Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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Jordan Hicks (rostered in 7% of ESPN leagues) has slowly been ramping up since joining the St. Louis Cardinals rotation. In his last start against the San Francisco Giants, he tossed a season-high 4⅓ innings, throwing 68 pitches. The control (5.4 BB/9) has been lacking, but Hicks is averaging 99 mph on his sinker and is getting tons of whiffs (57.7%) with his slider, so it’s easy to see the appeal here. The hope is that the flame-throwing righty can go at least five frames in Thursday’s outing against a Baltimore Orioles lineup that’s been below-average offensively, striking out 24.6% of the time with a bottom-five ISO (.113).
Josh Winder (21%) has made a strong impression since entering the starting rotation, spinning 12 scoreless innings while fanning 15 and handing out only one free pass. The 25-year-old features a four-pitch mix but relies heavily on his four-seamer and a swing-and-miss slider, which has helped him generate a 12.9% swinging-strike rate (top-10 in the American League). You’ll want to be careful using Winder on Thursday against the Houston Astros, but you may want to go ahead and stash him in deeper formats.
It’s been a rough go for Joan Adon, who has been blasted for a 6.99 ERA over six starts. Things won’t get any easier for the 23-year-old on Thursday, when he matches up with the New York Mets, the second-best offense (125 wRC+) against right-handed pitching. While the Mets bats make for an intriguing DFS stack, Dominic Smith (2%) is an under-the-radar bat to consider. He’s hitting just .204/.290/.259 on the season, but his 50% hard-hit rate may portend better times ahead.
The New York Yankees have opted to promote Luis Gil for Thursday’s matchup versus the Chicago White Sox. There’s certainly some optimism surrounding the 23-year-old, who posted a 3.07 ERA and a 11.7 K/9 over six big-league starts in 2021, but it might be best to take a wait-and-see approach here. Despite a 13.2 K/9 rate at Triple-A, he owns a 6.4 walk rate and a bloated 9.53 ERA through five outings. Put the young right-hander on your watch list, but there’s little reason to trust him right now.
JT Brubaker may hold a 5.68 ERA on the year, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The right-hander has a career-best 10.7 K/9, and his 3.45 xERA suggests he’s had some misfortune and deserves better. What’s most important is that, on Thursday, Brubaker draws a tasty matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who sport an MLB-worst 77 wRC+ this season. He actually faced the Reds in his last start, too, and he delivered five innings of two-run ball with nine strikeouts. On this shortened slate, Brubaker is a worthy streaming option.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Ramon Laureano (OAK, CF — 11%) at Beau Brieske
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B — 7%) vs. Connor Overton
Ben Gamel (PIT, LF — 4%) vs. Overton
Juan Yepez (STL, 1B — 6%) vs. Keegan Akin
Brad Miller (TEX, 1B — 5%) vs. Jonathan Heasley
Alec Bohm (PHI, 3B — 41%) at Tyler Anderson
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 39%) at Brubaker
Harrison Bader (STL, CF — 26%) vs. Akin
Jose Miranda (MIN, 3B — 4%) vs. Luis Garcia
Yoshi Tsutsugo (PIT, 1B — 2%) vs. Overton
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 65%) vs. James Kaprielian
Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 83%) at Brubaker
Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 86%) vs. Cristopher Sanchez
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C — 79%) vs. Taijuan Walker
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 57%) vs. Sanchez
Jeimer Candelario (DET, 3B — 51%) vs. Kaprielian
Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 65%) at Hicks
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B — 74%) at Hicks