Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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Tylor Megill (58% rostered in ESPN leagues) returned to the Mets rotation last week after missing time with tightness in his biceps. Although he lasted only 3 1/3 innings with two earned runs allowed, he averaged 96.4 mph on his four-seamer (up a tick from his 95.7 mph season average) and topped out at 99.2 mph, giving us confidence that the arm issues are behind him. Prior to Megill’s blowup outing that led to his IL stint, he posted a 2.43 ERA over six starts with 36 Ks in 33 1/3 frames. There’s a good chance we see his rostered percentage shoot back up in the coming weeks. That could start on Thursday against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have a bottom-three offense (76 wRC+) so far in June.
Aside from a small hiccup or two, George Kirby (25%) has been awfully impressive in his first seven big league starts, posting a solid 3.65 ERA with a terrific 0.9 BB/9 rate and nearly a strikeout per inning. Just once in those seven outings did he fail to go at least five innings. While Kirby has not yet proven that he’s worth throwing out there no matter the opponent, he’s a definite start in favorable matchups, and that’s what he’s got on Thursday against the Los Angeles Angels. Since the calendar has flipped to June, the Angels are fanning at an MLB-worst 29.5% clip with the third-worst wOBA (.279) in the American League. Kirby is an easy streaming option on a shortened Thursday slate.
After striking out a career-best 12 batters against the Chicago Cubs in late May, Aaron Ashby (24%) has stumbled in his next two turns, surrendering 10 runs in 10 2/3 innings. That’s obviously frustrating, but Ashby still possesses a strong arsenal with huge strikeout potential while generating an elite number of grounders. It’s OK to take a wait-and-see approach against the New York Mets, who have been tough on lefties this season, but don’t give up on Ashby completely. This could be an arm we’re talking a lot about in the second half.
Beau Brieske is coming off the best start of his career, an outing against the Toronto Blue Jays in which he spun 5 2/3 shutout frames. That said, he’s still an arm to consider stacking Texas Rangers bats against on Thursday. The right-hander doesn’t miss bats (5.8 K/9), he has trouble keeping the ball in the park (2.3 HR/9), and his 6.41 xERA and 6.06 FIP suggest his 4.34 ERA has been luck-driven. Marcus Semien (.321/.368/.623), Adolis Garcia (.306/.370/.551), Nathaniel Lowe (.313/.327/.635) and Ezequiel Duran (.333/.351/.556) have all been raking in June and are appealing pieces as part of a Thursday stack.
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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 38%) at Chad Kuhl
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE, RF — 5%) at Kuhl
Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 39%) at Kuhl
Trent Grisham (SD, CF — 49%) at Matt Swarmer
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B — 36%) at Kuhl
Luke Voit (SD, 1B — 29%) at Swarmer
Steven Kwan (CLE, CF — 40%) at Kuhl
Myles Straw (CLE, CF — 49%) at Kuhl
Elias Diaz (COL, C — 6%) vs. Triston McKenzie
Nomar Mazara (SD, RF — 0%) at Swarmer
Eugenio Suarez (SEA, 3B — 57%) vs. Shohei Ohtani
Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 85%) vs. Ohtani
Randy Arozarena (TB, LF — 91%) at Luis Severino
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 85%) vs. Ohtani
Adam Frazier (SEA, 2B — 55%) vs. Ohtani
Luis Urias (MIL, 3B — 60%) at Tylor Megill
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B — 92%) vs. Aaron Ashby
Hunter Renfroe (MIL, RF — 73%) at Megill
Willy Adames (MIL, SS — 83%) at Megill
Kolten Wong (MIL, 2B — 66%) at Megill