Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• Pitching projections: Next 10 days
• Hitter ratings: Next 10 days• MLB depth charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin

Wednesday has brought day baseball all season, with the last Wednesday of July continuing the trend. Action begins early with a 12:05 p.m. ET contest in the nation’s capital with the Washington Nationals hosting the Colorado Rockies. A few minutes later, the Tampa Bay Rays entertain the Miami Marlins.

There are a few pitchers on the card who may be making their last start with their present clubs. There’s also a small chance they’re scratched if their team is already involved with serious trade discussion. The probable Wednesday starters rumored to be on the block are Marcus Stroman, Michael Lorenzen, Lance Lynn and Jack Flaherty.

Gavin Williams (10.2% rostered) is in no danger of being traded as the Cleveland Guardians rookie is being counted on to help the club chase down the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central, which is now more challenging with Shane Bieber out until September. Williams is set for a home date with the Kansas City Royals, rendering him one of the top streaming candidates on the card. Williams has only 26 strikeouts in 33⅔ innings, while walking a generous 15 batters. However, he’ll face a Royals lineup averaging the second-fewest runs per game in MLB. Kansas City has the league’s worst wOBA facing righties, along with the fifth highest strikeout rate.

Something must give in one of the day’s top matchups when Kyle Bradish (44.5%) and the Baltimore Orioles visit Ranger Suarez (27.5%) and the Philadelphia Phillies. The interleague tilt features a pair of solid starters, both worthy of a fantasy start, facing potentially dangerous lineups. Suarez gets the edge in the rankings as he’s pitching at home, but he’s been in a rut this month. In four July starts, Suarez has posted a 6.14 ERA and 1.86 WHIP, with a pedestrian 17 punchouts in 22 frames. Even more of an issue is control and command woes as he’s walked 12 while issuing four homers in that span. In June, Suarez was stellar with a 1.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, so he can turn things around.

Even though he’s ranked lower, Bradish could be the better option for a spot start. He’s strung five straight quality starts, with a 1.39 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over that span, fanning 32 with only seven walks and two homers allowed over that stretch. By the numbers, the Phillies wOBA is just league average against right-handers, but any lineup with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos is capable of having a big night. Even so, Bradish has emerged as matchup proof, thing the riskiness may make him a better GPP DFS play than traditional fantasy starter.

A safer option for a hump day spot start is Patrick Sandoval (30.0%) who will take the hill in Comerica Park when the Los Angeles Angels visit the Detroit Tigers. Picking on the Tigers’ lineup has become Pavlovian, but to be fair, they’re better with a left-hander on the hill. Even though, Sandoval is in play as he’s pitched well in a pair of July efforts, recording 12 strikeouts in 12⅓ frames. Walks have been an issue, but Detroit isn’t especially patient.

Given running is often predicated by the opponent, the Nationals lead the league with 14 stolen bases since the break. Next up are the Phillies with 13, followed by the Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs with 11. Of particular interest Wednesday are the Brewers, who swiped three bags in Monday’s tilt with the Cincinnati Reds. Ben Lively will be on the bump for the Reds and even though only three steals have been recorded in his 60⅓ innings, the Brewers appear to be aggressive and might look to continue padding their pilfers. Christian Yelich leads the club with 22 while Owen Miller (5.2%), Joey Wiemer (1.6%), Blake Perkins (0.1%) and Andruw Monasterio (.4%) are all under-the-radar Brewers benefiting from the club’s newfound penchant for stealing bases.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 14%) vs. Patrick Sandoval

Wilmer Flores (SF, 2B — 20%) vs. Hogan Harris

Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 25%) at Jake Irvin

Max Kepler (MIN, RF — 3%) vs. Bryce Miller

Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF — 18%) vs. Marcus Stroman

Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 48%) vs. Alec Marsh

Danny Jansen (TOR, C — 14%) at Tony Gonsolin

Sal Frelick (MIL, CF — 5%) vs. Ben Lively

Matt Vierling (DET, CF — 1%) vs. Sandoval

Jeimer Candelario (WSH, 3B — 17%) vs. Peter Lambert

Josh Jung (TEX, 3B — 66%) at Framber Valdez

Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 88%) at Valdez