Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Wednesday’s 14-game slate gets an early start with a 12:35 PM ET start in Citizens Bank Park where Kyle Gibson and the Phillies will host Charlie Morton and the Braves. The righty Morton is pitching better after a rough start, but he’s still surrendering homers, so lefty swingers Darick Hall (4% rostered in ESPN leagues) and Bryson Stott (3%) are in play as hitters to stream, as is righthanded Alec Bohm who tattooed four balls over 100 mph in Sunday and Monday’s action. Eddie Rosario (44%) enjoys the platoon edge on Gibson so he’s also an option to fortify your hitting.
The Cubs and Pirates have a rare off day. The St. Lous Cardinals are in action, but they’ll be without two of their key hitters with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado unable to cross the border for the short two-game set in the Rogers Centre. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman benefits from the likely addition of Cory Spangenberg and Corey Dickerson to the visitor’s lineup. With 36 punchouts over his prior 26 frames, plus facing a weakened lineup, Gausman will likely be a chalky, but still solid DFS choice, as well as an intriguing choice to beat his strikeout prop.
The highest ranked pitching streamer for Wednesday is Seattle’s Marco Gonzales at home against Texas. However, he carries some risk as the Rangers hit southpaws well, especially in terms of homers. Gonzales is usually stingy in that department, but he yielded three long balls to the Astros in his last outing. Gonzales will be opposed by Jon Gray, who has posted a stellar 1.81 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with 58 strikeouts to only 10 walks over his previous 49 2/3 frames. If you trust Gonzales to keep the Rangers in check, this should be a low-scoring affair, ripe for hitting the under.
Braxton Garrett (17%), Brad Keller (8%) and Janson Junk (1%) also register as spot starters. Miami Marlins righty Garrett will incur a big park downgrade toiling in Great American Ballpark, but the Reds offense isn’t daunting, and they fan 24% of the time while Garrett is coming off two quality starts featuring 18 whiffs over those dozen stanzas. Keller and the Royals have a home date with an Angels lineup sporting the leagues worst wOBA and a bloated 32% strikeout rate in July when facing righthanders. Junk is being summoned to square off with Keller. The Angels righty hasn’t pitched since the break, but he fanned 14 in his last two starts spanning 11 innings for Triple-A Salt Lake.
The White Sox visit the Rockies with Lucas Giolito taking the ball for the visitors. With his struggles this season, Giolito should be reserved. Bats from both sides are in play, with the White Six Gavin Sheets (2%) carrying the most allure among the low-rostered options. Other hitters in a favorable scenario on Wednesday include the Royals MJ Melendez (12%) and Vinnie Pasquantino (8%) along with Houston’s Jeremy Pena (58%) and Jake Meyers (1%).
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 49%) vs. Chris Archer
Elias Diaz (COL, C — 6%) vs. Lucas Giolito
Hunter Dozier (KC, RF — 18%) vs. Janson Junk
Steven Kwan (CLE, CF — 45%) at Nathan Eovaldi
Gavin Sheets (CHW, DH — 2%) at Antonio Senzatela
Jarren Duran (BOS, CF — 8%) vs. Cal Quantrill
Kyle Farmer (CIN, SS — 30%) vs. Braxton Garrett
Garrett Hampson (COL, CF — 1%) vs. Giolito
Donovan Solano (CIN, 2B — 0%) vs. Garrett
Matt Carpenter (NYY, 2B — 57%) at David Peterson
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 70%) vs. Cristian Javier
Eric Hosmer (SD, 1B — 50%) at Tarik Skubal
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 61%) at Zac Gallen
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 57%) at Kevin Gausman
Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF — 91%) vs. Patrick Corbin
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 63%) vs. Corbin
Eugenio Suarez (SEA, 3B — 61%) vs. Jon Gray
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 74%) vs. Gray
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 64%) vs. Domingo German