Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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It doesn’t matter if it’s April or August, if it’s Wednesday, matinees are on the MLB docket. Action begins in Citi Field between two teams going in opposite directions as Taijuan Walker and the New York Mets entertain T.J. Zeuch and the Cincinnati Reds. To be fair, the Red upgraded their farm system after dealing Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle. The plan was to use the rest of the season to have youngsters Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene learn on the job, but Greene is out indefinitely with a shoulder issue, hence adding Zeuch to the rotation. Zeuch has been pitching for Triple-A Louisville, fanning 12 over seven innings in his last start, but the Mets should still be able to have a productive afternoon with newly acquired Tyler Naquin (9% rostered in ESPN leagues) and Daniel Vogelbach (6%) both in play as hitting streamers.
Wednesday features a treasure trove of pitchers to stream. Baseball is a game featuring symmetry with threes and nines, so let’s discuss nine sport starters, three at a time. Patrick Sandoval (51%), Josiah Gray (32%) and Aaron Civale (34%) are listed highest in the rankings. Sandoval is on the road in Oakland, facing the offense with the third lowest wOBA when a southpaw is on the hill. Gray has home run issues, but he faces the Cubs who sport one of the least powerful offenses in the league. Civale will be making his first start in almost two months, but it will come in Detroit against the league’s worth offense facing righthanders.
Next up are Jeffrey Springs (30%), Justin Steele (8%) and Madison Bumgarner (16%). Springs has a tough matchup in Milwaukee, but he’s posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 69 punch outs to only 13 walks in 66 1/3 innings since becoming a starter. Steele has fanned an impressive 44 hitters over his prior 36 2/3 frames, with a chance to add to that total when the Cubs host a depleted Nationals lineup. Bumgarner draws a Pirates club toting the fourth lowest wOBA and second highest strikeout rate against lefties to the desert.
The final trio is Paul Blackburn (39%), Mitch Keller (6%) and Kris Bubic (5%). Blackburn’s lack of dominance makes him risky, as evidenced by surrendering four homers to the Angels in his last outing, However, the rematch is at home where Blackburn should record a better effort. Keller has six straight outings where he’s thrown at least six innings, the last five registering as quality starts. He’s in a favorable spot to extend the streak on the road against the Diamondbacks. Finally, Bubic faces the White Sox at home, but he’s also on a quality start streak, all against the AL East (Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees).
Let’s finish with a six-pack of hitters in a favorable spot to fortify a fantasy offense. Trent Grisham (50%) has been hitting the ball hard since the break and is due to go on a roll. On Wednesday, he’ll enjoy the platoon bump on Jakob Junis. Paul DeJong (3%) has hit well since his recall and how faces Kyle Freeland with the platoon edge in Coors Field, where DeJong’s flyball tendencies should thrive. Peyton Burdick (1%) has the on base skills and speed to take advantage of facing Noah Syndergaard. Baltimore’s Terrin Vavra (1%) is playing against all righthanders. On Wednesday, he’ll face the Blue Jays inconsistent Jose Berrios in what has surprisingly become an important AL East matchup between wild card contenders. The Diamondbacks Jake McCarthy (1%) and Kansas City’s Michael Massey (1%) both benefit from the platoon bump on Mitch Keller and Johnny Cueto, respectively.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Nolan Gorman (STL, 2B — 16%) at Kyle Freeland
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE, RF — 2%) at Drew Hutchison
Josh Rojas (ARI, SS — 50%) vs. Mitch Keller
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 49%) vs. Jose Quintana
Alek Thomas (ARI, CF — 9%) vs. Keller
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 18%) at Kris Bubic
Elias Diaz (COL, C — 5%) vs. Quintana
Jose Iglesias (COL, SS — 15%) vs. Quintana
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 53%) at Justin Verlander
Matt Carpenter (NYY, 2B — 65%) at Robbie Ray
Jonah Heim (TEX, C — 53%) at Verlander
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 85%) at Verlander
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 73%) vs. Nestor Cortes
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 55%) at Sean Manaea
Andrew Benintendi (NYY, LF — 91%) at Ray
Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 62%) vs. Sonny Gray
Jared Walsh (LAA, 1B — 72%) at Paul Blackburn
Jean Segura (PHI, 2B — 68%) vs. Sandy Alcantara