Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday’s MLB games
For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.
Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
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• Hitter ratings: Next 10 days• MLB depth charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
Eury Perez (26% rostered in ESPN leagues), one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, made his big-league debut on Friday against the New York Mets. While he lasted only 4⅔ innings, he struck out seven while giving up only two runs on two hits and two walks. Standing in at 6-foot-8, Perez is a large presence on the mound. His four-seamer averages 97 mph with good command, and his slider and curve are both swing-and-miss offerings. At just 20 years old, he obviously carries plenty of start-to-start risk, as any young, inexperienced pitcher would, but the upside here is immense. Although we may not see him regularly pitch deep into games, the hope is that his K potential is good enough to make up for it. Fortunately, Perez gets a soft landing spot for his second outing, as he squares off against a Washington Nationals lineup that ranks worst in the National League with a 78 wRC+ against righties.
Since joining the Cleveland Guardians’ rotation, Logan Allen (12%) has delivered a 3.43 ERA with a 10.3 K/9 rate across four starts. That strong strikeout rate matches the swing-and-miss potential he showed in the minors, where he posted a K/9 of 11.0 or higher at every stop. Allen’s 1.48 WHIP and 5.65 xERA suggest that his ERA is due for an increase, but it’s still been a strong first impression for the 24-year-old. With only six games on the docket for Thursday’s slate, Allen is a worthwhile streamer against the Chicago White Sox, who have put up a below average 94 wRC+ so far in May.
Tyler Wells (44%) has been the Baltimore Orioles’ best starter this season, putting up a 2.68 ERA and 0.72 WHIP across eight games (seven starts). While his K/9 rate sits at just 7.5, he owns a terrific 1.7 BB/9, which has helped offset the lack of swing and miss. A pitcher who allows a lot of balls in play has a much slimmer margin for error than one who misses bats, and Wells’ .145 BABIP tells us he’s been extremely fortunate. As a result, his long-term value can certainly be questioned. That said, he’s a reasonable streaming option against the Los Angeles Angels on a day when there are few quality names to choose from.
The Tampa Bay Rays’ offense has been rolling this year, leading MLB in runs scored, and the minibreakout of Taylor Walls (42%) has played a part. Through 31 games, he is batting .281/.373/.583 with seven homers, 18 RBIs, 22 runs, and seven steals while offering eligibility at three positions (SS, 2B, 3B). Despite being available in nearly 60% of ESPN leagues, Walls currently ranks as top-five third baseman, according to the Player Rater, and he ranks seventh and eighth at shortstop and second base, respectively. As is the case with many Rays batters, Walls doesn’t quite play every day, but those who play in leagues with daily moves can mix and match whenever he’s in the lineup.
The biggest mismatch on Thursday’s slate has to be the Los Angeles Dodgers taking on the St. Louis Cardinals’ Steven Matz. The southpaw holds a 5.62 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over eight starts this season, and he’s been particularly vulnerable to right-handed batters, who have pummeled him for a .403 wOBA. Miguel Vargas (26%), J.D. Martinez (61%), and Chris Taylor (7%) are all righty swingers who could do some big-time damage in this juicy matchup.
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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.
By Todd Zola
Today’s list would be longer, but with only 12 teams in action, several tired bullpens get a day to recover. One example is Camilo Doval as he pitched in his third straight game yesterday, He was flagged as someone to avoid on Wednesday, after he used a combined 39 pitches to log a save on Monday and Tuesday. He captured a save for the third consecutive day yesterday, but was clearly working on fumes. Even so, the lesson is to pay attention to whether the team has an impending travel day, since the bullpen may be pushed even with a recent high workload. It needs to be considered on a team-by-team basis, with an eye on precedence.
Ryan Helsley recorded a four-out save yesterday, throwing 24 pitches in the princess. Even though the Cardinals have been playing better lately, Helsley last pitched on Friday, so he was well-rested and could be asked for another save today, especially since Giovanny Gallegos needed 36 pitches as he threw 1 2/3 innings in yesterday’s 3-0 shutout over Corbin Burnes and the Brewers.
Jordan Romero pitched the ninth and tenth innings last night, keeping the 0-0 game intact for Danny Jansen to walk it off for Toronto with a three-run homer. Romano tossed 23 pitches, but he hadn’t pitched previously since Saturday. Like Helsley, Romano could be used on consecutive days, as he’s done it twice already this season. With holds now part of ESPN’s scoring, picking up Erik Swanson could prove fruitful since he’s well rested and could be used instead of Romano, perhaps to collect a multi-inning save or hold.
We have a new team checking in with the best chance to win over the next few days. By virtue of wrapping up a series with the Guardians before entertaining the Royals over the weekend, the White Sox bullpen is a great place to look for fantasy production. The club announced Liam Hendriks is feeling good, but he won’t be activated this weekend. Kendall Graveman has registered the White Sox last two saves, so he’s the primary target with Kenyan Middleton and Reynaldo Lopez in play for holds.
This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player’s ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher’s pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher’s total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher’s days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Jorge Soler (MIA, LF — 12%) vs. Trevor Williams
Josh Naylor (CLE, 1B — 44%) at Dylan Cease
Miguel Vargas (LAD, 1B — 26%) at Adam Wainwright
Harold Ramirez (TB, 1B — 26%) at Tylor Megill
Jake Burger (CHW, 3B — 3%) vs. Logan Allen
Garrett Cooper (MIA, 1B — 4%) vs. Williams
Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 27%) vs. Tyler Anderson
Isaac Paredes (TB, 3B — 36%) at Megill
Luis Garcia (WSH, SS — 11%) at Eury Perez
Jean Segura (MIA, 2B — 8%) vs. Williams
Josh Lowe (TB, RF — 58%) at Tylor Megill
DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 3B — 71%) at Jose Berrios
Daulton Varsho (TOR, C — 91%) vs. Nestor Cortes
Gunnar Henderson (BAL, 3B — 56%) vs. Tyler Anderson
James Outman (LAD, LF — 64%) at Adam Wainwright
Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 51%) at Dylan Cease
Jorge Mateo (BAL, SS — 68%) vs. Tyler Anderson
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B — 63%) at Dylan Cease
Starling Marte (NYM, RF — 65%) vs. Taj Bradley
Hunter Renfroe (LAA, RF — 82%) at Tyler Wells
Los Angeles Dodgers at Adam Wainwright
Tampa Bay Rays at Tylor Megill
Miami Marlins vs. Trevor Williams
PREDICTION:
THE BAT sees Berrios putting up 17.5 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.9% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the under with an expected value of $22.70.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
– According to THE BAT projection system, Rogers Centre holds the No. 21 position for walks among all ballparks in the majors.
– Jose Berrios will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters in this matchup.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
– The New York Yankees projected lineup grades out as the fourth-best on the slate.
– John Libka grades out as a Extreme Hitters Umpire and is expected to be calling pitches today.
– Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF dimensions in the league.
– The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.