Fantasy basketball: The trade tip to get fantasy managers to agree to a deal
As in: you’re racing against your league’s trade deadline. Gearing up to make one last big move before the playoffs. But your attempts at trade talks aren’t getting any traction.
Here’s something I’ve noticed in Points Leagues trade talks: subtlety goes out the window.
You don’t care how a player performs within a given category. You care about the fantasy points avg. per game!
At this latter stage of the season, you’ve also got a nice, overstuffed, deeply drawn, four-figure, aggregate fantasy point value to employ in trade valuation.
But you’re having trouble getting your fellow managers to bite on a season-altering deal. Even a mutually beneficial one.
Try being a little less obvious.
And by that, I mean statistically obvious.
(And BTW, all of what I’m about to discuss also works if you’re in a roto league… it’s just a little less obvious.)
As someone who’s always on the hunt for atypical value, I’ll tell you: it’s better to assemble deals based on facets of value that lie a little below the surface.
Think in terms of dynamics.
Start with polarity. Who’s hot? Who’s slumping? And think about what really matters: your playoffs. Because if you’re in a league with playoffs, you need to be thinking ahead.
Which dynamic you need most out of your players in a playoff series: consistency or variance?
I’m betting on consistency.
(Not for everybody. You might have a lower-rung team. You might want players that can swing a little in terms of game-to-game consistency. Get enough hot players going at the right time and take out one of the big dogs in your league.)
But most us of need consistency. Steadier night-in, night-out production. And in points leagues, the search for consistency can be tough.
But we can do it. For trades, or even on the wire, the way I like to attack the consistency issue is by position.
Because when it comes to production by position, we tend to run into categorical bias. By “categorical bias,” I mean that there are certain categories that we are programmed to gravitate towards.
Points scored per game is a top-level example. Our eyes always dart straight to the PPG column when assessing a player. Me. You. Everyone.
But let’s go deeper. Let’s look at categorical bias by position. That’s where the biases start to get less obvious. Deeper than just how many points per game a player is scoring.
For a center, we prize blocks. Point guards have to get assists. Shooting guards: steals and 3s.
What I am getting at here?
That it doesn’t matter what kind of league you’re in. Points or roto. Playoffs or none. It doesn’t matter what stage of the season you’re at. Draft night. Mid-April.
The players that tend to fly under the radar, that have the sneakiest value? Players that are generating steady, consistent value within a category that falls outside of the expectations of the position.
Exhibit A: point guards
With ESPN’s new points system placing a high premium on assists, 3s and steals, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that point guards carry a lot of weight in points leagues. If you’re looking to make up a nice chunk of points in a hurry, an upgrade at point guard is a solid place to start.
The problem? When you’re trying to make a less obvious, atypical kind of trade offer — an offer that may be easier to consummate — those are the stats that tend to attract the most attention. That’s bias at play.
So, look for point guards who carry steady value in an atypical category.
Rebounds.
Of all the counting stats, rebounds contain the least amount of sizzle. They only count for one fantasy point. But guess what stat has driven more point guards to outperform their ADP this season?
Rebounds.
Because it’s atypical. Because on draft night, you’re not really going to get excited about a point guard that rebounds well.
And what’s more: rebounds tend to drive consistency. Rebounds are not contingent on ebbs and flows in one’s shot mechanics. Rebounds are less driven by Usage Rate. Less driven by efficiency. Because rebounds tend to be more of a hustle stat.
If you’re a point guard? You’ve either got it in you to be rebounder or you don’t.
Look at performance versus ADP in points leagues. A majority of the season’s biggest point guard ADP success stories are crashing the boards.
Exhibit B: Russell Westbrook
In points leagues, for the season, per game, Westbrook is the seventh-best point guard. He’s outperforming his ADP by almost two rounds. He’s doing what you’d expect in assists: 10.1 per game. But he’s only averaging 21.3 points per game. Only 1.2 steals and 1.3 3s.
What’s driven that overperformance? Rebounds. 9.4 rebounds per game will make up for a lot of shooting slumps. Kyle Lowry is another example of a historically streaky shooter outperforming his ADP thanks to a steady 5.5 rebounds a night.
It works for players way down the Player Rater, too.
Exhibit C: Dejounte Murray
Not a very good shooter. Or even a good shooter. His TS% is an anemic 51.3% Despite leap in minutes (25.6 MPG to 31.2 MPG), Murray has not taken the expect leap in assists and 3s. But he’s still outperforming his ADP by about a round and a half. Why?
Rebounds.
Murray’s 8.0 RPG is a fraction of a rebound behind LeBron’s 8.2 RPG, which means Murray is 0.3 rebounds per game shy of being a top-5 rebounder at his position.
Who would you rather have as your PG in a fantasy playoff series: currently red-hot Trae Young or mildly slumping Ben Simmons?
Young has the flash. The high PPG. The 3s. The higher APG. Over the past couple of weeks, Young’s been hot. He’s outperforming Simmons.
But for the long run? For the playoffs? I’ll take Simmons. The consistency. The value that’s not driven by fluctuating 3-point efficiency. The steady, under-the-radar 8.0 rebounds per game.
So, these are some bigger names. Who are some more gettable point guards — some maybe even on your wire — that are closing the season strong on the glass?
Here’s a shopping list.
(And again: all players outperforming their ADPs).
De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings (last two weeks: 5.4 RPG)
Unlike other players in this column? Fox is not a paragon of consistency. But he is a high-volume, high-minute point guard that is currently rolling across the board.
Will it stick for the duration? One of Fox’s main statistical tells: when Fox is feeling it, he rebounds. And since February, Fox has been feeling it. It’s not as flashy as the 5-steal nights. Or the 14-assist nights. But 22 rebounds in three games is a great sign that Fox is putting it all together at the right time.
Delon Wright, Detroit Pistons (last two weeks: 5.5 RPG)
Wright’s value is inextricably linked to Killian Hayes’ health. And Wright, like others on this list, is prone to some very off shooting nights. But the rebounds give his production a high floor, and he is also capable of huge nights in steals.
Donte DiVincenzo, Milwaukee Bucks (last two weeks: 8.6 RPG)
Depending on how things shake out in the Bucks’ rotation post-trade deadline, DiVincenzo could be in line for enhanced minutes down the stretch. I will admit that, yes, DiVincenzo will post games that are, on occasion, absolutely terrifying. His 3-point, 3-rebound performance against the Nuggets on March 2 was basically the shower scene from “Psycho” in box-score form.
Elfrid Payton, New York Knicks (last two weeks: 5.5 RPG)
I wanted to throw in a waiver wire name.
It’s impossible to predict if Payton will be playing 28-30 MPG come fantasy playoff time. But if he is, look at how he rebounds. There is a huge correlation between how Payton rebounds and his overall performance. For a guy that could be on your wire, he warrants consideration. But on the whole, since February, he’s been serviceable. And if he gets 30.0 MPG, he’s a very nice bench player to have.