Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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After a holiday slate with games staggered throughout the day, there is only one afternoon affair on Wednesday, with 14 contests under the lights. The early game is an interleague affair with J.P. France (12.8% rostered) and the Houston Astros hosting the Colorado Rockies. With the recent struggles of Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez‘s sprained ankle, Houston will rely on France to keep the momentum rolling the Astros took three of four from the Texas Rangers in the Lone Star Series. France isn’t dominant as he fanned 26 in his last 39 1/3 innings, but he pitched at least six frames in each of those six outings, recording a quality start in the past five. The Rockies’ wOBA on the road facing right-handers is a couple of ticks above average, but they do fan at an above average clip, perhaps aiding France in that department.

Bobby Miller (40.3%) checks in as the day’s top ranked streamer when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Pittsburgh Pirates. After Miller began his career with a .78 ERA over his first four starts, the rookie has struggled in his past three, posting a 9.39 ERA and 1.89 WHIP with 12 punch outs and seven walks over those 15 1/3 frames. The Pirates have the league’s worst wOBA with a right-hander on the hill over the past month.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a good option for those looking for a spot starter. He is ticketed to come off the IL for Detroit Tigers against the Oakland Athletics. Hogan Harris (1.0%) has not pitched well, but he is also in play against a Tigers offense scoring the third-fewest runs per game in the league, while striking out at an above average clip. Normally, the safe play is to wait at least a start before deploying a hurler coming off a long absence, but when the opposing lineup has been the league’s poorest facing southpaws for the past month, exceptions can be made.

Something must give on Wednesday when fledgling Boston Red Sox ace Brayan Bello (29.2%) toes the rubber in Fenway Park against the Rangers and the league’s highest-scoring offense. After struggling in his first two starts of the season, Bello has recorded a 2.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 59 strikeouts in 65 2/3 stanzas. Granted, his 3.81 xFIP in this span indicates he’s been lucky, but the Texas lineup has also been fortunate with an inordinately high batting average with runners in scoring position. Bello has registered at least six innings in seven of his past nine appearances, adding to his fantasy appeal.

For those in category leagues, Wednesday is an ideal chance to pad steals with the Cincinnati Reds visiting the Washington Nationals. Josiah Gray will take the ball for the home team. With 12 steals allowed, he’s in a group tied for the 10th most in MLB. Meanwhile, the Reds have swiped the second most bases in the game. Jake Fraley (31.5%), TJ Friedl (22.4%), Stuart Fairchild (0.1%), Kevin Newman (1.1%) and Will Benson (2.5%) are all capable of padding their pilfers.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 9%) vs. Hogan Harris

Matt Vierling (DET, CF — 1%) vs. Harris

Joc Pederson (SF, LF — 9%) vs. Bryce Miller

TJ Friedl (CIN, LF — 20%) at Josiah Gray

Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 30%) at Josiah Gray

Jarren Duran (BOS, CF — 6%) vs. Jon Gray

Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF — 15%) vs. Jose Berrios

Max Kepler (MIN, RF — 2%) vs. Alec Marsh

Yainer Diaz (HOU, C — 5%) vs. Chase Anderson

Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 16%) at Bryan Hoeing

Salvador Perez (KC, C — 91%) at Pablo Lopez

Josh Lowe (TB, RF — 60%) vs. Taijuan Walker