Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Derek Carty
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• MLB Depth Charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
The top streaming option of the day is Zach Eflin (9% rostered in ESPN leagues), who is a criminally underrated talent in a strong matchup. The Rockies are often one of the most strikeout-heavy lineups on any given day, especially on the road away from the strikeout-suppressing nature of Coors Field. He’s actually better than aces such as Kevin Gausman and Joe Musgrove today.
If you’re looking for another streaming option, Patrick Sandoval (50% rostered) and Chris Paddack (8%) are your best choices. Sandoval faces a weak Cleveland offense taking a park hit and has shown great promise this season. The narrative around Paddack is that he’s a bad pitcher, but that’s simply not true. He’s had a run of really bad luck, but his peripherals are solid and there will be plenty of opportunities to deploy him in good spots going forward. Against a weak Tigers offense in 45-degree weather is absolutely one of those spots.
THE BAT X projects just two teams to score more than five runs today: the Dodgers and Yankees. The Dodgers face pitch-to-contact Zach Davies with a chance for open-roof 90-plus-degree Arizona heat, and while most of the team is near universally rostered, Gavin Lux (77%) and any non-regular starters who wind up in the lineup might be available.
The Yankees are more interesting, as Joey Gallo (71%), Gleyber Torres (69%) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (12%) could all be options for you. There’s been so much Gallo hate lately, but this is who he is as a player: a high-variance, high-HR, high-K hitter. His barrel% is 90th percentile. His maximum exit velocity is 93rd percentile. His exit velocity on flyballs is 99th percentile. He’s fine. The power explosion is coming.
Jorge Lopez is tied for the second-most saves in baseball, but he’s rostered in just 16% of ESPN leagues. People generally hate closers on bad teams because they “don’t win games,” but bad teams will still actually win 60 or 70 of them. Plus, the ones they do win are likely to be close games because they’re bad. In his first year as a full-time reliever, Lopez is throwing his fastball 98 mph! The ratios may wind up being just fine here too.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 36%) vs. Daniel Lynch
Austin Nola (SD, C — 27%) at Reiver Sanmartin
David Peralta (ARI, LF — 15%) vs. Tony Gonsolin
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 44%) at Mitch Keller
Aaron Hicks (NYY, CF — 8%) vs. Jordan Lyles
Andrew Vaughn (CHW, LF — 50%) vs. Lynch
Brandon Nimmo (NYM, CF — 40%) at Jordan Hicks
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 43%) at Taylor Hearn
Mitch Garver (TEX, C — 39%) vs. Jake Odorizzi
Wilmer Flores (SF, 3B — 17%) vs. Daulton Jefferies
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 78%) at Carlos Rodon
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 66%) at Max Fried
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B — 81%) at Luis Severino
Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 55%) at Severino
Owen Miller (CLE, 2B — 69%) at Sandoval
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 76%) vs. Chris Bassitt
Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 59%) at Josh Fleming
Trey Mancini (BAL, 1B — 69%) at Severino
Jarred Kelenic (SEA, CF — 53%) at Fleming
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 78%) at Paddack