Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Friday
Puzzle Pieces: For DFS/over bettors, the target opponents play poor defense and force tempo while under bettors want the opposite (slow moving teams that defend at a high level). The Nuggets are a top-10 pace/bottom-10 defense team … Marcus Smart has 34 assists against 26 shots over his past three games and figures to continue to reward prop bettors in this spot. The Raptors are a top-10 defense/bottom-10 pace team … Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 31.6 points per game has him priced up in prop markets, lending value to the under in this matchup.
Bane Gang: It should surprise no one that the Timberwolves allow the second highest percentage of points scored against to come by way of the 3-ball (39.1%) given their twin tower roster construction and that’s a perfect spot for Desmond Bane (8.6 3PA per game). The Grizzlies are 5-0 when Bane makes at least four triples and he is averaging 41.6 PRA in those games, so if you’re looking for some SGP action in the national TV game, the former Horned Frog is a good place to start.
Veteran Dinosaur: The Raptors are favored tonight in Oklahoma City and will again be without Pascal Siakam. Enter Thad Young. Toronto is 2-1 since the Siakam injury, losing the back-end of a back-to-back and winning the two instances in which they had normal rest. This game fits in the ladder box and in those previous two instances, Young has racked up 16 rebounds in his 43 minutes. He’s a player to target in the prop streets against the worst rebounding team in the Association.
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Streamer’s Delight: Trying to end this week strong? Troy Brown (98% available) deserves a look, as his Lakers host the Kings tonight and the Nets on Sunday. Brown has reached double figures in all five games this month and nearly half of his shots come from downtown this season, a role that increases in importance should LeBron James sit out as expected. Not only does James lead the team in 3PA per game, but his absence likely puts the ball in the hands of the drive oriented Russell Westbrook more than often, magnifying the need for a perimeter threat.
Monk’s Revenge: The Sacramento Kings are playing more competitive basketball lately, spurred in part by bench microwave Malik Monk, who is a free agent in well over 90% of ESPN leagues. The Kings’ scoring guard has added playmaking to his profile with at least four assists in four straight games in addition to posting at least 14 points in his past five. Facing the Lakers, his former team, Monk is poised to play nearly 30 minutes in a high-usage role, making him an ideal DFS bargain, prop target, and streaming candidate.
Get Carter: Get Carter: The Bucks list Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Pat Connaughton, and Khris Middleton as out for tonight’s matchup against the Spurs in San Antonio. The Bucks did the same a few nights ago in Oklahoma City, with guard Jevon Carter erupting for a career outing that included 36 points and 12 dimes in 44 minutes in a close win over the Thunder. Carter is a free agent in 98% of leagues heading into Friday’s slate and is reasonably priced at just $5,300 on DraftKings. Bobby Portis (20% available) and Brook Lopez (35%) are also primed for big numbers.
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
9:30 p.m ET, FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Line: Grizzlies (-4)
Money line: Grizzlies (-178), Timberwolves (+150)
Total: 234 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.9 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (63.3%)
Ruled Out: Naz Reid (illness)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Steven Adams over 10.5 rebounds. Adams is doing the best work of his long career on the boards this season, hauling in nearly 12 per game, thanks to 5.2 offensive markers, and reaching 19 rebounds in two of the past three games. That’s his main contribution to fantasy managers, and not everything in his game is going well — more turnovers, 32% free throw — but he’s met Rudy Gobert many times and we should expect him to handle himself nicely with at least 11 rebounds. — Eric Karabell
Best bet: Desmond Bane over 22.5 points. Bane has averaged 28.5 PPG in his last eight outings, scoring at least 28 points in six of the eight games. In addition, as pointed out in the open of this article, Bane is a high-volume marksman from deep, matched up with a TImberwolves defense that struggles to defend the 3-point line. — Andre Snellings
Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics
7 p.m ET, TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Line: Celtics (-4.5)
Money line: Celtics (-180), Nuggets (+152)
Total: 229 points
BPI Projected Total: 220.5 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (65%)
Questionable:
Ruled Out: Ish Smith (calf), Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 28.5 points. Tatum is averaging 31.2 PPG on the season, has scored at least 31 points in three of his last four games, and will feature in what should be a competitive game against a solid Nuggets squad that (as mentioned in the open) ranks in the bottom-10 in the NBA in defensive rating and top-10 in pace. Recipe for a big scoring game from Tatum. — Snellings
Best bet: Nikola Jokic over 11.5 rebounds. Jokic is coming off his worst rebounding game of the season, in a contest in which he picked up four fouls in the first half and only managed four rebounds for the game. He should bounce-back against the Celtics, who allow the opposing center position to average 17.0 RPG, fourth-most in the NBA. — Snellings
Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic
7 p.m. ET, Amway Center, Orlando. Florida
Line: Suns (-7.5)
Money line: Suns (-320), Magic (+250)
Total: 217.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 223.4 points
BPI Win%: Suns (72.9%)
Questionable: Paolo Banchero (ankle), Chris Paul (heel)
Ruled Out: Moritz Wagner
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Cameron Payne (available in 92.6% of ESPN leagues) is a streaming option pending the availability of Chris Paul. Payne got additional minutes on Monday after Paul left with the injury, delivering 14 points, 5 assists, 2 3-pointers and 2 rebounds in 28 minutes. Payne got the start on Wednesday with Paul out, and responded with 23 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds, 4 3-pointers and a steal in 35 minutes. If Paul sits again, Payne could put up big numbers against a Magic defense that allows the opposing point guard position to average 29.4 PPG and 8.7 APG. — Snellings
Best bet:
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
Line: Knicks (-8.5)
Money line: Knicks (-345), Pistons (+270)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 218.5 points
BPI Win%: Knicks (74%)
Questionable: Cade Cunningham, Hamidou Diallo, Alec Burks (foot), Quentin Grimes (foot)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Line: Raptors (-5)
Money line: Raptors (-210), Thunder (+175)
Total: 219.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 219.3 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (67.5%)
Ruled Out: Precious Achiuwa, Khem Birch, Darius Bazley
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Line: Spurs (-1.5)
Money line: Spurs (-125), Bucks (+105)
Total: 219.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.5 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (58.7%)
Ruled Out: Jrue Holiday, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Jevon Carter (available in 93.9% of leagues) is the marquee streaming option of the night, in a game where all of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have been declared out. In this same circumstance, on Wednesday, Carter set career-bests across the board with 36 points, 12 assists, 5 3-pointers and 4 assists in a win over the Thunder on the road. — Snellings
Best bet: Brook Lopez over 17.5 points. Someone has to score with the Bucks missing Antetokounmpo, Holiday and Middleton. Lopez has stepped up recently with 24 or more points in two of three contests, and 20 or more points in four of seven. He is attempting 12.4 field goals per game, his most since the 2016-17, and it’s a reflection of the team needing him to shoot more. — Karabell
Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California
Line: Warriors (-2.5)
Money line: Warriors (-140), Cavaliers (+118)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 228 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (52.4%)
Ruled Out: Andre Iguodala, Donte DiVincenzo
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Kings (-3.5)
Money line: Kings (-170), Lakers (+143)
Total: 230 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.1 points
BPI Win%: Kings (53.7%)
Questionable: Lonnie Walker IV, Anthony Davis
Ruled Out: LeBron James
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Keegan Murray over 11.5 points. Murray scored a slump-busting 14 points on Wednesday after three straight single-digit efforts. Outside of that three-game swoon, the only three games this season when Murray has played less than 30 minutes, Murray has scored at least 12 points in every other game. He is in a good position to continue his bounce back on Friday, against a likely LeBron-less Lakers defense. — Snellings
1. Memphis Grizzlies (119.4)
2.Milwaukee Bucks (117)
3. Boston Celtics (115.5)
1. Phoenix Suns (105.8)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (108.2)
3. Denver Nuggets (108.2)
1. New York Knicks (74%)
2. Phoenix Suns (72.9%)
3. Toronto Raptors (67.5%)