Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Monday
ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for November 7 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Early-Week Waivers: Cameron Johnson’s meniscus injury combined with Jae Crowder continued absence vaults forward Torrey Craig (99% available) into an important role for the Suns in the weeks ahead. With impressive recent rebounding and defensive rates, Craig does a little bit of everything. Looking to the Knicks, Mitchell Robinson is expected to miss at least a week due to a knee injury, adding minutes and rebounding opportunities to Isaiah Hartenstein’s (87%) fantasy profile. Hartenstein has compiled eight blocks over his past three games while pulling down 24 boards in his last two outings. The Timberwolves won’t have Rudy Gobert in the lineup Monday due to health and safety protocols. This signals an expanded role in the starting lineup for Kyle Anderson (96% available), while Jaden McDaniels (76% available) continues to drive value with awesome defensive production. Looking to South Philly tonight, try to make room for De’Anthony Melton (78%), as he’s expected to play heavy minutes as an important two-way player with James Harden sidelined.
Change Of Guard: With Harden on the shelf, the Sixers offense will be different. Instead of the ball pounding Harden, usage opens up for Tyrese Maxey. It didn’t take long to see that change impact this offense, as they operated at a pace 8.8% faster in their first game without Harden as they did in the first nine games this season. Joel Embiid also sat that game and seems likely to return tonight, but it’s hard to imagine Maxey changing his stripes. Philadelphia plays a Suns team that has operated at a slow pace through nine games this season, including three games against the Blazers. Phoenix has the athletes to run and with Embiid but it’s reasonable to think they pick up their pace in this spot than they have thus far. In Phoenix’s four top pace games, there have been an average of 227.3 points scored and in in the 76ers top four pace games both teams scored an average of 226.3 points. Tonight’s over/under currently sits at 215.
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Important Injury Updates: After missing the past four games due to a calf injury, Damian Lillard – currently seventh in the league in usage percentage – has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s matchup in Miami with the Heat. Scoring guard Anfernee Simons, however, isn’t expected to play. Brooklyn could get Ben Simmons back in the lineup, as he’s also been upgraded to questionable to face Luka Doncic and the Mavericks this evening. Simmons had missed the team’s past four games due to a knee injury, while it will be telling to see how he looks defending the league’s most heliocentric superstar. Former teammate Joel Embiid, fifth in usage, is listed as questionable to face the Suns after missing the past week with a non-Covid illness. Embiid’s participation in practice over the weekend appears to be a positive sign.
Koloko Time: The Toronto Raptors will be without All-Star forward Pascal Siakam for at least two weeks due to a groin injury. Precious Achiuwa (92% available in ESPN leagues) was a logical guess to get more time in the frontcourt alongside Chris Boucher (50.1%) without Siakam’s high-usage game, but Sunday saw rookie Christian Koloko (99%) thrive as the team’s primary paint protector with a career-high six blocks in a win over the Bulls. Priced near the floor on DraftKings at $3,400 for tonight’s rematch with Chicago, it’s savvy to try and roster both Koloko and Boucher ($4,400) ahead of tonight’s game.
Charlotte Values: With Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball ruled out for the Hornets ahead of tonight’s game versus the Wizards, Terry Rozier is positioned as a DFS building block ($7,700 on DraftKings) and a candidate to exceed scoring props as the team’s high-usage offensive engine. Kelly Oubre Jr. (30% available) is also poised to take on a larger role with Hayward sidelined. It’s notable that he has produced at least 16 points in five straight games. Those in deeper category-driven leagues might want to keep an eye on Jalen McDaniels (91%), as he’s averaged 2.8 stocks (steals plus blocks) over the last week.
Threading a Thin Needle: The Pistons backcourt is an exciting one and their matchup with the Thunder sounds favorable, but OKC owns the sixth most efficient defense. This season, just 37.5% of guards with an average PRA of at least 23 exceeded their current season average when they faced the Thunder (going under their average by 1.9 per game). On the flip side, those secondary options? Those with a PRA average under 23? They’ve gone over expectation 80% of the time (by an average of 4.8). Cade Cunningham falls into the former bucket and Jaden Ivey into the ladder tonight. There are props out there where you can play Cunningham under his PRA total and Ivey over and more or less break even if one comes through. If both come through and the trends up to this point continue, you’re off to a great start for Week 4 of the NBA season!
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Philadelphia 76ers at Phoenix Suns
8 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Line: Suns (-2)
Money line: Suns (-140), 76ers (+118)
Total: 216 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.4 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (52.2%)
Questionable: Joel Embiid (illness), Danuel House Jr. (illness), Cameron Payne (foot)
Ruled out: James Harden (foot), Cameron Johnson (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Suns -2. The Suns enter this game with the best record in the Western Conference, and a +11.2 point scoring differential that trails only the Cavs and the Bucks for tops in the NBA. The 76ers are below .500, with a scoring margin of +0.6. The Suns are at home, and should be able to cover this spread as the comfortably better team right now. — André Snellings
Fantasy streamer: De’Anthony Melton (rostered in 23.3% of ESPN leagues) is expected to remain in the starting lineup while James Harden is out with a foot injury. He scored 37 fantasy points in 30 minutes against the Knicks on Friday. Melton is still a solid streamer even when playing against the Suns, who rank third in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Eric Moody
Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
Line: Hornets (-2)
Money line: Hornets (-135), Wizards (+115)
Total: 216.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 223.4 points
BPI Win%: Hornets (58.8%)
Questionable: Dennis Smith Jr. (ankle),
Ruled out: Gordon Hayward (shoulder), Cody Martin (quad), LaMelo Ball (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Monte Morris (available in 45.1% of leagues) and Will Barton (available in 80.8% of leagues) both stepped up on Sunday with Bradley Beal out (Health and Safety protocol). Morris dropped 18 points with 2 3-pointers, 1 steal and 1 assist in 33 minutes while Barton went for 12 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds and 1 3-pointer in 24 minutes off the bench. Both have upside to improve on those numbers on Monday, if Beal sits again. — Snellings
Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic
7:15 p.m. ET, Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
Line: Magic (-4.5)
Money line: Magic (-190), Rockets (+158)
Total: 226.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.9 points
BPI Win%: Magic (63.7%)
Questionable: Jabari Smith Jr. (illness), Kevin Porter Jr. (illness)
Ruled out: Jae’Sean Tate (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Bol Bol is still available in 60.6% of leagues despite averaging 13.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 2.3 BPG in his last seven outings. He’s started the last five games for the Magic, and is coming off his best scoring game of the season with 23 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 3-pointers in 37 minutes against the Kings on Saturday. — Snellings
Best bet: Paolo Banchero over 22.5 points, over 35.5 points + rebounds + blocks. Banchero is in the midst of an early push to end the Rookie of the Year race, averaging 22.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 3.6 APG through his first 10 games. He seems to take particular satisfaction when going at his lottery draft-mates, hanging 27 points, 9 boards and 5 assists on Jaden Ivey’s Pistons to start the season and just dropping 33 points, 16 rebounds and 4 assists on Keegan Murray’s Kings this weekend. On Monday, he faces Jabari Smith’s Rockets, who haven’t defended the power forward particularly well, allowing the position to average 24.6 PPG, 12.1 RPG and 3.6 APG on the season. — Snellings
Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons
7:30 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Pistons (-1)
Money line: Pistons (-105), Thunder (-115)
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 219.6 points
BPI Win%: Pistons (53.2%)
Questionable: Jalen Duren (ankle)
Ruled out: Aleksej Pokusevski (shoulder)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 38.5 points + assists + rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander had an underwhelming performance against the Bucks on Saturday night, but that’s understandable. In terms of points allowed per 100 possessions, Milwaukee ranks first, while the Pistons rank 30th. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 30.5 PPG, 5.9 APG and 4.3 RPG this season along with a usage rate of 33%. He’ll bounce back nicely on Monday night. — Moody
New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers
7:45 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Pelicans (-5.5)
Money line: Pelicans (-225), Pacers (+185)
Total: 234.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 229 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (57.4%)
Questionable: Aaron Nesmith (foot)
Ruled out: Daniel Theis (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Over 233.5. The Pelicans rank eighth in points scored per 100 possesions and the Pacers rank 11th. Indiana is not a great defensive team ranking 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions. The over is 5-2 in the last seven games between these two teams. Tonight’s game should be high scoring as well. — Moody
Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks
8:15 p.m. ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Line: Bucks (-3)
Money line: Bucks (-155), Hawks (+130)
Total: 226.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.2 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (56.3%)
Questionable: Trae Young posters”>Trae Young (shin)
Probable: Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee)
Ruled out: Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee), Pat Connaughton (calf)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 44.5 points + rebounds. Antetokounmpo has averaged 33 PPG and 13 RPG so far this season. When the Bucks and Hawks met just over two weeks ago, Giannis went off for 34 points and 17 boards. Atlanta’s defense ranks 24th in opponent points in the paint, 27th in opponents rebounds per game. Antetokounmpo is primed for another big game — Erin Dolan
Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat
8:30 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
Line: Heat (-7)
Money line: Heat (-285), Blazers (+228)
Total: 226.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 217.3 points
BPI Win%: Heat (76.4%)
Questionable: Josh Hart (ankle)
Doubtful: Anfernee Simons (foot)
Ruled out: Damian Lillard (calf), Gary Payton II (abdomen)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Over 226.5 points. The Bucks’ defense is dominant in the middle, which allows their perimeter defenders (particularly Jrue Holiday) to be more aggressive on the perimeter. The Hawks, though, are perimeter-driven with two engines in Trae Young posters”>Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, which allows them to circumvent what the Bucks do best. Young has traditionally torched the Bucks, averaging 33.0 PPG and 10.7 APG against them last season before delivering 42 points and 5 assists against them in their first meeting this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo has owned the Hawks right back, averaging 32.0 PPG and 5.7APG against Atlanta last season, before dropping 34 and 4 on them last week. In their first matchup this season, the Bucks won by eight points, in Milwaukee, in a game where 238 points were scored. — Snellings
Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls
8:45 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago, Illinois
Line: Bulls (-4)
Money line: Bulls (-170), Raptors (+143)
Total: 222 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.8 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (57.4%)
Questionable: Zach LaVine (knee)
Doubtful: Andre Drummond (shoulder)
Ruled out: Coby White (quad), Khem Birch (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Boston Celtics at Memphis Grizzlies
9:00 p.m. ET, FedExForum, Memphis
Line: Celtics (-3.5)
Money line: Celtics (-165), Grizzlies (+140)
Total: 230.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 229.2 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (60.7%)
Questionable: Steven Adams (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves
9:15 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: Timberwolves (-4.5)
Money line: Timberwolves (-190), Knicks (+158)
Total: 233.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.5 points
BPI Win%: Timberwolves (60.7%)
Questionable: Quentin Grimes (foot)
Ruled out: Mitchell Robinson (knee), Rudy Gobert (COVID-19)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs
9:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Line: Nuggets (-8)
Money line: Nuggets (-350), Spurs (+275)
Total: 234.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.6 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (68.2%)
Doubtful: Ish Smith (calf)
Questionable: Zach Collins (leg)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks
9:45 p.m ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Line: Mavericks (-6.5)
Money line: Mavericks (-260), Nets (+210)
Total: 218 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.8 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (77.2%)
Questionable: Frank Ntilikina (ankle)
Ruled out: Kyrie Irving (suspended)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California
Line: Warriors (-8)
Money line: Warriors (-355), Kings (+278)
Total: 233.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 229.8 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (65.2%)
Ruled out: Donte DiVincenzo (hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Stephen Curry over 27.5 points. The Warriors are currently on a five-game losing streak but Curry has averaged 32 PPG over that span. I like Curry to go over his points prop tonight against a Kings team that ranks 24th in defensive rating — Dolan
Best bet: Kings +8 over Warriors. This game is a reasonable opportunity for the Dubs to break their five game losing streak, as it’s back at home where they are 3-1 on the season (versus 0-6 on the road). With that said, they just aren’t playing great ball right now, and I’d only give eight points from a team that is playing great. Plus, the Kings have been solid of late, winning three of their last four, including two wins on the road and one quality win over the Heat. When these teams played in the first week of the season, at Golden State, when the Warriors were off to a solid start and the Kings still didn’t have rookie Keegan Murray in their starting lineup yet, the Warriors only won by five points. Give me the Kings and the points. — Snellings
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz
10:15 p.m. ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Line: Jazz (-4)
Money line: Jazz (-180), Lakers (+152)
Total: 229.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 232.1 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (68.5%)
Questionable: Jarred Vanderbilt (groin)
Ruled out: Patrick Beverley (illness), Lonnie Walker IV (illness) LeBron James (foot)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Cleveland Cavaliers at LA Clippers
10:30 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Cavaliers (-4)
Money line: Cavaliers (-175), Clippers (+148)
Total: 216 points
BPI Projected Total: 219.7 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (67.4%)
Questionable: Reggie Jackson (knee), Luke Kennard (chest)
Ruled out: Kawhi Leonard (knee), John Wall (rest)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Cavaliers -4. I came into this season with the Cavs projected to do big things in the East and the Clippers as more of a middle-of-the-pack team in the West, and so far the season is playing out accordingly. Despite the Bucks’ undefeated start, a legit argument could be made that the Cavs (with their NBA-leading +12.3 scoring margin) have played better than anyone in the league. The Clippers’ average scoring margin to date is -4.3, and they’ve given no indication that they’re ready to play top-level basketball yet. I’ll take the Cavs and give the points. — Snellings
1. Utah Jazz (118.8)
2.Minnesota Timberwolves (117.3)
3. Golden State Warriors (117.1)
1. Portland Trail Blazers (104.8)
2. LA Clippers (108.9)
3. Brooklyn Nets (108.9)
1. Dallas Mavericks (77.2%)
2. Miami Heat (76.4%)
3. Utah Jazz (68.5%)