Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Friday
ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for October 28 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Hidden Edge: Indiana travels to Washington tonight in a game that might not initially catch your eye, but we have a potentially profitable betting trend developing. The Pacers are the league’s worst first quarter team and it’s not even close. We are talking historically bad through five games … they’ve dropped the first stanza by at least 10 points in each one of their games this season. Why is that? Well, this is a team that lacks depth and has one of it’s most promising players in Bennedict Mathurin coming off the bench, a role that naturally limits his first quarter production. To make matters worse, the rookie is shooting 38.5% from the field (28.6% from 3) in first quarters (compared to 46.8% and 41.7% respectively during the rest of the game). The Wizards have won the first period in three of four games this season and will be ready to play after having each of the previous two nights off.
The Broncos take on the Jaguars across the pond at London’s iconic Wembley Stadium on Sunday at 9:30 a.m. (ET) exclusively on ESPN+. Subscribe to ESPN+ and get access to live NFL games, highlights, originals, analysis and more all season long.
Plug-n-Play: Josh Richardson is available in nearly 98% of ESPN leagues and with Devin Vassell (knee) sidelined for at least tonight, he’s worth a look. With Vassell out, J-Rich gave savvy fantasy managers 11 points and 10 assists Wednesday night in Minnesota, becoming just the second player this season to post a 10-assist 0-turnover game. Not bad fill-in production and when you consider he was on the court for 33 minutes (first four games: 20.8 minutes per game), there is counting stat upside to be had on a team that lacks … everything. The Spurs play five games over the next nine days and that includes a back-to-back next Friday-Saturday, making it possible that Richardson fills a nice usage role beyond tonight as Vassell recovers.
What’s the Point?: The Orlando Magic have endured a wave of injuries to their backcourt. Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs had already been sidelined by respective injuries, while Cole Anthony just suffered an oblique issue this week that is expected to sideline him for multiple games. Likely to play uniquely large lineups in the wake of not having a proven NBA point guard available in the rotation, look for Franz Wagner (20% available in ESPN leagues) to consume more possessions as a playmaker against the Hornets tonight. After all, Wagner is second on the team only to Anthony in potential assists with a solid 8.8 per game this season, a clip that makes him a strong DFS play and a savvy target for assist props.
Losing Lillard: The Portland Trail Blazers will be without Damian Lillard for several games due to a calf strain. This Portland rotation isn’t in a great spot to withstand backcourt injuries, a reality that makes Josh Hart (20% available) a must-start in fantasy formats. Hart is second only to Lillard in potential assists per game (8.2) and should, like Orlando’s Wagner, become a more important distributor in the next several outings. For those seeking a streaming candidate in truly deep redraft leagues, Justise Winslow (99% available) sits fourth on the team in passes per game and should see a sizable uptick in minutes and offensive opportunities with Lillard out for tonight’s tilt with the Rockets.
How To Handle Big ‘Dogs: We’ve got a full slate tonight and there are no shortage of “mismatches”. Looking to get involved in some of these games with bigger spreads but not sure the angle to take? Here is the data from last season when a team was favored by at least six points: *47.8% cover rate *52.5% overs when the underdog covers *54.8% overs when the favorite covers *55.9% overs when the favorite wins outright *57.4% overs when the over/under is 225+ *76.2% outright win rate
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns
10:00 p.m ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix
Line: Suns (-7)
Money line: Suns (-285), Pelicans (+228)
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 229.3 points
BPI Win%: Suns (75.5%)
Questionable: CJ McCollum (finger), Zion Williamson (hip), Herbert Jones (knee), Jose Alvarado (back spasms)
Ruled out: Brandon Ingram (concussion)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
7:00 p.m ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Line: Hawks (-6.5)
Money line: Hawks (-260), Pistons (+210)
Total: 229 points
BPI Projected Total: 226.3 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (73.7%)
Questionable: Jaden Ivey (illness)
Ruled out: Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee), Alec Burks (foot), Marvin Bagley III (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic
7:00 p.m ET, Amway Center, Orlando
Line: Hornets (-2)
Money line: Hornets (-125), Magic (+105)
Total: 220 points
BPI Projected Total: 229.7 points
BPI Win%: Hornets (61%)
Questionable: Terry Rozier (ankle)
Ruled out: LaMelo Ball (ankle), Cole Anthony (oblique), Jalen Suggs (ankle), Jonathan Isaac (hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Paolo Banchero over 3.5 assists
As pointed out above, the Magic are out of healthy point guard options. On Wednesday, this translated to long stretches where Banchero was running the point, bringing it up, setting the plays and acting as floor general. I expect Banchero to put a big number on the board in both scoring and assists, since his usage is likely to be very high today, but 3.5 seems like a low bar for his potential assist totals. — André Snellings
Fantasy streamer: Dennis Smith Jr. (available in 61.5% of leagues)
Smith should be universally rostered, at least until LaMelo Ball returns as he has started the last two games, and turned in 16.0 PPG, 8.5 APG, 2.5 SPG, 2.5 RPG and 0.5 3PG in 35.0 MPG. The Hornets are leaning on him as a primary offense creator and go-to guy, letting him throw back to the promise of his lottery rookie days. — Snellings
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m ET, TD Garden, Boston
Line: Celtics (-6.5)
Money line: Cavaliers (+210), Celtics (-260)
Total: 218 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.8 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (71.5%)
Ruled out: Grant Williams (suspended), Darius Garland (eye)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Cavaliers +6.5.
Even without Darius Garland, who has already been ruled out as he heals from an eye laceration, the Cavaliers are getting too many points. I think Cleveland can win this game outright or keep it close. When the Cavaliers scored more than 104.5 points last season, Cleveland went 31-17-2 against the spread and 31-19 overall. The Cavaliers are averaging 113.3 PPG. With Donovan Mitchell and the rest of Cleveland’s supporting cast, the Cavaliers have a good chance of scoring plenty of points against the Celtics. — Eric Moody
Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
Line: 76ers (-1)
Money line: 76ers (-120), Raptors (+100)
Total: 213 points
BPI Projected Total: 219.5 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (56%)
Ruled out: Otto Porter Jr. (personal)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Precious Achiuwa (rostered in 8.1%)
The Raptors embarrassed Philadelphia’s transition defense in an easy win Wednesday, and Achiuwa contributed 17 fantasy points in only 21 minutes. He’s healthy, and he scored more than 30 fantasy points in the two prior games, both against Miami. Achiuwa isn’t starting, but he is getting enough shots, and he has more rebounds than traditional points this season. The way the 76ers have defended, should be a strong Friday option, and after that. — Eric Karabell
Best bet: Tobias Harris over 13.5 points
Harris was oddly quiet in the first game between the 76ers and Raptors Wednesday, taking only five shots and making one, but it’s an anomaly. Harris attempted double-digit field goals in each of the first four games and averaged 15 PPG in that span. Look for the 76ers to get him more involved Friday. — Karabell
Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards
7:30 p.m ET, Capital One Arena, Washington
Line: Wizards (-5)
Money line: Pacers (+185), Wizards (-225)
Total: 229 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.2 points
BPI Win%: Wizards (69%)
Ruled out: Daniel Theis (knee), Corey Kispert (ankle), Delon Wright (hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton over 27.5 points+assists
Haliburton is living up to the preseason hype. He’s averaged 22.6 PPG and 10.0 RPG. So far this season, Haliburton has a usage rate of 29%. He should continue to roll statistically against the Wizards on Friday. Until the sportsbooks realize Halliburton’s value, bettors should take advantage of it. — Moody
New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks
8:00 p.m ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Line: Bucks (-6)
Money line: Knicks (+205), Bucks (-250)
Total: 223 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.4 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (63.5%)
Ruled out: Khris Middleton (wrist), Pat Connaughton (calf), Quentin Grimes (foot)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 28.5 points+assists+rebounds
Brunson has exceeded expectations so far this season, giving the Knicks the point guard they desperately needed. In 34.5 minutes per game this season, he has averaged 20.0 PPG, 8.5 APG, and 4.5 RPG. There is a strong chance Brunson will deliver on Friday night despite the Bucks ranking first in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 17.5 points
Brunson has raised his points total in each game this season, topping 20 points in each of the past two contests. If the Knicks are going to compete, it’s clear Brunson is going to have to score at least 20 PPG, and he’s certainly capable of doing so. He’s averaging 15 field goal attempts per game, and hitting 41.2% on 3-pointers. — Karabell
Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves
8:00 p.m ET, Target Center, Minneapolis
Line: Timberwolves (-7.5)
Money line: Lakers (+250), Timberwolves (-320)
Total: 229.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.9 points
BPI Win%: Timberwolves (77.5%)
Questionable: LeBron James (foot), Anthony Davis (back), Russell Westbrook (hamstring), Kyle Anderson (back)
Ruled out: Thomas Bryant (thumb), Dennis Schroder (thumb)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs
8:30 p.m ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio
Line: Bulls (-5)
Money line: Bulls (-205), Spurs (+170)
Total: 230.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.4 points
BPI Win%: Spurs (50.7%)
Questionable: Zach LaVine (knee)
Ruled out: Devin Vassell (knee), Joshua Primo (glute)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Over 229
The Spurs rank ninth in the league with 118 PPG. The Bulls rank 20th with 111.2 PPG. Both teams are good offensively, but poor defensively, which could lead to a high scoring game on Friday. The Spurs rank 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions played while the Bulls rank 22nd. Here is another way of looking at it. This season, the Bulls have scored seven more points than their opponents, while the Spurs have been outscored by their opponents by 18 points. — Moody
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets
9:00 p.m ET, Ball Arena, Denver
Line: Nuggets (-8.5)
Money line: Jazz (+278), Nuggets (-355)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.2 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (61.7%)
Questionable: Michael Porter Jr. (back), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ankle), Collin Sexton (oblique), Walker Kessler (illness)
Ruled out: Rudy Gay (healthy and safety protocols), Simone Fontecchio (healthy and safety protocols)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Jazz +8.0
The Jazz have a 4-1 record after a week and a half of NBA action was not something on my 2022-2023 NBA bingo card. Utah is a middle of the round offensive team, but I’m pleasantly surprised at how well the Jazz are playing defensively. The Jazz are 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread through five games, and their defense ranks sixth in points allowed per 100 possessions. Keep taking the points until the trend changes for Utah. — Moody
Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers
10:00 p.m ET, Moda Center, Portland
Line: Trail Blazers (-4)
Money line: Rockets (+152), Trail Blazers (-180)
Total: 222.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.3 points
BPI Win%: Blazers (65.2%)
Questionable: Alperen Sengun (illness), Kevin Porter Jr. (quad)
Ruled out: Damian Lillard (calf), Gary Payton II (oblique), Bruno Fernando (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Shaedon Sharpe (available in 96.8% of leagues)
Sharpe could get his shot tonight. The rookie has slowly built up over the last four games, from 0 points in 12 minutes up to 15 points and 8 rebounds in 21 minutes in his most recent game. With Damian Lillard out, the Trail Blazers will need to lean more heavily on their talented but inexperienced rookie to help generate points. He already has three double-digit scoring games in his first five outings despite averaging only 16.4 MPG, so if he gets 25 or more minutes he could put a nice number on the board. — Snellings
Best bet: Jalen Green over 22.5 points
When you watch the Rockets play, it feels like Green could score just about every time down the court that he gets the ball in attack position. And when he scores, he scores in bunches. The biggest question in his nightly scoring line seems to be tied to his aggression and usage, a balance that he and his coaches will work on as the season goes along. But, this matches up as a game when Green could explode, against a Trail Blazers team that will be missing their best player (Lillard, calf) and that ranks in the middle of the pack in defensive metrics. — Snellings