Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Wednesday’s slate features a six-pack of afternoon affairs, beginning at 12:35 PM ET in the Steel City with the Atlanta Braves visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates. Mitch Keller will start for the home team. Keller began July with a 2.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over four starts, fanning 25 with only three walks in those 25 innings. However, Keller has struggled since, including his last start on August 16 when he was lifted after two frames with shoulder fatigue. The club hopes the extra rest helps Keller, but he’s a big risk, and the Pirates bullpen has recorded the fourth highest ERA in the league. As such, Kyle Wright and the Braves line up for a productive afternoon. Most of the Braves lineup is likely unavailable for fantasy purposes, but Vaughn Grissom (46% rostered in ESPN leagues), Eddie Rosario (42%), Robbie Grossman (35%) and William Contreras (33%) could be accessible in 10 and 12 team formats.
The day is highlighted with four excellent streaming matchups, starting with the day’s fifth highest ranked pitcher as George Kirby (38%) and the Seattle Mariners entertain the Washington Nationals in an interleague tilt. Kirby’s teammate Julio Rodriguez will attract more rookie of the year attention, but in a different year, Kirby would merit consideration. His 3.47 ERA is supported by a 3.41 xFIP and 3.29 SIERA. Kirby’s 20.9% K-BB% ranks 13th among pitchers with at least 90 innings. On Wednesday, he faces a Nationals offense ranking in the bottom third of the league.
Jesus Luzardo (31%) and Cole Irvin (33%) square off in Oakland. Both land in the top half of the slate’s pitching rankings. Luzardo returns to face his old team. The lefty has posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in four August starts, punching out 24 in 23 1/3 stanzas. Irvin is a sneaky option for points leagues since he’s been pitching deep into games. Over his last ten outings, Irvin as compiled at least six frames in each, working seven frames three times and eight innings twice. Both Luzardo and Irvin face weak lineups in what should be a low scoring affair.
Let’s take a small liberty with the fourth and include Brady Singer (51%) despite his rostership finally eclipsing the midway mark. Singer is enjoying a breakout campaign with underlying metrics suggesting he won’t be a one hit wonder. His 3.27 ERA is in tune with a 3.36 ERA and 3.40 SIERA. Since the break, he’s recorded a 30% strikeout rate, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t finish the season on a high note. On Wednesday, Singer has a home date with a below average Arizona Diamondbacks lineup.
With the Yankees and Mets enjoying a rare idle Wednesday, fantasy offenses may have a hole or two. Coors Field will be a popular place to look for help with the Texas Rangers visiting the Colorado Rockies. Nathaniel Lowe (59%), Jonah Heim (51%), Leody Taveras (10%), Kole Calhoun (4%), Brad Miller (2%) and Ezequiel Duran (1%) all get a platoon bump over Jose Urena while Randal Grichuk (52%), Connor Joe (34%), Jose Iglesias (21%), Elias Diaz (5%), Elehuris Montero (1%) and Wynton Bernard (<1%) will have the platoon edge on Martin Perez. Other hitters in a favorable scenario include Joc Pederson (50%), Jose Miranda (41%), Nolan Gorman (15%) and Lars Nootbaar (11%).
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 20%) at Spenser Watkins
Kole Calhoun (TEX, RF — 4%) at Jose Urena
Brad Miller (TEX, 1B — 2%) at Urena
Leody Taveras (TEX, CF — 10%) at Urena
Jose Iglesias (COL, SS — 22%) vs. Martin Perez
Harold Ramirez (TB, LF — 15%) vs. Mike Mayers
Manuel Margot (TB, RF — 11%) vs. Mayers
Elias Diaz (COL, C — 5%) vs. Perez
Elehuris Montero (COL, 3B — 2%) vs. Perez
Vaughn Grissom (ATL, SS — 44%) at Mitch Keller
Jared Walsh (LAA, 1B — 66%) at Shane McClanahan
Kolten Wong (MIL, 2B — 62%) at Andrew Heaney
Christian Yelich (MIL, LF — 97%) at Heaney
Taylor Ward (LAA, RF — 74%) at McClanahan
Max Kepler (MIN, RF — 60%) at Framber Valdez
Luis Urias (MIL, 3B — 50%) at Heaney
Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B — 70%) at Heaney
Mike Trout (LAA, CF — 100%) at McClanahan
Nelson Cruz (WSH, DH — 60%) at George Kirby
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C — 67%) at Kirby
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.