Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Wednesday’s schedule begins at 12:20 PM ET in Truist Park with Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves hosting Josiah Gray and the Washington Nationals. Gray has fanned an impressive 147 hitters in 136 2/3 innings but he’s walked 63 while also administering a league high 37 homers. In fact, Gray has allowed a home run in 22 of his 26 starts, including in each of his last 13. Most of the Braves are universally rostered, with Vaughn Grissom (49% rostered in ESPN leagues), Eddie Rosario (40%), William Contreras (39%) and Robbie Grossman (36%) all with a chance to play in the matinee and benefit from Gray’s gopheritis.
The Milwaukee Brewers entertain the New York Mets in the other afternoon affair with the 15 remaining games under the lights.
He isn’t likely to pitch more than five innings, but the slate’s top ranked steaming option is Dustin May (51%) with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s important to note Arizona lineup is no longer a layup for righthanded pitchers, though May is in good shape coming off five hitless frames in San Francisco.
The next best spot starters square off with Jesus Luzardo (33%) and the Miami Marlins hosting Drew Smyly (12%) and the Chicago Cubs. Both southpaws are enjoying solid second halves with Luzardo getting the slight home field advantage nod.
Bailey Ober (40%) populated many sleeper lists back in March, but a groin injury put him on the shelf on June 1. Ober returned last week, tossing five scoreless stanzas in Cleveland, limiting the Guardians to one hit while fanning five and walking just one. He’s in a good spot to continue to salvage his season with a road start in Kansas City.
Dane Dunning (6%), Tucker Davidson (1%) and Jordan Lyles (9%) are risker streaming options.
Turning to batters, Wednesday’s six-pack of sticks features a duo of teammates in favorable scenarios along with a pair of promising rookies. Tigers lefthanders Riley Greene (14%) and Kerry Carpenter (1%) face Baltimore’s righty Jordan Lyles where the right field fence is still reachable. The Rangers Josh Jung (8%) and Bubba Thompson (7%) enjoy the platoon bump at home with the Angels sending Tucker Davidson to the hill. The Twins Jose Miranda (35%) has been crushing the ball since the break and is slated to face the Royals improving, but still raw Daniel Lynch. Triston Casas (3%) wraps up the hitters with the Red Sox facing Chase Anderson for an interleague affair in the Great American Ballpark.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Tommy Pham (BOS, LF — 50%) at Chase Anderson
TJ Friedl (CIN, CF — 9%) vs. Connor Seabold
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 7%) vs. Seabold
Christian Arroyo (BOS, 2B — 2%) at Anderson
Jose Miranda (MIN, 3B — 35%) at Daniel Lynch
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B — 10%) vs. Bailey Ober
Kyle Farmer (CIN, SS — 28%) vs. Seabold
Rob Refsnyder (BOS, CF — 0%) at Anderson
Donovan Solano (CIN, 2B — 1%) vs. Seabold
Elvis Andrus (CHW, SS — 38%) vs. Triston McKenzie
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 50%) at Blake Snell
Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B — 67%) at Luis Severino
Christian Vazquez (HOU, C — 54%) at Corey Kluber
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 88%) at Jesus Luzardo
Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B — 80%) at Wheeler
Trey Mancini (HOU, 1B — 81%) at Kluber
Yasmani Grandal (CHW, C — 53%) vs. Triston McKenzie
Franmil Reyes (CHC, DH — 55%) at Luzardo
Daulton Varsho (ARI, C — 96%) at Dustin May
Josh Rojas (ARI, SS — 67%) at May