Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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It might be prudent to bench Luis Severino (87% rostered in ESPN leagues) in a tough home matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. That said, the 28-year-old right-hander showed some encouraging takeaways in his 2022 debut, his first start since 2019. Despite lasting only three innings against the Boston Red Sox, Severino averaged 96.1 mph on his fastball (up 1.7 mph from 2021) and topped out at 100.3 mph, fanning five batters and walking none. Some patience may be required, but there’s hope for a bounce-back season.
Connor Joe (14% rostered), who has been slotting in as the Colorado Rockies’ leadoff hitter whenever there’s a southpaw on the mound, is one of Thursday’s more intriguing streamers and DFS options with left-hander Justin Steele starting for the Chicago Cubs. Eligible at both first base and outfield, Joe has consistently produced double-digit walk rates across his professional career, and he’s already clubbed two homers and swiped a bag in five games in 2022. Elias Diaz (8%) is another interesting name if you need help at the catcher spot.
With Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn both sidelined, the pitching depth of the Chicago White Sox is being tested. As a result, they’ll be rolling out Jimmy Lambert against the Seattle Mariners on Thursday, which presents a nice stacking opportunity for Seattle’s bats. Not only do the Mariners get to square off against one of the day’s most exploitable hurlers, but they also get a big park upgrade, as Guaranteed Rate Field is significantly more homer-friendly than T-Mobile Park.
After stumbling to a 5.36 ERA across 24 starts in 2021, JT Brubaker picked up where he left off in his 2022 debut, surrendering four earned runs to the St. Louis Cardinals in just three frames. Needless to say, he’s a hurler we want to attack in Thursday’s matchup versus the Washington Nationals. Most of Washington’s big bats are already rostered, but switch-hitting leadoff man Cesar Hernandez (9%) is widely available and should have some run-scoring opportunities while setting the table for Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, and Josh Bell. Lane Thomas (2%), who offers a bit of power and speed, is another name to consider in deeper formats.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Nick Madrigal (CHC, 2B — 49%) at Kyle Freeland
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B — 1%) vs. Joan Adon
Rafael Ortega (CHC, CF — 2%) at Freeland
Garrett Hampson (COL, CF — 1%) vs. Steele
Yoshi Tsutsugo (PIT, 1B — 4%) vs. Adon
Nico Hoerner (CHC, 2B — 4%) at Freeland
Jose Iglesias (COL, SS — 2%) vs. Steele
Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B — 91%) at Severino
Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS — 89%) at Joe Musgrove
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 83%) at Brandon Woodruff
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2B — 74%) vs. Kyle Gibson
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR, LF — 92%) at Severino
Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 87%) at Walker Buehler
Tommy Edman (STL, 2B — 92%) at Woodruff
Trent Grisham (SD, CF — 77%) vs. Charlie Morton
Adam Duvall (ATL, RF — 53%) at Musgrove
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 53%) at Lambert