Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Derek Carty
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We’re fully into the third time through the rotation for most teams, and Tuesday’s slate is loaded with aces. Once you get past the top six or seven, however, you get some widely available pitchers in strong spots. Cole Irvin (6% rostered in ESPN leagues) is the cream of the crop, facing a below-average Baltimore Orioles offense that is taking a big park hit going into Oakland.
We may be witnessing a post-hype breakout for Jesus Luzardo (46.2% rostered), whose fastball velocity is up 2 full mph this year to 97.5. He struck out a whopping 12 batters in his first start, and he gets a solid matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals at home in Miami today.
After Monday’s rainout, the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks will take part in 2022’s first double-header on Tuesday. That means a chance for double-volume for any hitters you stream who end up playing in both games. The most likely (and best) candidates for this include Washington leadoff man Cesar Hernandez (9%) and Arizona cleanup hitter Christian Walker (3%). If Washinton announces a second right-hander, David Peralta (17%) would also be a great choice. Other options to consider are Maikel Franco (5%) and Lane Thomas (2%). Plus, with seven-inning double-headers now a thing of the past, we’ll get full games out of these guys. Also now playing two will be the Mets and Giants, but the presence of Max Scherzer on the mound for New York and Alex Cobb for San Francisco makes us steer clear a bit.
Home runs are wayyyyyyyy down this year. I tweeted yesterday that, even accounting for cold early season weather, this is still the lowest level we’ve seen in at least five years. As a result, THE BAT X is projecting just three non-Coors teams to score more than five runs today. Coors is the clear best spot to look for offense — one, because it’s Coors and two, being that it’s one of only four games over 65 degrees (and the hottest at 75). Connor Joe (59%), Randal Grichuk (58%), Brendan Rodgers (47%), Alec Bohm (6%) and Bryson Stott (6%) make for good targets.
The remaining five-plus run teams are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers (with Houston just missing the cut). The Dodgers could be a sneaky DFS stack, given that they face a great pitcher in Max Fried and may go overlooked. However, they have so much talent and are in one of the better weather spots. Temperatures for most games today should be in the 40s and 50s, but the Dodgers get close to 70-degree weather. Gavin Lux (73%) is the most likely to be available as a streamer in your season-long leagues.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Didi Gregorius (PHI, SS — 5%) at Kyle Freeland
Johan Camargo (PHI, 1B — 0%) at Freeland
Simon Muzziotti (PHI, CF — 0%) at Freeland
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 44%) vs. JT Brubaker
Jesus Sanchez (MIA, RF — 18%) vs. Adam Wainwright
Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B — 4%) vs. Brubaker
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 51%) at Robbie Ray
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 62%) at Max Scherzer
Jeimer Candelario (DET, 3B — 68%) vs. Gerrit Cole
Robbie Grossman (DET, LF — 53%) vs. Cole
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 77%) vs. Cole
Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 66%) vs. Jon Gray
Brandon Crawford (SF, SS — 63%) at Scherzer
Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B — 83%) at Corbin Burnes
Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 89%) at Joe Musgrove