Fantasy basketball: Jae’Sean Tate, Kelly Olynyk among Rockets on the rise
The rosters have been reshuffled for the duration. Aside from upcoming, unfortunate injuries, we are done with radical shifts in player movement.
Real-life NBA rosters are kinda… sorta… locked. Now it’s time to ponder what might shift within those lineups. Because I’m sure you feel like you still have work to do.
Last week, we looked at my Washington Wizards, a team answering the question: “Do we push for the playoffs or recede into Lotteryland?”
Because thanks to their high-pace, low-defense style of basketball, any Wizard getting 25-plus minutes a night is fantasy-relevant. So we discussed that there are multiple Wizards primed to deliver some late-season fantasy goodness, even as the team seems primed to slide deep into lottery contention.
Lo and behold, they actually backed me up. Rui Hachimura may have played the best week of his career (22.8 points, 6.8 rebounds). It was sans Bradley Beal, and still defensively bereft, but numbers are numbers. New addition Daniel Gafford? Gafford got big minutes and provided the first legit shot-blocking the Wizards have had in eons. He rejected five shots in two games. Chipped in 24 points, 11 rebounds and… a turned ankle. So Wizards.
My point? At this moment in the NBA season, your best shot at finding real fantasy help is on teams like Washington. Because lottery teams offer another dynamic your teams crave: rotational change. In the last third of the season, as hopes fade, lottery-bound squads will begin to play their young upside a little more. This happens in the name of developing said young upside. But it also happens in the name of trying to lose a few more games to accrue more ping pong balls.
In essence? We are looking for teams that are doing some late-season Process. The Process-era Sixers were masters at overinflating their players’ stats via a high-possession style. Another trick they excelled at: trying players at other positions. The fantasy benefit: new combinations of production.
What are we would-be Hinkies looking for?
High pace. High offensive efficiency (not prevalent in most lower-run teams). At least six players clocking in over the 25-MPG mark. Players with upside on verge of getting more minutes. Players teams need to assess to see how they might fit next season.
And most importantly ? Low expectations. Or even better? Teams that have entered the full-on Process. Put up a fight, put up a lot of points… but remember that winning isn’t everything.
Those Hinkie-era Process Sixers teams always put new late-fantasy-season names on the radar. Because all of those above factors will conspire to create unexpected sources of production. Now let’s take a look at another NBA squad that’s in flux: the Houston Rockets.
The Houston Rockets and the Wizards have a lot in common. They recently exchanged point guards. They’re posting similar records. Both can blow healthy leads. Both have wild mood swings: not only within a game, but within a quarter.
Look at last night’s Rockets game versus the Nets. They showed some first-quarter explosiveness. Jumped out to a gigantic lead. Then, bit by bit, Houston let Brooklyn back into the game. The Nets threw down a huge run in the fourth quarter… and Kyrie Irving closed out a comeback win. Very Rockets.
These swings occur because of Houston’s high pace. And because Houston is perpetually tinkering with their rotation, we can also expect swings within the team’s portfolio of production. That produce names with rapidly changed fantasy fortunes.
So. skipping the two names that are already on most fantasy rosters (John Wall and Christian Wood)… who should we be watching?
Kelly Olynyk, PF/C
Here’s a player that fits the mold of someone his team needs to assess to gauge a longterm fit.
In fantasy basketball, Olynyk is the equivalent of a toolsy AAAA MLB player. Always on the cusp of establishing real value. Flashes real upside. Has brief flirtations with consistency. Will storm into a bigger role. That role slips away. There are a few bad games. And then the cycle starts anew.
Well, Olynyk as a Rocket makes all kinds of short-term fantasy sense. Because Olynyk doesn’t need to start to produce. He just needs to cobble together enough of a rotational role to stay about 25 minutes per game. And when his 3-point shot is falling, his defensive counting stats also tend to rise. And that’s when he can help your team.
The Rockets are trying Olynyk out in different spaces. Seeing if Olynyk can play with Christian Wood. So far, Olynyk is fitting in. Take a look at his last three games: 18.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.8 3s, 1.7 blocks + steals. In points leagues, he’s been just as valuable as Wood. Those are streamable stats, and stats that could even stick on your bench.
Jae’Sean Tate, SF
I love Tate. He’s the perfect late-season, low-expectation rookie tweener glue guy.
That’s a lot of adjectives. Boil it down to this: the Rockets need to prove they have some young pieces. Tate is definitely making their brass look good. Tate does a little bit of everything, but is inconsistent offensively, which means he’s probably available in your league. And even on the nights where his shot isn’t falling, he’ll chip in with some other categories.
With Tate, I’m looking for some PF eligibility: because that’s where he’s starting. I’m looking more statement games. Nights where he puts it all together. His biggest statement game to date was back on 3/16 against the Hawks: 25 points, six rebounds, six assists, four 3s, a block and a steal. I think Tate has a few more lines like that in him. His up-and-down shot can make him a tough streamer.
Tate’s numbers tend to look better within larger sample sizes. Like his last four games: 13.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 3s, 1.0 steals, 1.8 blocks. It’s a quiet little line, but the defensive stats and solid 3-point production mint Tate as a 1+1+1 candidate.
Kevin Porter Jr., PG/SG
The rest of Houston’s post-deadline guard rotation is a work in progress. But Porter, by far, has the clearest path to fantasy goodness. Aside from Tate, Porter is the Rocket I’m most excited about.
Very young player with a bumpy recent history but huge upside. And a player who shows it pays to watch what’s happening in the G-League. Because over the past week, Porter’s been replicating his Rio Grande Valley Vipers numbers with the Houston Rockets: 18.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.7 3s. No defense, but Porter packs some steals + blocks potential, too.
D.J. Augustin, PG
It doesn’t make a lot of sense to push Wall down the stretch. So, Augustin, even in a backup role, will have fantasy value. In a roto league, Augustin is as solid a streamer assist bet as you’ll find. Add Augustin for the assists and maybe he’ll give you something in 3s and points to boot.
Danuel House Jr., SG/SF and Sterling Brown SG/SF
This is an under-the-radar timeshare. Both players have gotten opportunities for more minutes. Both have flashed potential. Both can be steals + 3s guys for streaming.
And this doesn’t have to be a timeshare: their multipositional status means there’s a way to find both players meaningful minutes. Right now, it’s House that’s got some fantasy momentum. He was one of the players that helped the Rockets almost upset the Nets last night: 18 points, 5 rebounds, 4 3s, a block and a steal.
Kenyon Martin Jr., SF
I love last-name bias. (Warning: even knowing what I’m talking about here can really, really date you.)
Martin got some attention a few weeks ago after the P.J. Tucker deal. In the aftermath, Martin got a chance to see what he could do. He had four nice games. And then Tate went to work and started gobbling up minutes.