Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• MLB Depth Charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
Wednesday features a full 15-game slate with three contests in the 12:25 PM ET block, so get those lineups set early. An intriguing place to look is in one of the early games as the Cincinnati Reds lineup has emerged from its slumber to score 31 runs in the four previous games leading into Tuesday’s action. Adrian Houser will take the ball for the visiting Milwaukee Brewers. Brandon Drury (20% rostered in ESPN leagues) leads the way with his eligibility at second, third and outfield. Joining Drury as options are Tommy Pham (38% rostered in ESPN leagues), Tyler Naquin (3% rostered) and Colin Moran (1%).
It’s an extremely difficult schedule to find starters to stream, in part due to many teams waiting to announce their mound choice. The top known option is Nick Martinez taking the hill as the San Diego Padres host the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs offense has gone into hibernation, averaging the second fewest runs per game over the past week. Meanwhile, Martinez has helped fill the void with Blake Snell still out. In his first season back in MLB after spending 2018-2021 pitching in Japan, Martinez has fanned 22 in 26 2/3 innings though his 3.38 ERA is artificially low as suggested by his 1.43 WHIP. Even so, Martinez should be able to limit traffic facing a soft Cubs lineup.
One of the tougher calls on the Wednesday card is whether to trust Berrios/” title=”Jose Berrios posters”>Jose Berrios in Yankee Stadium. The Toronto Blue Jays righthander is coming off a subpar effort against the Cleveland Guardians where he yielded six runs in 4 2/3 innings, failing to register any strikeouts. His velocity was in line with his prior two outings, so last time out was just one of those nights. Berrios usually rises to the occasion, so while it’s defensible to reserve the righthander, his history suggests he’ll step up and pitch well in a game between two of the top teams in the game, let alone the AL East.
After playing a doubleheader on Tuesday, the Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers will be relying on inexperienced arms with Zach Logue making his second start for Oakland while Detroit’s Joey Wentz will make his major league debut. With both offenses struggling, an argument can be tendered for either as a streamer, though Wentz’s setup is a bit more favorable. The Athletics are fanning at the third highest rate in the league over the past week while Wentz fanned 26 in 19 2/3 innings for Triple-A Toledo before his promotion. Wentz isn’t likely to work more than five frames, but the Tigers bullpen surprisingly sports the second-best ERA in the majors.
On paper, the matinee in the desert between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins should be a low-scoring affair with Merrill Kelly and Sandy Alcantara taking the ball for their respective sides. However, the Snakes offense is heating up while the Fish catch Kelly coming off a long 8 2/3 innings outing, so his leash could be shorter. Admittedly, it’s betting on a narrative, but taking the over on what should be a conservative line could be profitable.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Juan Yepez (STL, 1B — 6%) vs. Spenser Watkins
Harrison Bader (STL, CF — 26%) vs. Watkins
Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 9%) at Vince Velasquez
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 23%) vs. Aaron Civale
Paul DeJong (STL, SS — 2%) vs. Watkins
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 39%) vs. Adrian Houser
Ramon Laureano (OAK, CF — 11%) at Wentz
Ben Gamel (PIT, LF — 4%) vs. Robbie Erlin
Robbie Grossman (DET, LF — 46%) vs. Zach Logue
Brad Miller (TEX, 1B — 5%) vs. Brady Singer
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 68%) at Alex Cobb
Randy Arozarena (TB, LF — 85%) at Shohei Ohtani
Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B — 90%) at Jameson Taillon
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 75%) at Cobb
Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 66%) vs. Bailey Falter
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 58%) vs. Brady Singer
Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS — 74%) vs. Nathan Eovaldi
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR, LF — 92%) at Taillon
C.J. Cron (COL, 1B — 96%) at Cobb
Connor Joe (COL, LF — 84%) at Cobb