Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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After a two-day respite from setting early lineups, matinee baseball returns on Wednesday. Three of the four starters are rostered in well over 50% of ESPN league, but Steven Matz (45% rostered in ESPN leagues) is available in a tick over half as the St. Louis Cardinals host the New York Mets. The visiting Mets have one of the higher scoring lineups in the league, though they’ve struggled against southpaws in the early going. Backed by a solid defense in a pitching venue, Matz is a solid streaming option, just note the game starts at 1:15 PM ET.
The Houston Astros lineup is averaging the eighth fewest runs per game in MLB. Their offense is due for an uptick which can commence at any time. Even so, Glenn Otto (1% rostered) is an under-the-radar streaming candidate, as well as cost-saving DFS choice, as the Texas Rangers host the Astros in Arlington. Otto opened eyes in his first start, displaying an increasing swinging-strike mark across the board, but most notable was his curveball which he deployed considerably more than last season.
MacKenzie Gore’s (48%) prospect status was such a roller coaster ride, it’s hard to believe he’s still just 23-years-old. His first two major league starts are encouraging, though 10 strikeouts with four walks in his inaugural 10 1/3 innings warn not to get caught up in his early 1.74 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Gore’s first road outing is in the Great American Ballpark. However, don’t let that sway you from streaming him against a Cincinnati Reds squad scoring the fewest runs per game in the league.
The Boston Red Sox offense has been quiet, in large part to facing some good pitching. Still, good lineups are supposed to perform better. The early struggles have suppressed DFS salaries and even though they’ll be adjusted to account for Ross Stripling talking the hill for the host Toronto Blue Jays, expect both teams to score some runs with Michael Wacha taking the ball for the visitors, and Garrett Whitlock not available since he’ll be starting on Thursday. Stacking either side along with betting the over makes sense (or cents).
Early on, the smart money has been on taking the under on strikeout props. Overall, punch outs are down, and starters aren’t working deep enough into games to rack up the requisite whiffs. On the other hand, some teams are fanning at a high clip, including the Baltimore Orioles. Jordan Montgomery takes the hill in Yankee Stadium against the Orioles, and even though Montgomery’s 18.3% strikeout rate so far is five ticks below his career mark, his tendency to amass innings against lesser opponents, along with the vulnerability of the visitors lands Montgomery as a fun pick to beat his strikeouts prop.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Eric Hosmer (SD, 1B — 37%) at Vladimir Gutierrez
Taylor Ward (LAA, RF — 6%) vs. Zach Plesac
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 21%) vs. Marco Gonzales
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 43%) at Bryse Wilson
Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B — 9%) at Wilson
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 35%) vs. MacKenzie Gore
Brad Miller (TEX, 1B — 10%) vs. Cristian Javier
C.J. Abrams (SD, SS — 7%) at Gutierrez
Bobby Dalbec (BOS, 1B — 17%) at Ross Stripling
Tony Kemp (OAK, 2B — 8%) at Jakob Junis
Owen Miller (CLE, 2B — 71%) at Shohei Ohtani
Franmil Reyes (CLE, DH — 81%) at Ohtani
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 70%) at Ranger Suarez
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 78%) at Joe Ryan
Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 59%) at Ohtani
Myles Straw (CLE, CF — 73%) at Ohtani
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS — 89%) at Dylan Cease
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 66%) at Charlie Morton
Javier Baez (DET, SS — 89%) at Ryan
Anthony Santander (BAL, RF — 62%) at Jordan Montgomery