Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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Wednesday’s action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET with a pair of AL Central teams hosting interleague contests, followed shortly with the St. Louis Cardinals entertaining the San Francisco Giants. There is plenty of fantasy interest in the early games, with a couple of starting pitchers clearing the streaming bar.

At times, Detroit Tigers starter Michael Lorenzen is a candidate to spot start, but this is not one with the tough Atlanta Braves visiting Comerica Park. On the other hand, rookie AJ Smith-Shawver (15.2% rostered in ESPN leagues) is in play against a tame Tigers lineup averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB. Smith-Shawver hasn’t dazzled in his short major league career, but the 20-year-old righthander has exhibited strikeout potential, and the Tigers fan at a generous 24.4% clip facing right-handers.

The other early matinee features Bailey Ober (33.8% rostered) and the Minnesota Twins welcoming the Milwaukee Brewers to Target Field. Ober is an example of a hurler who may have been stashed on more rosters last season when there were two more active pitching spots. Ober has compiled four quality starts in nine outings, and he missed two more by one out. He’s not dominant, but 47 strikeouts in 51⅔ innings is palatable. Most important, Ober has good command, as evidenced by low walk and home run totals. The Brewers’ lineup versus righties sports the 11th-lowest wOBA while fanning at 24.2% clip.

The slate’s top-ranked streaming option could be making his final start before heading back to the minors. Eury Perez (33.9%) is probably the odd man out when Trevor Rogers returns to the Miami Marlins rotation, probably around this time next week. Perez has comported himself well on the hill, fanning 30 in his inaugural 30 frames, albeit with a slightly high 13 walks. On Wednesday, the rookie is in a good spot to pad his strikeout total with a road date in T-Mobile Park where the Seattle Mariners whiff a quarter of the time they step in the box against right-handers.

Dairon Blanco‘s (.4%) promotion didn’t come with anywhere near the buzz of Elly De La Cruz or Jordan Walker, but in leagues where stolen bases are important, Blanco is worth tracking. The Kansas City Royals’ 30-year-old outfielder swiped 47 bases in 53 attempts in only 48 games for Triple-A Omaha. It remains to be seen how much the right-handed batter will play, but neither Edward Olivares nor Drew Waters has done much to force their way into the Royals’ lineup.

Coco Montes is another recent under the radar call-up worth tracking. Montes will likely play second base for the Colorado Rockies against southpaw pitching, but he has a chance to be more than a weak-side platoon player, with only Harold Castro in the way. The Rockies are on the road this week, but it’s worth monitoring Montes’ playing time for when they return to Coors Field.

Here’s a six-pack of right-handed batters enjoying the platoon edge on Wednesday night. Going this route often results in using a player removed from the game for a pinch hitter, but all six are regulars. Adam Duvall (21.3%) and Connor Wong (25.3%) draw Austin Gomber in Fenway Park. Ke’Bryan Hayes (50.9%) and Andrew McCutchen (0.9%) face Drew Smyly in Wrigley Field. Matt McLain (27.4%) has a road date with Daniel Lynch, while Zach Neto (2.7%) fasces Andrew Heaney in Arlington, Texas.

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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Bullpen usage watch for WednesdayBy Todd Zola

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Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Max Kepler (MIN, RF — 2%) vs. Colin Rea

Enrique Hernandez (BOS, CF — 8%) vs. Gomber

Rob Refsnyder (BOS, RF — 0%) vs. Gomber

Alex Kirilloff (MIN, LF — 6%) vs. Colin Rea

Marcell Ozuna (ATL, LF — 13%) at Lorenzen

Kevin Newman (CIN, 2B — 1%) at Daniel Lynch

Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 35%) at Garrett Whitlock

Jurickson Profar (COL, LF — 11%) at Whitlock

Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B — 25%) vs. Anthony DeSclafani

Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C — 51%) at Framber Valdez

DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 3B — 55%) at Justin Verlander

Jorge Soler (MIA, LF — 55%) at Luis Castillo