Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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Thursday’s 13-game slate is headlined by a showdown between Corbin Burnes and Carlos Rodon. Both hurlers have been top-10 fantasy starters this season, and the duo occupies the top two pitcher spots on the Player Rater over the last 30 days, with Rodon ranking first and Burnes second. For DFS purposes, Rodon, who fired a complete game with 12 Ks against the San Diego Padres his last time out, gets the better matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew ranks 22nd in baseball with a 93 wRC+ and 23.4% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching.
Braxton Garrett (1%) doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal, so he carries some start-to-start risk because he doesn’t have a large margin for error. Then again, that risk is mitigated when you match up against the Pittsburgh Pirates, one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. In addition to an 85 wRC+ and .288 wOBA, the Bucs are fanning at a 26% clip against southpaws, putting Garrett firmly on the streaming radar for Thursday’s action.
Keegan Thompson (40%) has been on a nice roll, spinning a 1.93 ERA and 11.3 K/9 over his last five starts, which included difficult matchups against the Dodgers, Red Sox and Braves. Part of the 27-year-old’s recent success has been fueled by the recent addition of a slider, a pitch he just started implementing in late June. A home matchup against the New York Mets puts Thompson in a tough spot on Thursday, but with the way he’s been handling other top-tier offenses, he’s earned streamer consideration.
Over the last month, the Atlanta Braves’ Michael Harris has been the second-best outfielder in fantasy, according to the ESPN Player Rater. Dating back to June 8, the 21-year-old is hitting .310/.344/.569 while flashing both power (seven homers) and speed (seven steals). Yet somehow, he’s still available in 40% of ESPN leagues. This is a skill set you want to invest in, and the rookie’s matchup on Thursday against Anibal Sanchez and his 6.62 ERA is a perfect time to add his services.
While Nestor Cortes was the talk of baseball in April and May, he’s been struggling of late, posting a 5.34 ERA over his last six outings. He’s particularly had trouble with the long ball, as he’s surrendered nine homers in his last six starts after giving up just four dingers in his first 10 turns. The Cincinnati Reds offense has continued to struggle as a whole, but this looks like a sneaky opportunity to get their bats going. Brandon Drury (91%), Tyler Stephenson (81%), Jonathan India (65%), Tommy Pham (57%) and Nick Senzel (6%) all have the platoon advantage on Thursday and are worth DFS and streamer consideration.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Luke Voit (SD, 1B — 31%) at Kyle Freeland
Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 41%) vs. Elvin Rodriguez
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 45%) vs. Blake Snell
Steven Kwan (CLE, CF — 38%) vs. Rodriguez
Jorge Alfaro (SD, C — 6%) at Freeland
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 44%) vs. Kutter Crawford
Trent Grisham (SD, CF — 47%) at Freeland
Nomar Mazara (SD, RF — 1%) at Freeland
Elias Diaz (COL, C — 5%) vs. Snell
Adam Duvall (ATL, RF — 23%) at Anibal Sanchez
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 61%) vs. Corbin Burnes
Patrick Wisdom (CHC, 3B — 53%) vs. Carlos Carrasco
Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B — 62%) at Carlos Rodon
Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 81%) at Nestor Cortes
Thairo Estrada (SF, SS — 50%) vs. Burnes
Joc Pederson (SF, CF — 79%) vs. Burnes
Willy Adames (MIL, SS — 87%) at Rodon
Hunter Renfroe (MIL, RF — 65%) at Rodon
Luis Urias (MIL, 3B — 55%) at Rodon
Christian Vazquez (BOS, C — 62%) at Drew Rasmussen