Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday’s MLB games

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

A mere five games grace the Thursday slate, with a clear highlight of the big league debut of Texas Rangers RHP Jack Leiter. The son of former LHP Al Leiter (Yankees, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets), and the No. 2 pick in the 2021 MLB draft out of Vanderbilt. Jack Leiter struggled in his first two minor league seasons at Double-A and Triple-A, compiling a 5-16 record with a 5.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, dampening the hopes of fantasy investors expecting an ace but wondering if the big-name prospect was close to worth it.

This season, Leiter, who turns 24 on Sunday, appeared in three games for Triple-A Round Rock, starting two, and looking more dominant than in his first two minor league seasons. Leiter struck out 28% of hitters in 2022 and 2023. This season, with his hard, rising fastball and tight curveball, he has 25 strikeouts in 14⅓ innings, for a 44% rate. That tends to get noticed, and the defending World Series champion Rangers surely did, opting to push struggling LHP Andrew Heaney back a day and giving Leiter a mid-April debut for a day game at Detroit.

Fantasy managers should always keep expectations in check for young hurlers, and Leiter, whose prospect pedigree is way down from two years ago, is no exception. He threw 66, 78 and 83 pitches in his three outings for the Express, and five of the six earned runs he permitted came via home runs, including one to Astros OF prospect Joey Loperfido, and another to recently promoted Dodgers OF Andy Pages. The Tigers are one of the lower-scoring offenses in baseball, and are up there in strikeouts, so perhaps Leiter misses a high percentage of bats, but the outing could also be quite brief.

Leiter’s time in the major leagues also may be brief, as the Rangers rely on RHPs Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Dane Dunning, along with the LHP Heaney, while free agent RHP Michael Lorenzen debuted this week. LHP Cody Bradford and his 3-0 record and 1.40 ERA went on the injured list this week for lower back soreness, likely a short-term malady, and one surely recognizes the injured starters on the mend for activation this summer in RHPs Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle.

Still, big-league debuts for big-name prospects are appointment television, and many eyes will be on Leiter, analyzing his every move. The move in fantasy is to look elsewhere for now.

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Weather permitting, Rangers-Tigers and Angels-Rays commence the day’s action at 1:10 p.m. ET, followed shortly by Guardians-Red Sox. Tampa Bay RHP Ryan Pepiot gets the highest ranking for all starting pitchers for the day, even ahead of reliable Giants RHP Logan Webb, thanks to hosting an inconsistent Angels offense. Pepiot hasn’t been so consistent himself, as his lone positive performance came in his second start, at Colorado’s feared Coors Field, when he tossed six shutout innings and fanned 11. His other two outings came at home (Rangers, Giants), and he permitted 10 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Don’t look at home/road splits yet. This is an emerging hurler in an advantageous matchup. Oh, and don’t worry about Webb. He is awesome.

The Guardians present former star RHP Carlos Carrasco his fourth start of the season, at Fenway Park, and this seems like a good opportunity to rely on Red Sox hitters. Carrasco, 37, offers a misleading 3.55 ERA, but it comes with a worrisome 1.66 WHIP, thanks to nine walks in 12 2/3 innings. The inefficient Carrasco averages barely four innings per start, and his ERA may not look fine when he starts allowing home runs. He hasn’t yet, but his fastball is down to 90.5 MPH, and it seems only a matter of time before the Guardians replace him. Carrasco is no stranger to Fenway Park, posting a 9.45 ERA over 20 innings, allowing 44 hits and 10 walks, and much of that came when Carrasco was a reliable fantasy option. Among the readily available hitters, get Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Connor Wong in lineups if you can.

Perhaps similarly, the Giants host the Diamondbacks and RHP Ryne Nelson, and there should be opportunity for offensive exploits here. Nelson is likely to lose his rotation spot to new LHP Jordan Montgomery, scheduled to debut on Friday against Blake Snell, who boasts a 5.27 ERA and 1.61 WHIP through three starts, though his most recent outing went well (6 innings, 1 run). Six current Giants have faced Nelson, and, albeit in small samples, five of them have hit .333 or greater. Michael Conforto and Wilmer Flores have homered. Nelson is oddly permitting a .364 batting average to right-handed hitters, which is fueled by wild, early BABIP but also an indicator any Giants hitter comes recommended, including the readily available Thairo Estrada, Flores, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Mike Yastrzemski among them.

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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

To get the latest information on each team’s bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Jarren Duran (BOS, CF — 40%) vs. Carlos Carrasco

Matt Chapman (SF, 3B — 41%) vs. Ryne Nelson

Bo Naylor (CLE, C — 8%) at Cooper Criswell

Riley Greene (DET, CF — 29%) vs. Jack Leiter

Mark Canha (DET, LF — 10%) vs. Leiter

Harold Ramirez (TB, DH — 1%) vs. Griffin Canning

Wilyer Abreu (BOS, CF — 1%) vs. Carrasco

LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, 1B — 4%) vs. Nelson

Richie Palacios (TB, LF — 0%) vs. Canning

Josh Bell (MIA, 1B — 34%) at Jameson Taillon

Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C — 77%) at Logan Webb

Christian Walker (ARI, 1B — 94%) at Webb