Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday’s MLB games

More Teams. More Games.

Shintaro Fujinami strands a runner on third with two strikeouts in the Orioles’ extra-inning win over the Angels. (0:22)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Mike Sheets

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Thursday presents us with yet another truncated slate, this one with just six games on the docket. With so few games, we’ll have to get a little creative with some of our streaming choices, but Griffin Canning (15% rostered in ESPN leagues) is a rock-solid streamer for his home matchup versus the Cleveland Guardians. After a pair of relief appearances, Canning has looked strong in two starts, firing seven innings of one-run ball against the New York Mets and holding the Oakland Athletics to two runs in six frames, with 16 total strikeouts across the two outings. The Guardians, meanwhile, have produced very little offensively over the past month, ranking 28th in MLB with a .290 wOBA, including the fewest homers (22) in the AL.

Javier Assad (18% rostered) entered the Chicago Cubs rotation in early August, and he’s acclimated quite quickly. The right-hander has a 2.25 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP across six starts, limiting opponents to two (or fewer) earned runs in each turn. As a guy who doesn’t generate much swing-and-miss and also has merely average control, there’s certainly some regression risk here. In fact, Assad’s xERA of 4.55 is nearly two full runs higher than his actual 2.69 ERA. Even so, the Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been only league average (99 wRC+) over the past month, so it’s fine to keep rolling with Assad on this abbreviated slate.

On Thursday, veteran Adam Wainwright, who sports a ghastly 10.89 ERA over his last 10 starts, takes the hill against the Atlanta Braves, the top-scoring team in baseball. This one could get ugly, folks. While Atlanta’s big names are obviously widely rostered, Marcell Ozuna (69%), Orlando Arcia (33%), and Eddie Rosario (14%) are all still available in a lot of leagues, giving you a way to get some exposure to this prime matchup.

Josh Lowe (48%) is quietly on pace to go 20/30 this season, and he’s been on a tear of late, batting .340/.379/.577 with five dingers, 19 RBI, and six stolen bases over his last 28 games. This is a guy who can provide help in all categories, so as long as there’s a right-hander on the mound (the Tampa Bay Rays still frequently sit him against southpaws), Lowe is a quality fantasy option. He’ll enjoy the platoon advantage on Thursday, which puts him in the streaming conversation, even against a tough pitcher like Luis Castillo.

We’re obviously not going out of our way to start Braxton Garrett (29%) against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday, but with so few games on the slate, it’s not a crazy proposition. The left-hander has put up a 2.70 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over his last seven turns, which includes a quality start versus these same Dodgers two weeks ago. The risk here is clear, but if you’re an underdog in your head-to-head matchup, it might pay off to take some gambles.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Brandon Drury (LAA, 3B — 29%) vs. Cal Quantrill

Giancarlo Stanton (NYY, RF — 46%) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

Eddie Rosario (ATL, LF — 15%) vs. Adam Wainwright

Logan O’Hoppe (LAA, C — 6%) vs. Quantrill

Amed Rosario (LAD, SS — 49%) at Braxton Garrett

Luis Rengifo (LAA, 2B — 19%) vs. Quantrill

Jake Burger (MIA, 3B — 13%) vs. Ryan Pepiot

Randal Grichuk (LAA, RF — 4%) vs. Quantrill

Enrique Hernandez (LAD, CF — 7%) at Garrett

Mike Moustakas (LAA, 3B — 2%) vs. Quantrill

Tommy Edman (STL, 2B — 74%) at Max Fried

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI, LF — 50%) at Javier Assad