Fantasy basketball streamers and NBA betting cheat sheet for Friday
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https://www.espn.com/fantasy/basketball/story/_/id/33698287/fantasy-basketball-streamers-nba-betting-cheat-sheet-friday#Game of the night”>Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
by Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Big Apple Depth: The Knicks haven’t had a traditional lead point guard for much of the season, which had allowed Immanuel Quickley (80% available) and Alec Burks (65%) to have larger roles. Quickley is just a game removed from his first career triple-double. Meanwhile, Burks is an elite rebounder and has averaged 21.5 points over his past two games. Tonight’s matchup with Washington’s porous defense is inviting for not just New York’s backcourt, but also rookie center Jericho Sims (99%), who just delivered a double-double and three blocks against Brooklyn. For those in need of some scoring pop, Obi Toppin (91%) has averaged 19.7 points during his last three outings.
Tank Targets: The Lakers face a Thunder team tonight intent on improving their lottery odds. Oklahoma City has eight players out tonight, leaving the likes of Zavier Simpson (99%) to lead the offense. The undrafted Simpson is just two games into his NBA career and yet has averaged 41 minutes and eight assists in two starts of the lottery-bound Thunder. If he’s active, shares of second-year forward Aleksej Pokusevski (89%) also make sense given his ability to flirt with triple-double outcomes. Forward Jaylen Hoard (95%) has posted 47 points and 26 rebounds across his last two appearances. For the Lakers, Talen Horton-Tucker (94%) and Malik Monk (70% available) have viable paths to 20 points each, while Austin Reaves (99%) is a nice target to exceed scoring props.
The Alps: Houston’s Alperen Sengun (87% available) has a fairly unique game, too. He has posted 14 points in each of his past two games and has averaged 13 boards and 4.5 assists during this stretch. Toronto presents a real challenge given their effective length and speed on defense, but Sengun’s ability to pass out of the post should be key this evening. With Christian Wood ruled out, not only is Sengun an ideal streaming option and DFS factor, but also a fun target for assist and rebounding props.
Lee-ave It to Saben: Saben Lee has been getting more run of late and his aggressive style of play is perfect for fantasy. Over his past five games, his per 36-minute numbers look like anything besides a DFS punt play: 15 points (11.8 shots) and 9.2 assists. His 28-to-3 assist-to-turnover count over that stretch implies that there’s underlying good decision-making in his profile. With the Bucks coming off of a hard-fought win over the Bucks last night, don’t be surprised if Lee pays off his dirt-cheap price tag early on!
Weekend Waivers: As the playoffs approach, identifying productive players to plug and play can provide an edge. Drew Eubanks (63% available), for instance, continues to post big lines for Portland and should pace his team in minutes against the Mavericks tonight. If you need a few extra games played over the weekend, adding Sacramento’s Damian Jones (90% available) or Davion Mitchell (57%) nets you two games. The Kings play the Clippers on Saturday and the Suns on Sunday. The same rings true for the fantasy values on all of the teams that play on Saturday, as Sunday’s finale sees the entire league in action.
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
8 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, FL
Line: Heat (-2)
Moneyline: Heat (-130), Hawks (+110)
Total: 229 points
BPI Projected Total: 221 points
BPI Win%: Heat (66.7%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: Lou Williams, Gabe Vincent, Markieff Morris, Caleb Martin
Notable: The Hawks have covered six of their past seven as they end the regular season on a high note.
Best bet: Trae Young under 27.5 points. Young has been hot lately, scoring 30 or more points in four of his last five games, but those all came against struggling defenses. Conversely, it’s Young who struggles against the Heat. This season he’s averaging only 22.3 PPG on 39.7 FG% in three games against the Heat, following up his two games against the Heat last season in which he put up 16.5 PPG on 30.8 FG%. They’re one of the few teams that have just had Young’s number. — André Snellings
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
Line: Bucks (-6)
Moneyline: Bucks (-270), Pistons (+220)
Total: 227 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.5 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (63.3%)
Key players ruled out: Marvin Bagley III
Questionable: Cory Joseph
Notable: After seeing five of six games go under, consecutive Detroit games have gone over the total and they get a Milwaukee team coming off a taxing game last night against Boston.
Fantasy Streamer: Isaiah Stewart. With Marvin Bagley III out, Stewart (36% available) becomes the Pistons’ primary big man. He had 19 points, 14 rebounds, one assist, and a block Wednesday against the Mavericks. Stewart could put up a similar line against the Bucks on Friday. — Eric Moody
Fantasy streamer: Killian Hayes. Hayes (57% available) might see significant minutes, with Cory Joseph questionable. Hayes has averaged 14 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.4 APG, and 3.0 SPG over the past five games. — Moody
New York Knicks at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington D.C.
Line: Wizards (-1)
Moneyline: Wizards (-115), Knicks (-105)
Total: 221.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.5 points
BPI Win%: Wizards (53%)
Key players ruled out: Mitchell Robinson, Nerlens Noel, Kyle Kuzma
Notable: Even after building the big lead against Brooklyn on Wednesday night, the Knicks failed to cover and saw the under hit … they are 1-3 ATS in their past four and have cashed under tickets in five of their past six.
Fantasy Streamer: Obi Toppin. Toppin is firmly on the streaming radar with Mitchell Robinson out. He has been exceptional and has averaged 20 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.3 APG, and 1.3 BPG over the past three games. Toppin is in a position to get a lot of minutes and usage and he’s delivering. — Moody
Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Line: Nets (-7)
Moneyline: Nets (-300), Cavaliers (+240)
Total: 228.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225 points
BPI Win%: Nets (68.9%)
Key players ruled out: Goran Dragic
Questionable: Evan Mobley
Notable: Perception isn’t always reality. Four straight Net games (and six of the past seven) have gone under the total despite this being discussed as a historic offense … the books give them plenty of scoring credit.
Best Bet: Kyrie Irving over 27.5 points. Irving has been in a shooting slump the past couple of weeks, but he has still averaged 29.2 PPG over his past five games because he takes such a huge volume of shots. The Nets are battling for positioning in the play-in tournament against a Cavaliers team that has struggled to defend guards without Jarrett Allen. Look for Irving to shoot early and often and put a big scoring number on the board. — Snellings
Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON, CA
Line: Raptors (-14.5)
Moneyline: Raptors (-1400), Rockets (+800)
Total: 228.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 226 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (83.2%)
Key players ruled out: OG Anunoby
Notable: The Rockets are 5-1-1 ATS over their past seven games and get a Raptors team that is looking ahead to the playoffs (load management potential, something that we saw last night).
Fantasy Streamer: Thaddeus Young (57.8% available) could get some extended run on Friday night. While the Raptors haven’t listed any players as out, they have clinched the five seed in the East and have very little to play for on the second half of a back-to-back. Toronto’s starting five leads the NBA in minutes played and with OG Anunoby already out, Pascal Siakam is likely to sit after playing 37 minutes last night. This opens up space for Young and Chris Boucher (39.0% available) to have potentially big games. — Snellings
Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago, IL
Line: Bulls (-2)
Moneyline: Bulls (-135), Hornets (+115)
Total: 228 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.5 points
BPI Win%: Bulls (50.5%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: Alex Caruso
Notable: The fading Bulls have failed to cover back-to-back-to-back home games.
Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Line: Mavericks (-18)
Moneyline: Mavericks (-2400), Blazers (+1100)
Total: 221.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 223 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (91.5%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: Maxi Kleber
Notable: The Mavericks have seen five straight games go over the total and they’ve covered four of those contests.
Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz
9:30 p.m. ET, Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
Line: Jazz (-3)
Moneyline: Jazz (-150), Suns (+130)
Total: 226 points
BPI Projected Total: 215 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (50.1%)
Key players ruled out: none
Notable: The Jazz have seen four of their past five games go over the total after seeing five of six go under Vegas’ projection.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Line: Lakers (-8)
Moneyline: Lakers (-360), Thunder (+285)
Total: 227.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228 points
BPI Win%: Lakers (61.7%)
Key players ruled out: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook
Notable: The Thunder are 9-3 ATS over their past 12 games.
Fantasy streamer: Malik Monk. LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook have been ruled out against the Thunder. Monk (68% available) should find success against an Oklahoma City team that ranks 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions. He has averaged 18 PPG, 4.6 APG, and 3.4 RPG over his past eight games. — Moody
Fantasy streamer: Zavier Simpson. Simpson (99.8% available) is an excellent streamer for those playing in deeper formats. With the Thunder dealing with several injuries, he could surprise a lot of fantasy managers against the Lakers, who rank 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
1. Dallas Mavericks (119.1 points)
2. Toronto Raptors (118.5 points)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (115.9 points)
1. Portland Trail Blazers (103.8 points)
2. Phoenix Suns (107.3 points)
3. Utah Jazz (107.3 points)
1. Dallas Mavericks (91.5%)
2. Toronto Raptors (83.2%)
3. Brooklyn Nets (68.9%)