Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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Wednesday’s 15-game schedule starts early with the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the Cincinnati Reds at 12:35 p.m. ET. Overall, there are six matinees, with nine evening affairs.

The slate offers a few intriguing stream options, beginning with Kenta Maeda taking the hill in T-Mobile Field for the Minnesota Twins in the third game of a four-game set with the Seattle Mariners. Maeda’s 5.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP don’t appear to be fantasy friendly but take out the April 26 game where the New York Yankees blasted Maeda for 10 earned runs in three innings, the 35-year-old righty has posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 39 strikeouts in 33 frames. The Mariners have struggled facing right-handers, sporting the 11th lowest wOBA and second highest strikeout rate in the league.

Next up is Brayan Bello (41.1%), though it’s best to act quickly since he’ll be a hot commodity with his road date with the Oakland Athletics on the docket. In his first post-break outing, the 24-year-old righty picked up where he lefty off, posting a quality start in Wrigley Field, though he did surrender a pair of long balls. Bello’s last seven efforts have been quality starts, as he’s recorded a 2.51 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over that stretch. The key has been mixing his pitches to induce weak contact as he’s only fanned 34 in these 46 2/3 innings. A pitcher cannot be trusted to keep generating weak contact, so Bello will need to miss more bats to maintain a high level of success. This is less of a concern on Wednesday, as Bello faces an Athletics lineup with the second worst wOBA and third highest strikeout rate with a righty on the hill.

On the surface, Aaron Civale (22.7%) has been quietly enjoying a rebound campaign. However, last season’s 4.92 ERA was well over a run higher than the associated estimators as was victimized by an unfortunate 62.5% left on base mark. This season, the opposite is true as his 4.45 xFIP and 4.59 SIERA are almost two runs higher than his actual 2.65 level. A .245 BABIP and 82.5% left on base mark have artificially lowered Civale’s ERA and WHIP. While the numbers warn of an impending ERA correction, Civale low walk and home run rates should soften the blow. Regression is independent of the opposition, so with that in mind, Civale is in play as a Wednesday streamer as he’ll face the Pirates who sport the fifth lowest wOBA against righties, along with an above average strikeout rate.

Pop quiz: What team has the highest strikeout rate facing left-handed pitching? Wrong, it’s the Milwaukee Brewers. Cristopher Sanchez (2.9%) is largely flying under the radar, but a 2.77 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in five starts since being inserted into the Philadelphia Phillies rotation merits attention, especially since he has a Wednesday home date with the Brewers. Admittedly, like Bello, Sanchez needs to increase his strikeouts as he’s punched out only 22 in his prior 26 frames, but he has the platform to get started against Milwaukee.

With the caveat Austin Gomber hasn’t given up more than two runs in each of his last four outings, three of which were at home, the chance to stack the right-handed brethren on the Houston Astros in Coors Field remains enticing. Mauricio Dubon (19.0%), Corey Julks (4.4%), Chas McCormick (7.1%) and Yainer Diaz (6.2%) all enjoy the platoon edge on the vulnerable southpaw.

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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Joc Pederson (SF, LF — 7%) at Graham Ashcraft

Yainer Diaz (HOU, C — 6%) at Austin Gomber

Mauricio Dubon (HOU, CF — 19%) at Gomber

Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 28%) vs. Brandon Bielak

Jurickson Profar (COL, LF — 9%) vs. Bielak

LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, RF — 19%) at Ashcraft

Chas McCormick (HOU, LF — 3%) at Gomber

Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF — 45%) vs. Trevor Williams

Nolan Jones (COL, RF — 7%) vs. Bielak

Andrew McCutchen (PIT, LF — 21%) vs. Aaron Civale

Gunnar Henderson (BAL, 3B — 68%) vs. Julio Urias

Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS — 94%) vs. Ross Stripling