Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Wednesday’s slate begins early, with a 12:35 p.m. ET interleague tilt in the Steel City. Alex Faedo (98% available) takes the hill for the Detroit Tigers while Mitch Keller (85% available) and the Pittsburgh Pirates will try to protect their home turf. Both club’s offenses are weak, so both starters are in play as streamers, though Faedo is in a better spot, despite being on the road. Faedo has tossed at least five frames in each of his past six starts, with no more than two walks and two earned runs allowed in any game. He’s only fanned 21 in 32 innings, but he checks ample boxes to provide a midweek pitching boost.
The long ball plagued Mike Minor (94% available) in his 2022 debut last week as the Washington Nationals took him deep three times in four frames. Minor faces an Arizona Diamondbacks offense on Wednesday with the second lowest wOBA facing lefthanders along with the third highest strikeout range in that scenario. Look for Minor to rebound at home. Dane Dunning (90% available) has thrown a couple of clunkers, but he’s also hurled more than five innings in seven of 11 starts, two of which have lasted at least seven stanzas. Innings are integral to points league scoring, as are strikeouts and Dunning has fanned 63 in 61 1/3 innings, putting the righty in play for a road game against the Cleveland Guardians.
Josiah Gray (73% available) is tied for third in MLB with six wins, despite registering a 4.71 ERA. The wins aren’t a reason for fantasy deployments, but 10 decisions in 11 starts suggest Gray is giving the Nationals useful innings along with 63 punch outs over those 57 1/3 frames. Gray has a favorable matchup in South Beach on Wednesday against an improving, but still non-daunting Miami Marlins offense. The last arm to consider streaming is Oakland Athletics pitcher Jared Koenig (99% available), who will make his MLB debut against the Atlanta Braves.
The New York Yankees facing Chris Archer and the Los Angeles Dodgers drawing Brady Singer will be popular spots for bats. An under-the-radar source is in Camden Yards with the Baltimore Orioles hosting Marcus Stroman and the Chicago Cubs. Many of the bats (Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini) have experienced a big spike in rostership, but they still make for an underpriced option for DFA stacks. However, Jorge Mateo (13%) and Ramon Urias (3%) are both better than they’ve played lately. Mateo is especially alluring as Stroman has already been victimized by six stolen bases in 47 1/3 innings.
Early on, there was a lot of concern with Shane Bieber‘s drop in velocity, but lately he’s increased his strikeout rate, fanning 33 over his last 28 innings. On paper, a matchup against the Texas Rangers is favorable for padding that total, but Bieber’s underlying metrics don’t support the recent dominance. While it’s more fun rooting for the over on a strikeout prop, doing so feels like a trap. While he should be started in traditional fantasy leagues, fading Bieber in DFS and betting the under in strikeouts is the sneaky play.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 36%) vs. Merrill Kelly
Christian Walker (ARI, 1B — 34%) at Mike Minor
Nick Senzel (CIN, CF — 1%) vs. Kelly
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 31%) vs. Zack Thompson
Manuel Margot (TB, RF — 50%) vs. Thompson
Ramon Laureano (OAK, CF — 9%) at Ian Anderson
Kyle Farmer (CIN, SS — 29%) vs. Kelly
Alejandro Kirk (TOR, C — 34%) at Brady Singer
Tommy La Stella (SF, 2B — 2%) vs. Antonio Senzatela
Patrick Wisdom (CHC, 3B — 48%) at Jordan Lyles
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 68%) at Alex Wood
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 58%) at Shane Bieber
Luis Urias (MIL, 3B — 72%) vs. Aaron Nola
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 62%) at Sean Manaea
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 60%) at Wood
Kolten Wong (MIL, 2B — 70%) vs. Nola
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B — 92%) at Manaea
Willy Adames (MIL, SS — 84%) vs. Nola
Brandon Nimmo (NYM, CF — 78%) at Manaea
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C — 81%) at Alcantar