Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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The dearth of runs is one of the early stories of the 2022 campaign. Through Monday’s games, the league ERA was 3.92, down from 4.13 at a similar point last season. The main culprit is homers as the average fly-ball distance is five feet shorter than it was in 2021. Last season’s average exit velocity on fly balls was 92.8 mph through around 300 games, compared to a slightly lower 92.4 mph this season. Weather could be a factor (colder temperatures and wind), but there have been concerns that MLB has again deadened the baseball. The takeaway for traditional fantasy is to stream pitching, before scoring increases. In DFS, being overly reliant on HR hitters could prove risky. Those betting on baseball need to find the edges where the lines and props are slow in catching up with this early-season landscape.
Speaking of weather, early forecasts are favorable across the country, with only Kansas City being a concern — scattered thunderstorms are a potential issue there. Using batters in games of this nature is risky, especially in daily fantasy leagues. After striking out in each of his first seven games (10 times in total), Miguel Sano hasn’t fanned at all in his last three contests, portending a breakout. Sano is a nice DFS play with the platoon edge on Royals southpaw Daniel Lynch.
With Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger both still sidelined, MacKenzie Gore (37% rostered in ESPN leagues) gets another start. In his debut, the rookie right-hander held his own against a tough Atlanta Braves lineup, holding them to just two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings, issuing three hits and two walks with three strikeouts. Next up is a struggling Reds lineup in Petco Park. Gore is one of the top streaming options on the slate.
Dane Dunning (3%) isn’t off to a great start, but he’s pitched a bit better than his 5.19 ERA suggests. Dunning has been snakebit by a .391 BABIP, but has also hurt himself with a high 9.8% walk rate. On the other hand, the second year right-hander has fanned 11 across 8 2/3 innings. On Wednesday, Dunning will take the hill in T-Mobile Park against a Mariners offense with a below-average wOBA. He’s best restricted to deep leagues, but if you need a streamer, Dunning is in play. Also in the streaming mix is Daulton Jefferies (2%), at home and backed by a surprisingly productive Oakland Athletics offense against Jordan Lyles and the Orioles.
Tony Gonsolin’s 1.29 ERA looks shiny, but his 1.71 WHIP tells a different story. While the chalk DFS plays will be backing the Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies in Coors Field (where the weather has been surprisingly warm), consider instead Braves hitters on the road against Gonsolin and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson and Eddie Rosario will be cheaper than the Coors batters, freeing up budget for better pitching.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Didi Gregorius (PHI, SS — 6%) at German Marquez
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 23%) at Marcus Stroman
Harold Ramirez (TB, LF — 0%) at Stroman
Manuel Margot (TB, RF — 5%) at Stroman
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 45%) vs. Mitch Keller
Alec Bohm (PHI, 3B — 6%) at Marquez
Jesus Sanchez (MIA, RF — 39%) vs. Miles Mikolas
Cesar Hernandez (WSH, 2B — 9%) vs. Zach Davies
Austin Nola (SD, C — 14%) vs. Vladimir Gutierrez
Jesus Aguilar (MIA, 1B — 39%) vs. Mikolas
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 81%) vs. Carlos Rodon
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B — 71%) vs. Rodon
Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 63%) vs. Dane Dunning
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 78%) vs. Luis Severino
Joey Gallo (NYY, LF — 79%) at Eduardo Rodriguez
Pete Alonso (NYM, 1B — 100%) vs. Rodon
Jeimer Candelario (DET, 3B — 65%) vs. Severino
Starling Marte (NYM, CF — 97%) vs. Rodon
Francisco Lindor (NYM, SS — 99%) vs. Rodon