Fantasy baseball pitching rankings, lineup advice for Monday MLB games

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• Pitching projections: Next 10 days
• Hitter ratings: Next 10 days• MLB depth charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin

The fantasy week begins with a 10-game slate, with the action commencing in South Beach at 6:40 PM ET with the Miami Marlins hosting the Philadelphia Phillies. Edward Cabrera will take the hill for the home team while Taijuan Walker (36%) gets the honor for the visitors. Walker is the top-rated streamer on the docket despite incurring an up-and-down July. Control has been Walker’s main issue all season with July witnessing 13 walks in 23 2/3 innings. However, Walker fanned 21 while issuing just two homers, so he mustered a league average 4.56 ERA over that span. The Marlins have the fourth-lowest walk rate in the league, adding to Walker’s allure.

J.P. France (18.7%) is the second-highest-ranked spot starter as the Houston Astros open a home series against the Cleveland Guardians. France isn’t especially dominant with a 16.7% strikeout rate, but he’s pitched at least six frames in 10 of his 13 starts, with four lasting seven stanzas. This is a boon in points leagues where innings are heavily scored. The Guardians don’t fan much, but they’ll tote the ninth lowest wOBA facing right-handers into Minute Maid Park.

Brayan Bello (28.6%) is like France in that his 20.3% strikeout rate is below average, but he pitches deep into games. Bello has logged at least six frames in seven of his last nine starts, including four seven-inning efforts. On Monday, the Boston Red Sox open a series in the Pacific Northwest, where Bello will face the Seattle Mariners lineup with the 11th lowest wOBA facing right-handers. Bello has a chance to rack up a few extra punch outs with the Mariners sporting the second-highest strikeout rate in the league with a righty on the hill.

Monday marks the Guardians debut of Noah Syndergaard, who draws a rejuvenated Astros offense as Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have recently returned. The narrative is Cleveland has nothing to lose by acquiring Syndergaard since they have several young infielders to replace the departed Amed Rosario. What the Guardians have to lose is any game Syndergaard starts as he’s exhibited limited evidence, he can be useful down the stretch. His fastball is down to 92 MPH and he no longer throws the wipeout slider which made him Thor. Syndergaard’s change-up is only five mph slower than his fastball, limiting its effectiveness. Cleveland has developed a reputation for getting the most out of their pitchers, so maybe they can work with Syndergaard’s arsenal which also includes a cutter and curve ball. However, it’s a risk rostering Syndergaard.

Something else to consider is not only does Syndergaard yield an inordinate number of stolen bases when he’s on the hill, but the Guardians bullpen leads MLB in steals allowed. Houston has swiped the 12th most bags in the league, so expect the club to be aggressive. Corey Julks (1.9%), Chas McCormick (30.4%) and Jeremy Pena (47%) all have at least 10 steals, with a good chance of padding their totals in Monday’s affair.

Monday means most fantasy offenses have a couple of holes. It’s usually inefficient to use a transaction to backfill the catcher position, but with the San Diego padres opening a series in Coors Field, and southpaw Austin Gomber on the hill for the Colorado Rockies, Luis Campusano (1.7%) will enjoy the platoon edge.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 5%) vs. Seth Lugo

Gary Sanchez (SD, C — 4%) at Austin Gomber

Trent Grisham (SD, CF — 4%) at Gomber

Joc Pederson (SF, LF — 6%) vs. Ryne Nelson

Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 24%) vs. Lugo

Luis Campusano (SD, C — 1%) at Gomber

Elias Diaz (COL, C — 41%) vs. Lugo

Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF — 46%) vs. Andrew Abbott

Carlos Santana (MIL, 1B — 20%) at Jake Irvin

Jurickson Profar (COL, LF — 9%) vs. Lugo

Ty France (SEA, 1B — 67%) vs. Brayan Bello

Alex Verdugo (BOS, LF — 86%) at George Kirby