Fantasy basketball: Adjusting expectations for rookies post NBA Summer League
Let’s take a look at how my impressions of those six players developed based on their performances in the NBA Summer League, starting with the big man in Texas.
Wembanyama was, of course, the biggest draw in the Summer League and a lightning rod player among fans and analysists. Touted as the greatest NBA prospect since LeBron James, if not ever, Wembanyama had a disappointing first performance with only 9 points on 2-for-13 shooting from the field. Of course, he bounced back with a huge 27 point, 12-rebound effort in his second game before the Spurs shut him down for the summer.
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My impressions, after watching both games in person, was that Wembanyama’s second performance was more indicative of his potential this season than his first. In the first game, the Spurs ran their offense to get Wembanyama looks on their first handful of possessions, and he was able to use his size and moves to get a good shot each time. But most of the shots rimmed out, with his only early score coming on a break where he got into the paint and sealed a smaller defender and finished easily from near the rim.
It seemed that Wembanyama’s cool start from the field, in conjunction with some conditioning and rust question marks, may have affected his confidence the rest of the game. As the game progressed, he didn’t attack as much and instead settled for looks from behind the arc, where he started 0-for-5 before finally hitting one late in the game.
Wembanyama’s most impressive offensive plays in Game 1 were associated with his ball-handling and passing ability, both of which were advanced for a 7-foot-5 center. Here is an example from early in the game, where Wembanyama brought the ball up the court, drew a triple-team near the free throw line and dropped a semi-no-look dime to a teammate for an easy dunk:
I my notes from Game 1, I have comments like “Wembanyama seems tight early; also may be trying to get used to the speed of the game”, or “Not explosive at all right now”. But, in hindsight, there were reasons why Wembanyama’s Game 1 may have looked like it did. While the other top prospects were preparing and practicing with their teammates for the summer league, Wembanyama was in the midst of a press tour and media circus the likes of which is rarely seen.
This was epitomized, on the second day of the NBA 2K24 Summer League, when instead of playing or practicing for the league, Wembanyama was on a panel with NBA Hall-of-Famers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Isiah Thomas on the evolution of the NBA. Wembanyama was preparing to become an NBA superstar and ambassador, not his game, and that showed in Game 1.
In Game 2, Wembanyama started finding his rhythm as a scorer. He started the game slowly again, but after getting fouled and missing two free throws, on the next possession he got a catch-and-shoot 17-footer from the elbow that he drained that seemed to get him going. From there, many of the same shots that he missed in Game 1, Wembanyama was able to knock down in Game 2. He really got it going late, when the Spurs made a furious comeback from double-digits down to cut it to a one-possession game late. Wembanyama was actively calling for the ball and making big shots, showing emotion as he brought the team back
Here was an example of Wembanyama setting up in the post, then flashing to the circle and receiving the entry with the defender on his back and finishing with a nice fadeaway jumper:
His shooting touch was impressive; when he had it going, Wembanyama’s jumpers rarely touched the rim before settling softly into the net. I could see why he was often compared in the pre-draft process to Kevin Durant as a scorer.
The Durant comp on offense is an interesting one, for good and for bad. Wembanyama does have the soft shooting touch and range that seems likely to develop into consistent production from downtown, but like Durant it could take time for Wemby to get there. It’s easy to forget now, but in his rookie season Durant only made 0.7 3PG on 28.8 3P%. Wembanyama could follow a similar trajectory, after only shooting 27.5% from behind the arc in the French League last season.
Also like Durant, Wembanyama is a great ball-handler for his size but is extremely slim and lanky. On the dribble, both players handle the ball like a player 7-8 inches shorter than their heights. For 6-foot-11 Durant, this means he handles the ball effectively like a big guard, but for Wemby, it means he handles the ball like an agile forward. This is an important distinction, because I saw Wemby dribble himself into trouble and turnovers in the Summer League as smaller players were able to disrupt his handle when he got into traffic. He also had trouble with players swiping down on the ball and knocking it out of his hands.
His ability to run the offense off the dribble should eventually be a strength as he settles into the NBA game, and Wemby also shows signs of excellent court vision and passing ability that could allow him to develop into a valuable team-offense hub from the five. But again, this will be a process as he settles into the speed and physicality of the NBA game.
As or where Wembanyama is most likely to make his biggest impression early? Defense. Even in his first Summer League game, when people were disappointed by his 2-for-13 shooting performance and he seemed so out of sorts, Wembanyama still turned in a strong defensive performance with flashes of excellent statistical upside. He was credited with five blocks, and by my unofficial count that may have been conservative.
In the two games he played, he was credited with eight blocked shots in just over 54 minutes of action. While a pace of more than 7.1 blocked shots per 48 minutes may not be sustainable to the NBA game, that level of production even in a short Summer League stint is eye-popping.
And it’s not just that he blocked the shots, it was how. Wembanyama did some traditional rim protecting, helping off his man and getting the block. He also had some on-ball blocked shots on his own man, in the paint. But his most exciting block might have been his on-ball block of a 3-pointer by second overall pick Brandon Miller. That is a signature block for Wembanyama, showing that his absurd length and timing can allow him to block a jumpshot from even a 6-foot-9 shooter. This skill could make Wembanyama a menace at disrupting the pick and pop game, a staple in today’s 3-point heavy NBA offenses.
Wembanyama is also going to pull down his fair share of rebounds this season. He grabbed a total of 20 rebounds in his 54 minutes of Summer League action, even though he wasn’t particularly effective at boxing out or banging in the paint. Almost every night, in the NBA, Wembanyama will be facing players that are stronger and better natural rebounders than him. But even as a rookie, before he starts developing more muscle, Wemby is going to get boards just by dint of being 7-5 with long arms and good mobility. The ball is going to find him on a good number of shots.
So, bottom line, what did the Summer League show me for Wembanyama? That he may not come into the league as dominant as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (28.8 PPG, 14.5 RPG) or even his fellow Spurs No. 1 overall pick David Robinson (24.3 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 3.9 BPG). While Wembanyama is compared to them as prospects, that is based on upside. These were players in their early-mid 20s, at full physical maturity that were already in their basketball primes. Wembanyama is 19 years old, still growing, and playing on a new continent with a different language and culture. He isn’t anywhere near as good, now, as he should be in a few years.
That said, Wembanyama does have the game to be put in the same breath with other teenaged phenoms we’ve seen hit the NBA in the last generation. Durant, LeBron James and Luka Doncic all entered the league as teenagers and went on to have Rookie of the Year campaigns. All were a year or two away from posting the type of video game numbers they would eventually be known for, but were still able to impress as rookies. I expect the same from Wembanyama.
Post-Draft projections:
21.1 PPG (51.0 FG%, 82.0 FT%, 32.1 3P%), 10.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.0 BPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.2 3PG
Summer League adjust:
19.7 PPG (48.9 FG%, 77.8 FT%, 30.0 3P%), 9.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.4 BPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.9 3PG
Miller, the No. 2 overall pick in June, played five summer league games spread across two different leagues. He played two games in California, then three in Las Vegas. His averages were solid: 15.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.4 APG and 1.2 SPG, but his actual performance was very up-and-down with some nice highs but also some concerning lows.
Here was one of the highs, knocking down a contested 3-pointer off a brush pick-and-pop, ditching his initial defender (Wembanyama) and opening up for the spot-up look:
The biggest concern I had with Miller this summer was his lack of scoring aggression. The Summer League format is built for scorers to operate on-ball and take over the game. Neither the defenses or the offenses are very sophisticated, so excellent shooters and scorers can get their shots consistently. In that environment, for Miller to have such extended stretches where he was willing to settle for long 3-point looks, even when they weren’t falling, was a potential red flag.
The mitigating circumstance, though, is that the Hornets already have an elite on-ball playmaker in LaMelo Ball that will be the offensive engine for his team. It is plausible that Miller was either asked or chose to approach the Summer League in the same role that he’ll play on the Hornets, not to attack more as an on-ball threat because that won’t be what he does once the season begins.
Either way, Miller’s game right now seems predicated on knocking down the deep ball at a good clip. He came into the Summer League with questions about his ability to finish explosively in traffic in the paint, or to draw fouls doing so, and he didn’t answer those questions with his performance. He could still be a solid scorer as a rookie with a nice all-around game, but after watching him in the Summer League I have adjusted my expectations for his scoring down a bit from my initial projections.
Post-Draft projections:
17.6 PPG (44.0 FG%, 85.0 FT%, 36.4 3P%), 6.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.8 BPG, 0.8 SPG, 2.0 3PG
Summer League adjust:
15.1 PPG (43.5 FG%, 81.0 FT%, 35.3 3P%), 6.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.7 BPG, 1.1 SPG, 1.8 3PG
Henderson only played three quarters of one game in the Summer League before leaving with an injured shoulder, but in that short span he put together a very impressive performance. His game was as advertised: quick, explosive, able to get into the paint and either finish or set up teammates, streaky jumper, aggressive defense. Here was his first bucket of the Summer League, a contested 16-footer off the bounce:
Here, he draws a double-team off the probing dribble and hits a baseline cutter for an easy dunk. At this point in the first quarter, Henderson had 13 points, 3 assists and 3 rebounds.
In the first quarter of his game against a Rockets team that featured two super-sophomores (Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason) and two elite prospects from the 2023 draft (Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore) who would go on to be undefeated while playing together, Henderson was clearly the best player on the court.
Scoot’s Summer League action was too small of a sample size to generate big conclusions, but what he showed was impressive. In addition, since I made my initial projections immediately after the Draft, Damian Lillard has publicly asked to be traded and the expectation is that he has played his last game for the Trail Blazers. With Scoot now expected to get the keys to the franchise from Day 1, I am increasing my projections for his production this season.
Post-Draft projections:
17.0 PPG (43.5 FG%, 77.0 FT%, 31.2 3P%), 4.7 RPG, 6.8 APG, 0.4 BPG, 1.0 SPG, 0.9 3PG
Summer League adjust:
19.1 PPG (43.5 FG%, 77.0 FT%, 33.1 3P%), 4.7 RPG, 6.8 APG, 0.4 BPG, 1.4 SPG, 1.1 3PG
Thompson also had an impressive debut at the Summer League against Henderson’s Trail Blazers, but he injured his ankle in the fourth quarter and didn’t play again. Thompson was every bit the athletic, aggressive playmaker on both offense and defense that he was advertised to be.
His primary scoring method was to get into the paint and finish, using a combination of explosiveness, power and finesse. He had a memorable tear drop finish from about 12 feet away that was all touch, and here’s an example of him finishing through contact for an And-1:
Thompson often took his turn running the point for the Rockets, showing comfort operating off the dribble and finding open teammates to run the offense. He had experience playing point guard at Overtime Elite, and it showed. He ended the game with five assists vs. only two turnovers in 28 minutes. He’s unlikely to run the point for the Rockets during the regular season, but he has playmking skills when called upon.
While he had a strong offensive game, where Thompson really flashed was at the other end. Thompson was a menace on the defensive end of the court. He was quick and physical both on-ball and as a help defender, consistently disrupting passing lanes and getting his hands on opposing shots. That was evident live action, so it wasn’t surprising to check the box scores and see that he registered four blocks and three steals in the game. (His ankle injury actually occurred on a blocked shot attempt, which illustrates his aggressive defensive instincts but also acts as a bit of a cautionary tale for the risks of playing that style in the NBA.)
Thompson has the game to contribute right away, but he might have an uphill battle to earn minutes on a Rockets team with a lot of perimeter talent. They brought in Fred Van Vleet and Dillon Brooks this offseason, have franchise player Jalen Green at the two, and still have Kevin Porter Jr., Tari Eason and other rookie (and Vegas Summer League MVP) Cam Whitmore as well.
So, while his game was impressive, my projections for him might still go down a bit just on opportunity/minutes questions.
Post-Draft projections:
12.6 PPG (45.3 FG%, 77.1 FT%, 33.1 3P%), 4.9 RPG, 3.0 APG, 0.5 BPG, 1.1 SPG, 1.0 3PG
Summer League adjust:
9.8 PPG (45.3 FG%, 77.1 FT%, 33.1 3P%), 4.7 RPG, 3.0 APG, 0.7 BPG, 1.3 SPG, 0.9 3PG
Thompson, like his twin brother Amen, came as advertised as an athletic, aggressive defensive wing that is ready to be a disruptor at that end of the floor right now.
He played four games for a Pistons squad that featured several players projected into the rotation for the main team, including Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren and James Wiseman. He played in the 3-and-D style role that he is likely to fill for the team, and his defense was much more advanced and ready for prime time than his 3-point game.
Thompson had at least one steal in every game and at least two blocks in every game except one. He pressed his defensive assignments on the perimeter, bodied them up if they made it to the paint, and got his hands on a lot of passes and shots both on-ball and as a helper. He also crashed the boards hard, grabbing eight defensive boards and 10 total rebounds per game.
Thompson struggled a bit with his 3-pointer through the first three games, making only one of his first six attempts from behind the arc, but he did finish strong with a 2-for-5 performance in his last game. His shooting stroke was a bit off overall, as he only made 11 of his 17 free throw attempts (64.7 FT%).
He was able to finish in the paint, though, making 17 of his 32 shots from inside the arc and drawing 4.3 FTA per game. That will serve him well if he can get out on the break for the Pistons, but as a 3-and-D player he will need to get more consistent with his 3-point accuracy.
Post-Draft projections:
11.0 PPG (44.9 FG%, 75.3 FT%, 31.7 3P%), 5.3 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.6 BPG, 1.3 SPG, 0.9 3PG
Summer League adjust:
9.2 PPG (45.5 FG%, 72.1 FT%, 29.7 3P%), 5.7 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.7 BPG, 1.4 SPG, 0.9 3PG
Black’s game matched his college scouting report. He is tall and strong, with the size to play on the wing but the game to play combo guard. He has a strong all-around game, but needs to work on his shooting and ability to finish in the paint.
Black made only one of his six 3-point attempts in three games in Vegas, and he also shot only 54.5% from the free throw line. He has size, but isn’t an explosive athlete so he has to use craftiness to score in the paint. Unfortunately for his production as a rookie, the Magic already have multiple high lottery pick guards from recent years that have a similar scouting report (e.g. athletic, do-everything players with weaker shooting skills) but that have started developing that jumper.
It is hard to see Black beating out Markelle Fultz or Jalen Suggs, and he still has to potentially contend with Cole Anthony and Gary Harris for backcourt minutes as well. In the frontcourt, Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero are looked in at forward, and Black would have competition to earn backup wing minutes as well.
I think Black has solid long-term upside, but after the Summer League and getting a better feel for how his game would fit on the Magic, I am scaling back my projections for him this season.
Post-Draft projections:
11.8 PPG (43.7 FG%, 76.5 FT%, 32.4 3P%), 4.6 RPG, 4.4 APG, 0.4 BPG, 0.9SPG, 0.9 3PG
Summer League adjust:
8.7 PPG (43.2 FG%, 71.8 FT%, 29.4 3P%), 4.1 RPG, 4.0 APG, 0.3 BPG, 0.8 SPG, 0.9 3PG