Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Derek Carty
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It’s Day 6 of the MLB season, which means we get a mix of aces who pitched on the short Opening Day slate taking their second turn along with some No. 5 starters getting their first opportunity, but it’s mostly the latter. As we’ve seen, with the shortened spring, pitchers are not going as deep as they normally would in their first outings of the year, especially guys that got a late start. Stay far away from Jordan Hicks, for instance, who will be limited to just 45 pitches today.
The Pirates/Cubs game gives us two great streamers as well. While the Cubs may have some residual name value, they are one of the league’s weaker squads. (Obviously, so are the Pirates.) Plus, this game takes place in PNC Park, giving both pitchers a favorable park shift. Jose Quintana (rostered in 1% of ESPN leagues) and Drew Smyly (1% rostered) are nearly universally available and both in great matchups.
The Texas Rangers made the interesting (and fun!) decision to leave their roof open to 88-degree weather during their home opener. While this isn’t quite the launching pad that the old Globe Life used to be, a continuance of this trend could make it lean more that way. It won’t be as hot on Tuesday, but it’s still the hottest game on the slate at nearly 80 degrees, 70% humidity, and 18-mph winds to left field (also the strongest of the day). The Rangers actually project to score the most runs on the slate, according to THE BAT X.
There may be a prop-betting opportunity on the Orioles game today. The fences at Camden Yards were raised and moved back (a lot) over the winter, projecting to turn an elite hitters’ park into a neutral one. For fantasy, this hurts Orioles hitters, but from a betting perspective, there is opportunity. Surprisingly, there were some very favorable over odds on most of the HR props from this game yesterday, according to THE BAT X, suggesting this market has overcorrected for the fences. Since the sharper game-level Over/Under market was aligned with THE BAT X, we have plenty of reason to believe it’s the prop lines which are off. Brewers bats Andrew McCutchen (46%) and Rowdy Tellez (3%) are most likely to out-do the power expectations.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Mitch Garver (TEX, C — 31%) vs. Chad Kuhl
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 46%) at Dean Kremer
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B — 1%) vs. Drew Smyly
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 46%) vs. Kuhl
Andy Ibanez (TEX, 2B — 0%) vs. Kuhl
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 43%) vs. Matt Brash
Jesus Aguilar (MIA, 1B — 49%) at Patrick Sandoval
Yoshi Tsutsugo (PIT, 1B — 3%) vs. Smyly
Nick Solak (TEX, 2B — 1%) vs. Kuhl
Steven Kwan (CLE, CF — 2%) at Tyler Mahle
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS — 94%) at Jordan Hicks
Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 86%) vs. Shane Bieber
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 78%) at Zack Wheeler
Mark Canha (NYM, LF — 77%) at Wheeler
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 60%) at Jose Quintana
Whit Merrifield (KC, 2B — 99%) at Hicks
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2B — 70%) at Sandoval
Carlos Santana (KC, 1B — 66%) at Hicks
Salvador Perez (KC, C — 100%) at Hicks
Tommy Edman (STL, 2B — 93%) vs. Brady Singer