Fantasy basketball and NBA betting cheat sheet for Wednesday
Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
by Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Bonus Brothers: While the Knicks are a double-digit underdog to the Sixers, there’s still great intrigue around tonight’s first ESPN game, given it’s James Harden‘s home debut. It’s also compelling because Philly’s team total is set at 116.5 points, while they’ve averaged 129 points in the two games of the bearded era. Supporting such elite offensive efficiency is the fact that 47% of Philly’s possessions have come in the bonus (league average is 24%).
Stock Watch: Sticking in South Philly, we find Matisse Thybulle averaging 9.5 points in the last two games serving as a deft off-ball cutter via Harden. This is still a modest scoring clip, but it’s enough to keep him on the floor for heavy minutes, helping those incredible stock (steals + blocks) numbers surface. Rostered in just 6.6% of leagues, Thybulle has collected six steals across the last two games and faces a Knicks team averaging 15 turnovers of the last three.
Trust The Tanking: The Pacers made it clear at the deadline that winning now is not a priority, but Buddy Hield must not have gotten the memo. In his seven games with Indiana, he’s averaging 21.1 points (49.6% FG), 5.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists (18 points, 6 assists and 0 turnovers against these Magic on Monday). Small sample, but extend those averages for an entire season and they’d all be career bests.
Rising Sun: Cameron Johnson (84% available) turns 26 years old tomorrow and could well get the celebrating started early against a Blazers team that has been outscored 256-187 over their past two games. Johnson is averaging 19.7 PPG post-All-Star Break and has made at least three triples in four consecutive games.
Probable Payne: Another angle from the Suns’ rotation is point guard Cameron Payne being listed as probable to play against Portland’s porous defense tonight. Posting 19.1 points, 6.7 assists, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per 36 minutes with Chris Paul off the floor this season, Payne (rostered in 6.2% of leagues) could command an important scoring and playmaking role with Paul still weeks away from returning.
Feeling Fultz: On the other side of that game is Markelle Fultz (88% available, $4,700 on DraftKings) who made his season debut against the Pacers Monday night (10 points and 6 assists in 16 minutes). As long as he is healthy, Fultz is an interesting fantasy/prop bet option, especially against a bottom-5 team in terms of defensive efficiency.
Line: Bucks (-4.5)
Moneyline: Bucks (-190), Heat (+160)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 220 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (52.2%)
Trends: as of 4 p.m. ET
Bucks (Spread) 52% of tickets, Heat 77% of dollars
Over 74% of tickets, 84% of dollars
Bucks ML 66% of tickets, Heat 66% of dollars
Key players ruled out: Kyle Lowry, Markieff Morris, George Hill, Brook Lopez
Questionable: Caleb Martin (Achilles)
Doug Kezirian and Erin Dolan discuss the key NBA plays you need to make tonight in the NBA. Listen!
Notable: The Bucks blew out the Hornets on Monday night and the one-sided nature of that game resulted in them snapping a string of eight straight overs.
Best bet: Bucks under 115.5 points. The Heat’s defense has the Bucks’ number — especially Giannis Antetokounmpo. Miami’s zone defense throws a wrinkle into the Bucks’ offensive firepower, and Milwaukee sports the 6th lowest offensive efficiency against the Heat. — Anita Marks
Best bet: Bam Adebayo over 32.5 total points+ assists + rebounds. Adebayo has been playing at a high level of late, averaging 22.0 PPG, 10.9 RPG and 3.5 APG during 11 games in February. The only three times he didn’t go over 32.5 PAR during that stretch were in three blowout wins where he averaged under 25 MPG. Yet he still averaged 30.3 PAR even in those limited minutes. — André Snellings
Line: Cavaliers (-4)
Moneyline: Cavaliers (-170), Hornets (+145)
Total: 218 points
BPI Projected Total: 215.5 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (65.2%)
Key players ruled out: Rajon Rondo, Caris LeVert
Questionable: Darius Garland (back)
Notable: The Cavaliers are 1-4 outright over their past five games and have failed to cover each of those games
Fantasy streamer and DFS play: Brandon Goodwin (rostered in 2.5%). Goodwin is of interest, pending the status of Garland. In three games since the All- Star break with both Garland and LeVert out, Goodwin has averaged 13.3 PPG, 7.7 APG, 4.3 RPG, 1.3 SPG and 1.3 3PG in 32.3 MPG. But, watch Garland’s status, because his return likely leads to much lower usage for Goodwin. — Snellings
Line: Magic (-1.5)
Moneyline: Magic (+105), Pacers (-125)
Total: 232 points
BPI Projected Total: 224 points
BPI Win%: Magic (53.7%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: Chris Duarte (toe), Lance Stephenson (ankle)
Notable: Over tickets have come through in 13 of Indiana’s past 16 games (they’ve managed to cover just five of those games).
Line: 76ers (-10.5)
Moneyline: 76ers (-650), Knicks (+450)
Total: 223 points
BPI Projected Total: 211 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (79.9%)
Key players ruled out: Derrick Rose
Notable: Two games into the James Harden era, the 76ers are +37 in terms of scoring differential against the spread, averaging 129 points in the process.
Best bet: Harden over 10.5 assists. James Harden and Joel Embiid are the new power couple in the NBA and tonight is Harden’s Philly debut so expect some extra love. Short sample size, but in two games, Harden has averaged 29 points and 14 assists. The 76ers pace of play increases with Harden on the court and the Knicks allowed Philly to score 125 points a few days ago. The Knicks’ defense is not good in the post, so expect Harden to feed Embiid in the paint a lot tonight. — Marks
Best bet: Tobias Harris under 15.5 points. The 76ers seem to have formed a new Big 3 in Harden, Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. In the small sample of two games, Harris has been the odd man out, averaging only 9.0 points on 9.0 shots with usage rates well below his season averages. Harris is a good enough shooter/scorer that he should eventually bounce back to some extent, but during the acclimation process his numbers may be lower than usual as he’s further down the usage pecking order. — Snellings
Line: Jazz (-12.5)
Moneyline: Jazz (-1400), Rockets (+800)
Total: 232.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.5 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (83.7%)
Key players ruled out: none
Notable: In their past 11 road games, the Jazz are 3-7-1 ATS with overs going 8-3 in those contests.
Line: Pelicans (-6)
Moneyline: Pelicans (-250), Kings (+205)
Total: 235 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.5 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (67.1%)
Key players ruled out: Terence Davis
Questionable: Richaun Holmes (back)
Notable: The Kings are seeking a third straight cover, a streak that would match their longest run of ATS success this season.
Line: Nuggets (-14.5)
Moneyline: Nuggets (-1600), Thunder (+850)
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 214 points
BPI Win%: (93.4%)
Key players ruled out: Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort, Josh Giddey
Notable: The thin air of Denver hasn’t slowed the scoring output recently… overs are 10-2 in the past 12 Nugget home games.
Best bet: Nikola Jokic triple-double (+140). The Thunder are dealing with a number of injuries — Aaron Wiggins and Josh Giddey being the two most significant. OKC will not have an answer for Jokic — who missed a triple-double by two points the last time these teams met because he sat the last 15 minutes of the game. — Marks
Fantasy streamer and DFS play: Tre Mann (rostered in 10.0%). Mann has played well of late, getting extra opportunity while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey dealing with injuries. In his last five games, Mann has averaged 19.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2.4 3PG and 1.6 SPG. — Snellings
Line: Suns (-10.5)
Moneyline: Suns (-650), Trail Blazers (+450)
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.5 points
BPI Win%: Suns (86.4%)
Key players ruled out: Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Jusuf Nurkic, Eric Bledsoe, Justise Winslow
Notable: The Suns have dropped four of their past five ATS (this coming after a strong 10-5-1 stretch against the number).
Fantasy streamer and DFS play: The absence of Paul has led to several lightly rostered Suns having expanded production opportunities. As mentioned above, Cameron Johnson (rostered in 18.3% of leagues) has played well to the tune of 19.7 PPG, 3.7 APG, 3.7 3PG and 3.0 RPG since the All-Star break. Jae Crowder (rostered in 16.8% of leagues) has averaged 15.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.7 3PG and 2.3 SPG. Cameron Payne (6.6% rostered) hasn’t played, has posted great numbers with Paul off the floor this season. — Snellings
1. Utah Jazz (121 points)
2. Phoenix Suns (116.7 points)
3. Denver Nuggets (115.2 points)
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (98.7 points)
2. New York Knicks (101 points)
3. Portland Trail Blazers (104.6 points)
1. Denver Nuggets (93.4%)
2. Phoenix Suns (86.4%)
3. Utah Jazz (83.7%)