Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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While Thursday’s abbreviated seven-game slate (which includes a Giants/Brewers doubleheader) might be short on streaming options, Dylan Cease makes for a no-brainer DFS anchor with an extremely favorable road matchup against the Oakland A’s. Cease has been making a strong case for the AL Cy Young award with his 2.13 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 across 27 starts, and his ERA dips all the way down to 1.23 over his last 18 turns. Meanwhile, Oakland’s offense has been virtually non-existent this season, ranking bottom-three in MLB in wRC+ (85) and wOBA (.277), and ISO (.128). Fade Cease at your own risk in DFS.
On a day when quality streaming options are hard to come by, James Kaprielian (3% rostered in ESPN leagues) deserves some consideration. While his odds of picking up a win are very slim in a matchup against Cease, Kaprielian can still provide value. In his last 13 starts, the Oakland righty has surrendered more than three earned runs just once, with his lone hiccup coming against the New York Yankees. Remove that one bad start (an outing where most fantasy managers wouldn’t have started him anyway), and Kaprielian owns an impressive 2.65 ERA since June 1.
After being forced to leave his last start with tightness in his right hamstring, Sonny Gray is on track to return to the mound on Thursday against the Yankees. Normally, a matchup against the Bronx Bombers would be a rough landing spot, but the Yanks’ offense has been sputtering of late, illustrated by its 79 wRC+ over the last 30 days. I still wouldn’t call it a good matchup, as the Yankees’ bats could awaken at any time, but it could certainly be worse for Gray, who sports a 2.16 second-half ERA.
Kyle Gibson (67%) has struggled with start-to-start consistency. On one hand, he sports a 5.00 ERA dating back to June 26, which includes four starts of at least five earned runs allowed. On the other hand, Gibson has delivered quality starts in five of his last six outings. With the Marlins on tap for Thursday, we’re betting on more of the latter than the former from the Philly right-hander. Over the last month, the Marlins have been the worst offense in baseball with an MLB-worst 66 wRC+ and a .258 wOBA.
Since re-joining the Giants rotation in late July, Jakob Junis sports an ugly 5.40 ERA over eight starts. He’s been particularly vulnerable to left-handed batters, who have produced a .353 wOBA against him. This presents an enticing opportunity for Christian Yelich (97%), Rowdy Tellez (67%), Kolten Wong (66%), Jace Peterson (3%), Omar Narvaez (24%) and Garrett Mitchell (1%), all of whom will carry the platoon edge against Junis on Thursday. Better yet, some of those names will get two starts with a doubleheader on tap, making them ideal streaming options.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Jace Peterson (MIL, 2B — 2%) vs. Jakob Junis
Omar Narvaez (MIL, C — 24%) vs. Jakob Junis
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, RF — 2%) at Corbin Burnes
Keston Hiura (MIL, 1B — 3%) vs. Junis
Brandon Crawford (SF, SS — 37%) at Burnes
TJ Friedl (CIN, CF — 2%) at Adrian Sampson
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 8%) at Sampson
Tommy La Stella (SF, 2B — 1%) at Burnes
Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 36%) vs. Josiah Gray
Kyle Farmer (CIN, SS — 24%) at Sampson
Jean Segura (PHI, 2B — 75%) vs. Sandy Alcantara
Alec Bohm (PHI, 3B — 50%) vs. Alcantara
Yasmani Grandal (CHW, C — 53%) vs. Montana DuRapau
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 53%) vs. Gray
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 80%) vs. Dylan Cease
J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C — 99%) vs. Alcantara
Tommy Edman (STL, 2B — 99%) vs. Gray
Josh Donaldson (NYY, 3B — 63%) vs. Sonny Gray
Kolten Wong (MIL, 2B — 66%) vs. Jose Alvarez
Tyler O’Neill (STL, LF — 76%) vs. Gray