Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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Wednesday’s action gets underway early with two 12:10 p.m. ET affairs, both hosted in the Sunshine State. All told, there are eight matinees, with the remaining seven tilts under the lights. There is something for everyone on the hill, from Shohei Ohtani to several rookies, one making his MLB debut.

Let’s begin there with the Cleveland Guardians promoting Gavin Williams (2.6% rostered in ESPN leagues) for his inaugural start at home against the Oakland Athletics. Williams began the season with Double-A Akron but was quickly accelerated to Triple-A Columbus where the 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, fanning 52 in 41 innings. With Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill both out and without a clear timetable to return, this is likely more than a spot start for Williams. The fact he’ll be throwing to Bo Naylor, his catcher with the Clippers, should ease the transition. It also helps that Williams draws an Athletics lineup with the league’s lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate versus right-handers.

Another rookie tops the list of streaming candidates with southpaw Andrew Abbott (32.4% rostered) taking the ball for the Cincinnati Reds to wrap up an early-week home set with the Colorado Rockies. Abbott is one of the reasons the Reds have surged to the top of the NL Central, as he has yet to allow a run in his first three starts. That said, 12 strikeouts to nine walks in 17⅔ frames indicate a correction is impending. However, the Rockies are one of the league’s worst road teams facing lefties, having the second-lowest wOBA and sixth-highest strikeout rate under those conditions. Regression doesn’t punch a time clock and it’s agnostic toward the opponent, so this call is mostly about Abbott enjoying a favorable matchup and his suddenly productive offense in a good spot facing lefty Kyle Freeland.

While hitting streaks have been shown to be nonpredictive, there is credible research demonstrating pitchers on a roll have a better than 50% chance of continuing to throw well. There is obviously still some risk, but based on that, Garrett Whitlock (13.9%) deserves consideration for Wednesday night’s road date with the Minnesota Twins. The Boston Red Sox have turned to James Paxton and four youngsters in their rotation, with Whitlock coming through with wins in his last two outings, over which he fanned 13 while issuing only two free passes in 13⅓ innings. Adding to Whitlock’s appeal is that the Twins’ 27.1% strikeout mark is the highest in the league with a right-hander on the hill.

Perhaps the most difficult decision on the slate is Michael Kopech (48.9%) and the Chicago White Sox hosting the Texas Rangers and the league’s highest-scoring offense. Kopech’s team managers are deciding whether to use him, while those in just over half of ESPN leagues are contemplating whether to pick him up. The allure is a 1.77 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 48 punchouts over his last 35⅔ innings, spanning six starts. The cause for concern is that he walked six Seattle Mariners in 4⅓ innings in his last outing. Perhaps this combination renders Kopech a better DFS or strikeout prop play than traditional fantasy starter, but considering how dominating Kopech was prior to his last effort, using him in defensible in all formats.

Matt McLain (26.6%) remains one of the most underappreciated batters in the league. He’s averaging a solid 2.5 fantasy points per game, along with contributing across all categories in rotisserie scoring. McLain and fellow Reds righty swingers Nick Senzel (2.7%) and Tyler Stephenson (35.7%) are all in a great spot facing Freeland.

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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 18%) at Trevor Williams

Kevin Newman (CIN, 2B — 1%) vs. Freeland

Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B — 26%) at T. Williams

Andrew McCutchen (PIT, LF — 25%) vs. Kyle Hendricks

Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 45%) vs. Paul Blackburn

Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF — 49%) at Rich Hill

Yainer Diaz (HOU, C — 1%) vs. Tylor Megill

Zach McKinstry (DET, 3B — 5%) vs. Brady Singer

Joc Pederson (SF, LF — 9%) vs. Yu Darvish

Josh Lowe (TB, RF — 70%) vs. Tyler Wells

DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 3B — 51%) vs. Luis Castillo

Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 74%) at Aaron Nola