Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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Thursday presents us with an abbreviated eight-game slate that’s headlined by the second annual Field of Dreams game in Dyersville, Iowa. Last year’s contest featured a thrilling 9-8 affair between the Chicago White Sox and the New York Yankees that ended with a Tim Anderson walk-off homer. This year’s version, which pits the Chicago Cubs against the Cincinnati Reds — two of the worst teams in the National League – may not look too exciting on paper, but there are still some intriguing fantasy options worth exploring. Tops on the list is Reds hurler Nick Lodolo (13% rostered in ESPN leagues). The rookie left-hander, who sports a 2.16 ERA over his last three starts, has big swing-and-miss stuff that should play up well against a Cubs team that’s fanning 24% of the time versus lefties this season, putting him squarely on the streaming radar.
There may not be a more dominant pitcher right now than Dylan Cease. The Chicago White Sox right-hander has been lights out for nearly two and a half straight months, ripping off 13 straight starts with one or zero earned runs allowed. His ERA during that stretch sits at just 0.59 with 95 Ks in 76 frames. Not surprisingly, Cease has been the No. 1 starting pitcher on the ESPN Player Rater over the last month. Against a Kansas City Royals offense that’s striking out at a 24.2% clip since the All-Star break, Cease will be difficult to fade in DFS cash games on Thursday.
Edward Cabrera (18%) looked sharp in his return from the injured list last week, firing five shutout frames against the Cubs while striking out eight. After he missed nearly two months with elbow tendinitis, it was encouraging to see the young right-hander average 96.3 mph on his four-seamer, which essentially matches his season average (96.7 mph). Cabrera also notched an impressive 18 whiffs in the outing, as he generated five swings and misses with three different pitches (slider, curve, changeup). A matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday does present some risk, but the 24-year-old deserves a look regardless.
Dakota Hudson has benefited from plenty of good fortune this season. His 5.49 xERA is significantly higher than his actual ERA (4.20), and his 2.3% K-BB% is worst in baseball (min. 100 IP). With that in mind, a start at Coors Field on Thursday may not turn out so well for the Cardinals right-hander. Ryan McMahon (57%), Randall Grichuk (50%), Connor Joe (42%) and Jose Iglesias (16%) are all appealing streaming options in this appealing matchup.
While you may want to avoid Vinnie Pasquantino (5%) in Thursday’s matchup against Dylan Cease, he’s someone to monitor closely, as he could provide some value down the stretch. The 24-year-old is hitting a disappointing .237/.325/.385 in 37 games this season and has basically been a non-factor in fantasy, but there are some very encouraging things going on under the hood. In addition to showing terrific plate discipline with a 10.3% walk rate and a 15.8% K rate, he also boasts an impressive 49.1% hard-hit rate, which would rank top-20 in baseball if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. After blasting a pair of bombs in Tuesday’s doubleheader, Pasquantino might soon take off.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Tommy Pham (BOS, LF — 47%) vs. Austin Voth
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 50%) vs. Dakota Hudson
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 18%) at Zack Greinke
Paul DeJong (STL, SS — 3%) at German Marquez
Elias Diaz (COL, C — 5%) vs. Hudson
Jose Iglesias (COL, SS — 16%) vs. Hudson
Elehuris Montero (COL, 3B — 1%) vs. Hudson
Albert Pujols (STL, 1B — 3%) at Marquez
Bobby Dalbec (BOS, 1B — 8%) vs. Voth
Rougned Odor (BAL, 2B — 1%) at Josh Winckowski
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 85%) at Framber Valdez
Jonah Heim (TEX, C — 52%) at Valdez
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 53%) at Valdez
Salvador Perez (KC, C — 91%) vs. Dylan Cease
Christian Vazquez (HOU, C — 61%) vs. Cole Ragans
Yasmani Grandal (CHW, C — 57%) at Greinke
Franmil Reyes (CHC, DH — 51%) at Nick Lodolo
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 53%) vs. Ragans
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 85%) at Lodolo
Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B — 75%) at Merrill Kelly