Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for the Fourth of July

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Derek Carty

• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• Pitching projections: Next 10 days
• Hitter ratings: Next 10 days• MLB depth charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin

Tuesday is a great day for streaming multiple pitchers, if you have the roster room to do it. Four of the top five pitchers on the slate are all under 20% rostered in ESPN leagues and all project above the likes Shohei Ohtani, Joe Musgrove and Shane Bieber, which should tell you something about how well they project. That list starts with J.P. France (11% rostered), who gets to face a terrible (and often strikeout-heavy) Rockies lineup away from Coors Field. Emmet Sheehan (20%) gets a below-average Pirates squad at home and has some of the best pitching weather of the day.

Tarik Skubal (9%) is working back from injury and will be limited to around 90 pitches, but that should be plenty in a matchup against the lowly A’s. Kenta Maeda (5%) is also recently recovered from injury but should be capable of throwing close to 100 pitches, and he gets a great matchup himself against the Royals.

If you have Bieber (100%) or Lucas Giolito (91%) on your squad, you should think long and hard about actually starting them Tuesday. Bieber faces the Braves and Giolito gets Toronto, both among the best offenses in baseball. THE BAT X projects them for a 4.90 and 5.38 ERA, respectively, so even though they have the name value, in these matchups they’re pretty useless in fantasy.

Among THE BAT X’s top projected offenses of the day are the usual suspects like the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers and Jays, but the Twins and Tigers are also very much in the mix, especially if you’re hunting for home runs. The Twins face contact-heavy Zack Greinke and the Tigers get flyball-heavy JP Sears. Somehow Byron Buxton is rostered on just 56% of teams, so if he’s available, go pick him up for keeps. In terms of streaming, Max Kepler (2%), Alex Kirilloff (3%), Jose Miranda (36%), Joey Gallo (5%) and Edouard Julien (1%) are strong options for Minnesota, while Spencer Torkelson (9%), Matt Vierling (1%), Javier Baez (14%), Andy Ibanez (1%) and Jake Rogers (0%) are good from Detroit.

If you’re looking for speed, those same Tigers are in a great matchup. But perhaps the best and most accessible speedsters of the day will come from Cincinnati. The Reds face one of the game’s weakest starting pitchers in Patrick Corbin, and it’s a terrific matchup for steals. Elly De La Cruz (87%) is likely gone in your league, but keep an eye on his stolen base prop in the betting market. Matt McLain (31%), Jake Fraley (30%), TJ Friedl (20%), Kevin Newman (1%) and Nick Senzel (2%) will likely be good options in both fantasy and betting in this spot.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Luis Garcia (WSH, SS — 14%) vs. Brett Kennedy

Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF — 46%) at Wade Miley

Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 9%) vs. JP Sears

Jeimer Candelario (WSH, 3B — 14%) vs. Kennedy

Matt Vierling (DET, CF — 1%) vs. Sears

Matt McLain (CIN, SS — 31%) at Patrick Corbin

Kevin Newman (CIN, 2B — 1%) at Corbin

Jarren Duran (BOS, CF — 6%) vs. Dane Dunning

Javier Baez (DET, SS — 14%) vs. Sears

Dominic Smith (WSH, 1B — 1%) vs. Kennedy

Josh Lowe (TB, RF — 60%) vs. Aaron Nola

Alec Bohm (PHI, 3B — 67%) at Zach Eflin