday slate. If there is a need at center, San Antonio’s Charles Bassey just swatted four blocks last time out and has been efficient with Jacob Poetl out with a knee injury. The Celtics won’t have Al Horford in the lineup due to health and safety protocols. Horford’s absence has interestingly been a boon for combo guard Derrick White, who has enjoyed team-high leaps in usage and fantasy production with the center off the court this season. For the Nuggets, Michael Porter Jr. is out due to a heel injury, which means another heavy workload for the ever-versatile Bruce Brown.
Avdija’s Arrival: The Wizards have lost five straight and enter tonight’s game as underdogs to the visiting Clippers. One key positive for Washington has been the play of third-year forward Deni Avdija, who has averaged 12 points and a dozen combined rebounds and assists and 2.5 steals over the past two games. The sample is small, no doubt, but with roughly 40 minutes per game during this stretch and an expectation for a busy role against Los Angeles, Avdija is a solid streamer and makes for a worthy DFS play given he’s compiled at least 24 DraftKings points in three straight games.
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Out of Towns: With Karl-Anthony Towns still sidelined for the Timberwolves due to a right calf strain, the Timberwolves have had to find creative ways to replace his elite scoring efficiency. Anthony Edwards is pricy at $9,200 on DraftKings for tonight’s tilt with the Trail Blazers in Portland, yet it’s worth noting his usage leaps a team-high 3.1% with Towns off the court this season while he also produces 6.3 more DraftKings points per 36 minutes in such lineups. Defensive force Jaden McDaniels (81% available in ESPN leagues) has also seen a boost in fantasy production with Towns sidelined, scoring just over five more DraftKings points per 36 minutes.
Fantasy Friendly: During a busy eight-game slate, sifting through stats and betting markets can help to identify the best game or games for stacking fantasy lineups. Tonight’s matchup between the Nets and Pacers claims a healthy total hovering around 230 points while the Pacers are just slight favorites. We can already identify streaming candidates from both rosters such as Indiana’s Bennedict Mathurin, who has scored at least 14 in three straight and is a free agent in nearly half of ESPN leagues. For those in truly deep formats, forward Oshae Brissett is a free agent in 99% of leagues and just tallied 16 points and eight boards last night. Brooklyn won’t have Ben Simmons in the lineup on the second leg of a back-to-back, which means more creation duties for Royce O’Neale (62% available) amid a career-best playmaking campaign.
Malik’s Momentum: The Jazz have turned to Malik Beasley in the starting lineup lately with Lauri Markkanen ailing. The results have been impressive, as the scoring guard has averaged 20.5 points while lofting 10.5 3-pointers per game. You won’t get much more than scoring and shooting from Beasley, but the volume is cranked quite high ahead of tonight’s matchup with his former team, a Denver group that ranks 27th in defensive rating. If you need a punt play in DFS or a free agent in redraft, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been productive in a complementary role for Utah’s backcourt.
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
8:30 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California
Line: Celtics (-2.5)
Money line: Celtics (-145), Warriors (+122)
Total: 235 points
BPI Projected Total: 238.1 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (59.7%)
Questionable: Al Horford
Ruled Out: Andrew Wiggins
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat
5 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
Line: Heat (-12)
Money line: Heat (-700), Spurs (+500)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.1 points
BPI Win%: Heat (80.7%)
Probable: Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson,
Questionable: Dewayne Dedmon, Jimmy Butler
Ruled Out: Gabe Vincent
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Jimmy Butler over 32.5 points + assists + rebounds. Butler has played more than 33 minutes in his past three games since returning from a knee injury. He’s surpassed 32.5 PAR in two of these games. The Spurs currently rank 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions and allow opponents an effective field goal percentage of 58.1%. Butler should have a very good game. — Eric Moody
Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Pacers (-7.5)
Money line: Pacers (-305), Nets (+2400)
Total: 224 points
BPI Projected Total: 240.1 points
BPI Win%: Pacers (50.6%)
Ruled Out: Seth Curry, Royce O’Neale, Joe Harris, T.J. Warren, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Nic Claxton, Ben Simmons
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
LA Clippers at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, Washington D.C.
Line: Clippers (-5.5)
Money line: Clippers (-225), Wizards (+185)
Total: 220 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.9 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (55.3%)
Questionable: Will Barton
Ruled Out: Rui Hachimura, Bradley Beal
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: John Wall (rostered in 46.9% of ESPN leagues) is a solid streamer with Reggie Jackson and Norman Powell already ruled out. Wall played 25 minutes or more and scored 28 or more fantasy points over his past three games. — Moody
Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers
7:30 p.m. ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio
Line: Cavaliers (-5.5)
Money line: Cavaliers (-225), Thunder (+185)
Total: 221.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.9 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (73%)
Questionable: Donovan Mitchell, Kevin Love
Ruled Out: Kenrich Williams
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Caris LeVert (rostered in 43.3% of ESPN leagues) is on the streaming radar with Donovan Mitchell dealing with a leg injury. He has averaged 14.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per 40 minutes this season. — Moody
Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago, Illinois
Line: Bulls (-2)
Money line: Bulls (-130), Mavericks (+110)
Total: 224 points
BPI Projected Total: 229.9 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (57.7%)
Questionable: Javonte Green
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. ET, Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
Line: Nuggets (-8)
Money line: Nuggets (-345), Jazz (+270)
Total: 233 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.8 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (67.9%)
Questionable: Lauri Markkanen
Ruled Out: Collin Sexton
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (rostered in 0.9% of ESPN leagues) is a great streamer for managers in deeper formats. The Jazz are shorthanded at guard with Collin Sexton already ruled out and Mike Conley‘s status to be determined on the second night of a back-to-back. Alexander-Walker has scored 25 or more fantasy points in two straight games and the Nuggets aren’t a strong defensive team, ranking 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
Fantasy streamer: Bruce Brown (rostered in 27.3% of ESPN leagues) remains a solid streamer with Michael Porter Jr. out. Brown has averaged 34.4 minutes per game in the eight games Porter Jr. has missed. He’s scored over 35 fantasy points in two of his past five games. — Moody
Best bet: Nikola Jokic over 37.5 points + rebounds. The Jazz have allowed centers to average a high number of PPGs and RPGs against them. Jokic has averaged 38 points and rebounds over his past four games. He’s in a very good spot to exceed that number against the Jazz on Saturday night. — Moody
Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
Line: Blazers (-5.5)
Money line: Blazers (-225), Timberwolves (+185)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 238.4 points
BPI Win%: Blazers (64.3%)
Questionable: Justise Winslow
Ruled Out: Drew Eubanks, Josh Hart
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Damian Lillard over 34.5 points + assists. Lillard has 61 points and 18 assists in his first two games back from a calf injury. Over the last five games, the Timberwolves have given up an average of 126 points per game and are playing on the tail end of a back-to-back. The stage is set for Lillard to deliver another epic performance. — Moody