Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Hopefully by now, in leagues where lineups lock with the first game of the day, you’re accustomed to the 11:30 AM ET deadline. This week’s early game is the St. Louis Cardinals visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates. It also features the slate’s top streamer, but trusting a pitcher with a 6.03 ERA on the last day of the head-to-head scoring period is a tall order. However, that’s exactly what you should do as Steven Matz (36% rostered in ESPN leagues) is pitching much better than his surface stats indicate. To wit, his 22% K-BB% mark is a respectable 17th-best among pitchers with at least 30 innings. His main issue has been his allowing eight homers over just 37 1/3 innings, along with being a bit snake-bit with a .350 BABIP and a 67% LOB mark. On Sunday, Matz faces a Pirates lineup sporting the eighth-lowest HR rate in baseball.
Our rule of thumb for fantasy roster management is focusing on players rostered in under 50% of ESPN leagues, to maximize the chances they’re available. That said, it is always worth investigating the status of non-elite arms. This is especially true for Sunday’s slate, since there are more hurlers landing in the 50%-75% level than usual. If you need a boost on the pitching side of the ledger, make a moment to look up Yusei Kikuchi (51%), Bailey Ober (61%), Patrick Sandoval (69%), Joe Kelly (71%), Tony Gonsolin (72%) and Alex Wood (75%).
The Sunday docket is highlighted by a doubleheader in the Bronx between the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees. The two clubs have had a couple of recent dustups involving Tim Anderson and Josh Donaldson, adding even more tension between two of the finest teams in the junior circuit. Double-dips are a great opportunity to pad saves since the primary closers aren’t likely to be used in both ends. The chief targets are Kendall Graveman (9%) for the guests and Clay Holmes (34%) for the hosts.
The last time Nathan Eovaldi pitched, he surrendered a record-tying five homers in the second inning to the Houston Astros, a team with the second-highest HR rate in the league. Next up is a Seattle Mariners lineup with league-average HR production. It may be tempting to keep Eovaldi on the bench, but the aggressive play is to assume he’ll pitch with a chip on his shoulder and rebound in a big way. He’s safe to use in traditional fantasy formats as well as DFS. One reason is because he’s backed by an offense averaging 6.6 runs per game over the past week, only bettered by a Rockies team that was playing at home all week. Most of the prominent Boston hitters are already rostered, but those needing a hitting boost should check the status of Enrique Hernandez (66%), Jackie Bradley Jr. (15%) and Christian Vazquez (41%).
An even better spot for sticks is American Family Field as the Milwaukee Brewers entertain the Washington Nationals who will send Aaron Sanchez to the hill. Sanchez has fanned only 12 batters in 22 2/3 frames, serving up four homers in that span. If Rowdy Tellez (63%) is available, he’s a must-add. Andrew McCutchen (33%), Omar Narvaez (31%) and Jace Peterson (3%) are also in play.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Aaron Hicks (NYY, CF — 5%) vs. Johnny Cueto
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 22%) at Jameson Taillon
Andrew Vaughn (CHW, LF — 40%) at Taillon
Josh Harrison (CHW, 2B — 4%) at Taillon
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 35%) at Spenser Watkins
Kyle Higashioka (NYY, C — 3%) vs. Cueto
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (NYY, SS — 14%) vs. Cueto
Mike Zunino (TB, C — 5%) at Watkins
Harold Ramirez (TB, LF — 0%) at Watkins
Ji-Man Choi (TB, 1B — 9%) at Watkins
Trent Grisham (SD, CF — 50%) at Alex Wood
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 71%) at Sandy Alcantara
Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS — 76%) at Alcantara
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 56%) at Triston McKenzie
Daulton Varsho (ARI, C — 95%) at Wade Miley
Javier Baez (DET, SS — 82%) at McKenzie
Eric Hosmer (SD, 1B — 85%) at Wood
Joey Votto (CIN, 1B — 63%) at Kikuchi
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 77%) at Sandoval
Jeimer Candelario (DET, 3B — 50%) at McKenzie