Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Derek Carty
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• MLB Depth Charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
Easily the best pitching streamer of the day is Zach Eflin (14%). He comes in as the fifth-best option of the day overall, behind nearly universally rostered aces like Gerrit Cole and Dylan Cease and ahead of Logan Webb and Max Fried. Eflin is perhaps the single most underrostered pitcher in fantasy this year. His xFIP the last three seasons: 3.23, 3.61, and 3.89. The ERA has sometimes been higher, mostly due to bad luck, but it sits at 3.76 this season and he ought to be continue being quite good the rest of the way (and should start picking up more wins as Philly’s elite, but underperforming, offense picks up). Today’s matchup against Miami is a good one, so go get him.
Another good option today is Nick Pivetta (70%) against Oakland. Oakland projects as the worst offense in baseball, and while they get a big park upgrade going into Fenway, this still represents a favorable matchup for Pivetta.
If you’ve got Shane Bieber on your team, you should strongly consider benching him today unless you’re in a very deep league. He’s going into Colorado, and while the Rockies offense is nothing special, Coors Field is a big deal. THE BAT projects Bieber for a 5.11 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 4.7 strikeouts, and a 32% chance of getting a Win. If that sounds good to you, go for it, but otherwise he should be firmly on your bench.
The Pirates and Cardinals play a doubleheader today, which creates a great opportunity for streaming hitters that will see extra volume. While there is never a guarantee anybody will play both games, the guys with the best chances appear to be Tyler O’Neill (71%), Harrison Bader (56%), Nolan Gorman (32% — only if both PIT pitchers are right-handed, but neither has been announced yet), Cal Mitchell (less than 1%), Michael Chavis (3%), and Diego Castillo (less than 1%).
Outside of the doubleheader (especially if the Cardinals guys aren’t available in your league), the best team to stream from today will be the Cleveland Guardians. THE BAT projects them as the third-best offense overall today (behind the Dodgers and Padres). They’re going into Coors Field to face Antonio Senzatela, and most of this offense is on the waiver wire in the majority of leagues. Myles Straw (50%), Josh Naylor (38%), Amed Rosario (39%), Owen Miller (52%), Steven Kwan (40%), and Andres Gimenez (36%) are all viable streaming option today. If you need a guy who is almost certainly available, Oscar Gonzalez is just 4% rostered and has been starting every day in right field.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B — 2%) at Matthew Liberatore
Brendan Donovan (STL, 3B — 10%) vs. JT Brubaker
Yadier Molina (STL, C — 12%) vs. Brubaker
Jack Suwinski (PIT, RF — 3%) at Liberatore
Luke Voit (SD, 1B — 29%) at Kyle Hendricks
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 51%) vs. Dylan Cease
Adam Frazier (SEA, 2B — 56%) vs. Joe Ryan
Eugenio Suarez (SEA, 3B — 57%) vs. Ryan
Luis Urias (MIL, 3B — 61%) at Chris Bassitt
Hunter Renfroe (MIL, RF — 74%) at Bassitt
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C — 78%) vs. Max Fried
Javier Baez (DET, SS — 68%) vs. Cease
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 66%) at Dane Dunning
Willy Adames (MIL, SS — 83%) at Bassitt
Josh Bell (WSH, 1B — 98%) vs. Fried